Chicago Fanatics Message Board :: View topic

Here is a very well written and insightful article on the top contenders in the Louisiana Derby. To my surprise, it was written by a woman, Emily Gullikson.

She alludes to Sueno being the "wise guy" horse in this race, covering some of the points I mentioned about his trip in the Southwest. It's also worth noting that Sueno means "Dream" in Spanish. Good choice of a name, if you're taking him tomorrow. Never underestimate the power or magic in a name.

https://www.americasbestracing.net/the- ... iana-derby

JORR would love your thoughts on the undercard as well. Enjoy the day.

What the hell is this? SABRmetrics for horses? Advanced stats/metrics to further strip the humanity out of horse racing? I always assumed the be-all/end-all for horse racing knowledge was some shady pudgeball in a trenchcoat who speaks in hushed whispers because he knows a thing or two about a horse. Now you've got me worried that nerds worshipping at the altar of excel spreadsheets might have a leg up on the good ol boy network that has propped up horse racing stereotypes for generations!

sinicalypse wrote:

It's all bullshit

Walt Williams Neck wrote:

sinicalypse wrote:

It's all bullshit

Why do you hate math, Walt?

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

Walt Williams Neck wrote:

sinicalypse wrote:

It's all bullshit

Why do you hate math, Walt?

1st Race FG Trevilion $50.80
4th Race Temprano $100
Where did Optimetric and the Fascinating Emily
Longshot Lenny of the Green Sheets picks are as good as theirs ps Euclid makes me wake up in cold sweats :drunken:

Fairgrounds Race 9- Win Lion Win...Exacta key Box...1/6 7 9 11 and 6 7 9 11/1 for sixteen dollars.

Invested about $60 in a spread P4 ticket. Hope that's not too much Walt.

Author:	Rod [ Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:47 pm ]
Post subject:	Louisiana Derby
I'm here, boys. Staying at Le Richelieu. I'll be heading out to Restaurant R'evolution soon. But before I get too loaded I want to give you my synopsis of the race. Here is the Plot, i.e. pace projector: As you can see, there is plenty of speed in here. I suspect Pletcher will have Spinoff sitting on a top effort and Johnny V. will have him forwardly placed. I think the draw spells trouble for War of Will and I am considering the bold move of leaving him off all my tickets. I think this is a great spot for Limonite and he will be my key. He should be a hefty price and he had nothing but trouble in his last race. The added distance should help him. I don't believe War of Will is the standout here many people think he is. His figs suggest that I may be correct. I'll be using Roiland, Sueno, Spinoff, and Bankit underneath. Good luck on Saturday and every other day. I will now continue with my regularly scheduled drinking.

Author:	SpiralStairs [ Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:06 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
I was there 2 weeks ago!

Author:	a retard [ Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:12 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
I was there a couple years ago. Came home with a voucher thinking I could cash it at Arlington because both it and Fairgrounds are Twin Spires tracks. WRONG. I had to mail it back to Fairgrounds. Good luck!

Author:	Dignified Rube [ Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:12 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
What do you think you're going to get on War of Will? He'll be 2-1 or less, probably closer to 1, which is too expensive. Not a fair bet. Country House is the main contender and has the most late speed in simulation. The longer distance of this race favors him down the stretch, if he is not weaving back and forth like he did in the Risen Star and losing ground. Spinoff could be the spoiler as the speed in this race, if War of Will tracks him too closely and there is a pace collapse. He should be able to hang with War of Will until the far turn, but it is unclear whether he has enough to go the distance, considering he's run only one race at two turns---his last. I liked how Sueno finished in the Southwest. If he could improve on that effort and get a better trip, he's got a chance. If you watch that race closely, you see that Sueno had nowhere to go until the back stretch. He was boxed in with horses in front and both inside and outside of him. Once he got a clear path, he took off and nearly ran down Super Steed, who had gone wide around the far turn. His final Brisnet speed figure of 93 underestimates his true speed, which is higher. Here's some tidbits on Sueno from his trainer, my guy, Keith Desormeaux: “He exudes class and he gives those typical signs of a horse that’s very confident. He’s willing to give everything he’s got whether it’s a work or a race. He’s very sound and I like the way his form is improving. It seems that he’s getting better with every race and that is conducive to his body type. He seems to be getting better numbers-wise and the way he is built says he should get better with time and that is coming together nicely.” Remember that Desormeux got a third with My Boy Jack in the Louisiana Derby last year. It's his home track. So yeah, if I'm going to try to beat War of Will, it will be with Sueno, maybe Country House, too. Those are my three.

Author:	Dignified Rube [ Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:49 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
We got the Sunland Derby coming up on Sunday, too, showcasing Baffert's Mucho Gusto. He's my Derby Horse along with Bourbon War and maybe even Sueno. https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... land-derby

Chicago Fanatics Message Board https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/

Louisiana Derby https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=116887	Page 1 of 2

Author:	Walt Williams Neck [ Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:17 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
Guys were yapping about ROI War will be even and so will Bafferts horse....then you have Oscar betting a pick 6 costing more than I bet all week...I'm trying to win you enough for a burger and a beer Have my thoughts tomorrow

Author:	Dignified Rube [ Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:38 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
Just got a gift with a DQ of the #3 horse in the 3rd at Oaklawn, who won. Had the exacta box 2,6,8 and win place with the 6. After the DQ, the order was 8, 6, 2! Very surprising to see the stewards doing their jobs, which doesn't happen at GP. Yesterday, I got shafted in a race at GP that was clearly a DQ and the stewards did nothing.

Author:	Rod [ Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:24 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
Dignified Rube wrote: Here is a very well written and insightful article on the top contenders in the Louisiana Derby. To my surprise, it was written by a woman, Emily Gullikson. She alludes to Sueno being the "wise guy" horse in this race, covering some of the points I mentioned about his trip in the Southwest. It's also worth noting that Sueno means "Dream" in Spanish. Good choice of a name, if you're taking him tomorrow. Never underestimate the power or magic in a name. https://www.americasbestracing.net/the- ... iana-derby You'd be hard-pressed to find a better handicapper than Emily. She's a partner in OptixEQ the software that I use (see above). Her trip notes are fantastic and they will save you a lot of time. I used to watch races over and over again. That is no longer necessary at the tracks that Optix covers. I try not to read other handicappers too much because I don't really want to be influenced. But I'm almost certain from the OptixNotes and OptixPlot that's she's going to land on Limonite in this race.

Author:	OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:50 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
JORR I think your premise is right. War of Will will be compromised here and overbet, but I’ve bet against him strongly twice and been way wrong on him. He doesn’t need this race to get in, so I’m not sure how hard he’ll be ridden. And you are dead-on with your call for Limonite considering his troubles in his last out. However, I think your call of the pace is off. I certainly don’t see any crazy early speed and I think it we’ll see honest fractions throughout. I totally agree on Limonite, (who got a real crappy trip last out) as well as Country House (whom Rube likes). The initial problem is that I’m not sure we’re going to see the early speed we’ve seen in the first couple of preps. That may set up well for Sueno (Rube likes him too) because he might be able to adjust mid pack more so than the closers (Limonite and Country House) and that tactical speed could mean the difference. 1. Sueno 2. Limonite 3. Country House 4. War of Will JORR would love your thoughts on the undercard as well. Enjoy the day.

Author:	Rod [ Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:01 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
OscarTangoEcho wrote: JORR would love your thoughts on the undercard as well. Enjoy the day. I'm making three big plays beside Limonite on the card (provided the prices are what I think they will be). 7th Race, Maiden Special Weight: 10) Loveatturkeyclub. This seems to be a wide open race. This horse should improve and have a decent stalking trip. 10th Race, New Orleans Handicap: 4) Noble Indy. He returns to the scene of his greatest triumph. I think we'll see him on or near the lead today and I believe Pletcher has been pointing him to this race. 11th Race, Muniz Memorial Handicap: Inspector Lynley. He fits on the figs at the distance and he had traffic trouble last out. The race prior to that he raced well against the bias. Bricks and Mortar figures to be a heavy favorite, but I think he will be beaten today. Good luck!

Author:	sinicalypse [ Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:58 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
What the hell is this? SABRmetrics for horses? Advanced stats/metrics to further strip the humanity out of horse racing? I always assumed the be-all/end-all for horse racing knowledge was some shady pudgeball in a trenchcoat who speaks in hushed whispers because he knows a thing or two about a horse. Now you've got me worried that nerds worshipping at the altar of excel spreadsheets might have a leg up on the good ol boy network that has propped up horse racing stereotypes for generations!

Author:	Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:09 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
sinicalypse wrote: What the hell is this? SABRmetrics for horses? Advanced stats/metrics to further strip the humanity out of horse racing? I always assumed the be-all/end-all for horse racing knowledge was some shady pudgeball in a trenchcoat who speaks in hushed whispers because he knows a thing or two about a horse. Now you've got me worried that nerds worshipping at the altar of excel spreadsheets might have a leg up on the good ol boy network that has propped up horse racing stereotypes for generations! It's all bullshit

Author:	Rod [ Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:10 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
Great minds...

Author:	Rod [ Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:11 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
Walt Williams Neck wrote: sinicalypse wrote: What the hell is this? SABRmetrics for horses? Advanced stats/metrics to further strip the humanity out of horse racing? I always assumed the be-all/end-all for horse racing knowledge was some shady pudgeball in a trenchcoat who speaks in hushed whispers because he knows a thing or two about a horse. Now you've got me worried that nerds worshipping at the altar of excel spreadsheets might have a leg up on the good ol boy network that has propped up horse racing stereotypes for generations! It's all bullshit Why do you hate math, Walt?

Page 1 of 2	All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group https://www.phpbb.com/

Author:	OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:34 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
These stretch runs at Fairgrounds have not been for the delicate. Lots of tradin' paint.

Author:	Rod [ Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:51 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
Walt Williams Neck wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Walt Williams Neck wrote: sinicalypse wrote: What the hell is this? SABRmetrics for horses? Advanced stats/metrics to further strip the humanity out of horse racing? I always assumed the be-all/end-all for horse racing knowledge was some shady pudgeball in a trenchcoat who speaks in hushed whispers because he knows a thing or two about a horse. Now you've got me worried that nerds worshipping at the altar of excel spreadsheets might have a leg up on the good ol boy network that has propped up horse racing stereotypes for generations! It's all bullshit Why do you hate math, Walt? 1st Race FG Trevilion $50.80 4th Race Temprano $100 Where did Optimetric and the Fascinating Emily Longshot Lenny of the Green Sheets picks are as good as theirs ps Euclid makes me wake up in cold sweats I have no idea who Emily bet in those races or if she bet at all and I don't care. Trevilion was a first starter in a field full of also rans. He wasn't a shock. Temprano was an unlikely winner. It happens. I don't make "picks". I evaluate chances. It's a small margin game, as you know. I certainly don't think Trey's Midnite Moon is the most likely winner here as he'll probably be sitting on the caboose, but he's a heck of a bet at 20/1 and I'll be firing. If he wins 1 out of 10 I'm gonna be fine.

Author:	Rod [ Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:09 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
OscarTangoEcho wrote: Fairgrounds Race 9- Win Lion Win...Exacta key Box...1/6 7 9 11 and 6 7 9 11/1 for sixteen dollars. Nice work there, OTE. We didn't quite get the pace setup we needed, Walt.

Author:	OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:12 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
Thanks JORR...this next one is wide open.

Author:	Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:45 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
Core Beliefs in the N.O. Handicap. And that pick was all math! 23% winning probability by speed and 18% W.P., and I got 10-1 on him. Five horses underneath him by odds. Saved me from going full tilt today. Florent Geroux

Author:	OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:05 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
Nice hit Rube!

Author:	Rod [ Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:55 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
I'm having a rough day, but I've got myself in an okay spot alive ten times each in the PK-3 to Roiland, Limonite, and Country House.

Author:	OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Mar 23, 2019 5:00 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Louisiana Derby
two $30 wagers tri box 3 4 6 8 10 and WPS 4 and alive on the double at least to the 3 4 6 8 any live reports, JORR?