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Sunland ...Sunland anyone have any money left?
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=116922		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sun Mar 24, 2019 1:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Sunland ...Sunland anyone have any money left?
Steve Asmussen all day all night....Been doing this for 50 years saw lots of "systems" if one worked everyone would be using it :lol:
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Sunland ...Sunland anyone have any money left?
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Steve Asmussen all day all night....Been doing this for 50 years saw lots of "systems" if one worked everyone would be using it :lol:


Who are you to say, as someone that doesn't rely on math and wouldn't know a good model even if he had access to it, that there isn't one that works? You can speak only from your frame of reference, which is very limited.

What do you think the guys do at Citadel downtown or where I used to work at Allston, sit around and play solitaire all day?
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Sunland ...Sunland anyone have any money left?
Sunland Oaks Prison of Love.....it's not for me to say.....Johnny Mathis
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Sunland ...Sunland anyone have any money left?
Dignified Rube wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Steve Asmussen all day all night....Been doing this for 50 years saw lots of "systems" if one worked everyone would be using it :lol:


Who are you to say, as someone that doesn't rely on math and wouldn't know a good model even if he had access to it, that there isn't one that works? You can speak only from your frame of reference, which is very limited.

What do you think the guys do at Citadel downtown or where I used to work at Allston, sit around and play solitaire all day?

Here you go CHAMP pick a race card any model you'd like see how many winners they have on TOP it's easy it's math and you can use it until it justifies exsistence…..just as a small sample I haven't seen it do any good :D
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Sunland ...Sunland anyone have any money left?
The local track handicapper gentleman called it with the Pletcher horse. Good job.

Very fast time for 1 1/8 mi under 1:47 and a new track record at Sunland.
Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Sun Mar 24, 2019 11:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Sunland ...Sunland anyone have any money left?
Wow, was really disappointed in how how Mucho Gusto ran. That ain't gonna get it done.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Mon Mar 25, 2019 6:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Sunland ...Sunland anyone have any money left?
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Wow, was really disappointed in how how Mucho Gusto ran. That ain't gonna get it done.

In Search of Another War Emblem
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Mon Mar 25, 2019 9:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Sunland ...Sunland anyone have any money left?
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Steve Asmussen all day all night....Been doing this for 50 years saw lots of "systems" if one worked everyone would be using it :lol:


I'll say this one time, Walt. In my most recent run, which has been a couple of months, my ROI has been 400% and as high as 600%. I banked 75% of the proceeds and started again.

So, yes, there are strategies and programs that work, when applied correctly. Patience and waiting for the right setups with odds is key. Being lucky doesn't hurt either.

How would you ever know what the fair-value of a horse is, if you you didn't use math? You do know that at least half of the single wagering bets for any race are losers a majority of the time, that is, not fair bets? It can be shown mathematically. So if you're taking these horses and many are at short odds, even if you win once or twice, over time you will lose and give it all back. The quants have an advantage, in that they know which bets are fair and have value and which don't. That is as long as the odds don't change much after post-time, which unfortunately does happen, causing distortions.

Mucho Gusto at 4-5 in the Sunland Derby was not a fair bet. Neither was War of Will at 1 in the Louisiana Derby. However, Core Beliefs at 9-1 in the New Orleans Handicap had odds more than twice its fair value.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Sunland ...Sunland anyone have any money left?
ROI of 400% means the horse goes of 4-1 bfd
Author:  312player [ Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Sunland ...Sunland anyone have any money left?
Eddie Olczyk is the best handicapper I've seen, guy routinely gives out winners, if I were a horse guy.. I'd piggyback all his plays.
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