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Tacitus, Bourbon War Stand Out in Belmont Stakes
By Eddie Olczyk, NBC Sports

We have a good field for this year’s Belmont Stakes, but not a great lineup by any stretch of the imagination. You can eliminate 4-5 horses right off the top and go from there. TACITUS is the slight morning line favorite, but don’t be surprised if the public settles on Preakness winner WAR OF WILL. They will be close in the wagering, but I solidly prefer TACITUS of the leading pair.

As for WAR OF WILL, it’s his third race in five weeks and he appears the more vulnerable of the two favorites. The way the track was playing at Pimlico, he was the horse whom you had to change your pick to that day as post-time approached. Everything played out perfectly for him. As for TACITUS, I love the run he made in the Kentucky Derby and I don’t think he liked the off track. He’s trained very well since then and is fresher than WAR OF WILL. I’m not thrilled about post position 10 for TACITUS, but it’s a mile and one-half and there’s plenty of time to get position and make his run. There’s some speed in the Belmont that will try to get free and they could go a little quick for the distance. That’s good news for TACITUS and his rally, and I’m hoping to get somewhere right around 2-1.

The other finisher to watch will be BOURBON WAR. I liked him in the Preakness, but did not care for the ride Irad Ortiz, Jr. gave him in Baltimore. He had a chance to get to the best part of the track and didn’t. The move to Mike Smith and blinkers off could really change the outlook for BOURBON WAR. I will be using him up and down my tickets. He should be a pretty decent price and I’d take 8-1 as fair odds.

The wise guy horse in the Belmont might be MASTER FENCER, who could take more money than perhaps he should. His huge rally at Churchill Downs was enhanced by being on the perfect part of the track when flying up the rail to post the fastest final quarter-mile in the Derby.

I’ll be playing exactas and trifectas in the Belmont, focused heavily on TACITUS and BOURBON WAR. That’s where I stand right now. Be sure to tune into the NBC Sports telecast where I’ll have my final thoughts after seeing how the track plays throughout the outstanding card of racing on Saturday. Making race-day adjustments is an important element of my handicapping.

Eddie's Picks

1. Tacitus
2. Bourbon War

Author:	OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:57 pm ]
Post subject:	The Belmont
Bourbon War in. A lot to like. JORR? Walt? Rube? Where you guys at on this?

Author:	Rod [ Sat Jun 01, 2019 3:43 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
I don't really like anyone better than him. Was kind of hoping Owendale would go.

Author:	OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Jun 01, 2019 3:56 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Value here in the last two at Bel today...the 4 and 5 in the 8th and the 5 6 7 and 12 in the 9th...and Maggie Wolfendale in them all

Author:	OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Jun 01, 2019 4:15 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Value here still, 4 MTP Social Paranoia and Clint Maroon

Author:	OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Jun 01, 2019 4:19 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
the 8 is great value, too. Very good race

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The Belmont https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=117744	Page 1 of 3

Author:	Rod [ Sat Jun 01, 2019 4:22 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
OscarTangoEcho wrote: Value here in the last two at Bel today...the 4 and 5 in the 8th and the 5 6 7 and 12 in the 9th...and Maggie Wolfendale in them all Maggie is so cute

Author:	Dignified Rube [ Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:21 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Walt once said take Gun Runner until he loses. That's probably a good approach for War of Will now, too, in the Belmont.

Author:	Walt Williams Neck [ Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:38 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Dignified Rube wrote: Walt once said take Gun Runner until he loses. That's probably a good approach for War of Will now, too, in the Belmont. that's sound advice... you sure I said it?

Author:	Dignified Rube [ Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:35 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Walt Williams Neck wrote: Dignified Rube wrote: Walt once said take Gun Runner until he loses. That's probably a good approach for War of Will now, too, in the Belmont. that's sound advice... you sure I said it? Yes. You said it before he won the the Breeders Classic or the Pegasus.

Author:	Dignified Rube [ Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:12 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
War of Will is in for a tough contest in this race, but he is the best horse by the metrics. He'll be up against Sir Winston and Tacitus. Sir Winston and Tacitus both have more speed than War of Will, so it'll be interesting to see whether War of Will's class holds up. Master Fencer has a shot from what he showed down the stretch in the K.D., but is expensive at 8-1. Joevia looked like a nice horse in the Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth on the mud. When other horses came threatening down the stretch, he just sped away. At lot of value for him at 30-1 on the M/L. He could be the big surprise of the race. Joevia is as good as Haikal. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PPOY5O6clY&t=109s

Author:	W_Z [ Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:11 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
i wonder if it's time to give up on bourbon war or go all in on him. i was looking into tax and it looks like he's got a bruise that's healing. probably can toss.

Author:	OscarTangoEcho [ Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:25 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
W_Z wrote: i wonder if it's time to give up on bourbon war or go all in on him. Precisely same question I asked myself this morning.

Author:	Rod [ Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:52 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
OscarTangoEcho wrote: W_Z wrote: i wonder if it's time to give up on bourbon war or go all in on him. Precisely same question I asked myself this morning. I think the blinkers messed him up last time. There should be a reasonable, though not blazing, pace in here. I think Bourbon War, Sir Winston, and Tax all look situated for good trips. Tacitus does as well, but I will be taking a stand against him. I think Master Fencer has to come from too far out of it.

Author:	OscarTangoEcho [ Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:10 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Really, really good Pick 4 at Belmont this Sat. 4 outstanding races: R8-Woody Stephens G1…9 3YO’s going only 7 Furlongs, a unique distance for most young horses. Chad Brown has two in here, Baffert has one, as does Mark Casse, who has been as hot as any trainer recently. I know the Met Mile (Race 9) is getting a lot of pub, but this may prove to be the most difficult leg. My horse…the 20/1 m/l longshot, the 8-Hog Creek Hustle…his last 4 races…came in 2nd in the Lecomte to War of Will…the Risen Star where he finished 4th, to Country House and War of Will…got bumped badly and forced wide in the LA Derby (putting a line through that)...then, finished 2nd in the Pat Day Mile…Lanerie brings him home at a huge price. 8/1 2 3 6 7 9 R9 The Met Mile-G1 McKinzie. This horse is not f*cking around (as can be seen by the most impressive workout tabs I’ve seen in a long time). Hoping Firenze Fire and Mitole take the money. I might be making him a single here. Although I do like Coal Front a bit, too. 2/1 R10 The Manhattan G1 1-Raging Bull…I think Castellano/Brown teaming up off the rail on the inner turf could prove profitable off a m/l of 10/1. They could save a lot of ground to close into. Robert Bruce won The Million at AP and is a solid 2 for 4 on Belmont Turf, so he fits. Bricks and Mortar is just simply outstanding and deserves to be 7/5, so I won’t bet against. But don’t sleep on the 10-Channel Maker (Mott/Rosario) who won the Man O’ War here at Belmont in May…the 4-Qurban is no slouch either, but not a win contender IMHO. 8 1/ 3 10 R11 The Belmont I’d like to believe in Bourbon War, I really would. I just don’t see the pace setup up he’ll need, nor any reason to doubt either Tacitus or War of Will (I also keep ending up on Spinoff, which I can’t readily explain). I can find reasons to stay away from Tax (a couple of pedestrian workouts and a crappy KD) and Sir Winston (breeding/distance; although I did smoke Winston’s for a short time in my teens) Will be bummed if I let Master Fencer beat me, but you gotta draw a line somewhere…and Intrepid Heart couldn’t even beat him in the G-3 Peter Pan. And just not interested in either the 2-Everfast or the 1-Joevia, although he’s the type of horse that blows up my exotics. 9 10 5 6 / 1 working backwards and haven't looked at the earlier races or Friday....so you'll have to wait on my misguided thoughts for those

Author:	OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Jun 01, 2019 4:46 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
pretty good coverage from the B team on FS2 @ Belmont today...Richard Migliore's insight, while valuable, is distracting due to his "Family Guy level of parody" of bad teeth.

Author:	Dignified Rube [ Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:37 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: I'm firing. And yeah, the 6th is WIDE OPEN. I may take a crack with Gidu depending on the prices. I could also see Servis sweeping this PK-3 starting with the winner he had in the fourth. No one taking the Illinois horse, #3 Multiplier, in the 6th at BEL? He must be primed, because his odds are low compared to his win prob. I'll take him. I always thought he'd make a better turf horse than dirt.

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Author:	Rod [ Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:55 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Woody Stephens- I love Hog Creek Hustle as a horse. He's never given anything but 100%. The horse has a heart as big as a whale. Unfortunately, he's running up against an animal I think may turn out to be the best of the 2016 generation when it's all said and done. I will be singling Honest Mischief in that race. Metropolitan- This is easily the best race of the year so far. McKinzie is a tough motherfucker. No surprise if he wins this race. I'll be taking a stand against him though. Prince Lucky appeared to dislike the going the last time out in the slop. All his other races have been excellent. He's a sneaky horse who I think has a real shot in here. He should sit right behind Promises Fulfilled and get a good set-up. I'll also be using Promises Fulfilled. The front end is almost always a good place to be in this era of racing, especially on big days when they usually make the tracks super fast if possible. If he gets a breather somewhere for an eighth of a mile, he may be tough to catch. Manhattan- Tough race. All those Chad Browns. Hard to say which one(s) he has on top edge and pointed for this race. I think Bricks and Mortar is the best of them but this may not be his spot. I'm going to go four deep here with 6, 8, 9, and 10. Bandua is probably too cheap, but there doesn't look to be much pace in this race, and he could bounce along on the front. He gets a 49 half in a strangle-fest and all of a sudden he may have a chance to be the lobster that makes the ticket. Belmont- I think Tacitus is the most likely winner, but like I said above, I'm taking a stand against him and against War of Will too. I'm going to use Bourbon War, Sir Winston, and Intrepid Heart who Pletcher seems to have been pointing for this race.

Author:	Dignified Rube [ Fri Jun 07, 2019 8:53 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
The irony of this race is that hardly any of these horse are bred for the distance according to their sire and dam stats. War of Will has the longest pedigree on his dam side at 10.7f, followed by Master Fencer and Tax with about a 8f average.

Author:	a retard [ Fri Jun 07, 2019 9:38 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Edzo wrote: https://www.xpressbet.com/component/content/article/11-xb360/xb-blog/4821-eddie-olczyk-s-2019-belmont-stakes-thoughts Tacitus, Bourbon War Stand Out in Belmont Stakes By Eddie Olczyk, NBC Sports We have a good field for this year’s Belmont Stakes, but not a great lineup by any stretch of the imagination. You can eliminate 4-5 horses right off the top and go from there. TACITUS is the slight morning line favorite, but don’t be surprised if the public settles on Preakness winner WAR OF WILL. They will be close in the wagering, but I solidly prefer TACITUS of the leading pair. As for WAR OF WILL, it’s his third race in five weeks and he appears the more vulnerable of the two favorites. The way the track was playing at Pimlico, he was the horse whom you had to change your pick to that day as post-time approached. Everything played out perfectly for him. As for TACITUS, I love the run he made in the Kentucky Derby and I don’t think he liked the off track. He’s trained very well since then and is fresher than WAR OF WILL. I’m not thrilled about post position 10 for TACITUS, but it’s a mile and one-half and there’s plenty of time to get position and make his run. There’s some speed in the Belmont that will try to get free and they could go a little quick for the distance. That’s good news for TACITUS and his rally, and I’m hoping to get somewhere right around 2-1. The other finisher to watch will be BOURBON WAR. I liked him in the Preakness, but did not care for the ride Irad Ortiz, Jr. gave him in Baltimore. He had a chance to get to the best part of the track and didn’t. The move to Mike Smith and blinkers off could really change the outlook for BOURBON WAR. I will be using him up and down my tickets. He should be a pretty decent price and I’d take 8-1 as fair odds. The wise guy horse in the Belmont might be MASTER FENCER, who could take more money than perhaps he should. His huge rally at Churchill Downs was enhanced by being on the perfect part of the track when flying up the rail to post the fastest final quarter-mile in the Derby. I’ll be playing exactas and trifectas in the Belmont, focused heavily on TACITUS and BOURBON WAR. That’s where I stand right now. Be sure to tune into the NBC Sports telecast where I’ll have my final thoughts after seeing how the track plays throughout the outstanding card of racing on Saturday. Making race-day adjustments is an important element of my handicapping. Eddie's Picks 1. Tacitus 2. Bourbon War

Author:	OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:59 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Anybody playing Belmont today? Some sneaky good cards. The 6th race has scratched to 9 runners and I swear I could make a case for all of them. I'm a big fan of 2-Stan The Man in the 8th (10-1 m/l) and 11-Allish (10-1) in the 11th race. It's been really fast there this weekend. JORR I'm going to re visit the Met based on your thoughts. I just think McKinzie is really primed for this race.

Author:	Rod [ Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:03 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
I'm firing. And yeah, the 6th is WIDE OPEN. I may take a crack with Gidu depending on the prices. I could also see Servis sweeping this PK-3 starting with the winner he had in the fourth.

Author:	OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:25 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Walked away for a bit, didn't realize they were doing some sort of horse "show", weaving dozens of horses in and out of formations. For a moment I thought I was watching the most bizarre post-parade.

Author:	Rod [ Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:28 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
OscarTangoEcho wrote: Walked away for a bit, didn't realize they were doing some sort of horse "show", weaving dozens of horses in and out of formations. For a moment I thought I was watching the most bizarre post-parade. It was similar to the Tempel Lipizzans.

Author:	Rod [ Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:35 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
The guy sitting in front of me owns the 7 horse in the Tremont. I don't have a whole lot of interest in that race, but these guys will probably be going nuts if he wins.