Next Saturday....anyone remember Dosage?

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Who ya' got, Walt?

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When you look at the 1 1/8 mi. times of some of these horses, they are slow.

The three fastest horses are Maximum Security, Cutting Humor and Plus Que Parfait. Cutting Humor set a Sunland Derby record time.

I think the winner be one of those three. Plus Que Parfait looked good in the UAE Derby.

Roadster Baffert means Derby

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Roadster is his third best horse, Walt!

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Rube, you're spot on with Plus Que Parfait. I've mentioned him several times in previous posts. That UAE Derby was outstanding (not to mention how he galloped out best after 1 3/16). Going to be one of the 5 or 6 best prices, and I expect him to be in the Superfecta. No pace up front, you'll need a horse that can run comfortably in traffic. I think he's a contender.

Let's just keep this between you and I, ok.

I want a price shot JORR and Rube and OTE Dubai horses just don't run worth a fuck at Churchill

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Walt, only six of the field of twenty have ever run at Churchill. Plus Que Parfait has run there twice. And he was in the money both times.

So sorry ETO...once I saw UAE I scratched the horse off my list....last year I got fucked over by Mendellson the best finish coming from UAE was Lani 8th ….;plus I'm not a big fan of how a horse runs out...…..remember Thunder Snow?Until a horse hits the board coming out of Dubai I'll pay it no mind

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Before winning the Sand Sifter Derby what did you think of Plus Que Parfait Risen Star?

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

It was horrid and he has no excuses. I am just (as always) looking for value. He will be dismissed by the wiseguys as well as the general public (not the least of reasons being they can't pronounce his name). I just really like his last race, he's bred to run this distance and has been galloping out to prove it. The fact that he is ended up twice in the money here at Churchill is also a big positive for a young horse.

I still think Omaha Beach is the best horse in this race by far. And there will be many others worthy of money and attention. All I'm suggesting is keep an eye on him.

You can't complain about the Risen Star after Plus Que Parfait won the UAE Derby. It's about the horse's current form, not what he did two races ago. He's peaking at the right time.

The sire of Plus Que Parfait, Point of Entry, was a stand-out turf horse at the longer distances, including getting a second-place finish in the Breeders Cup Turf by under a length. There is a lot to like in this horse's breeding.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Point_Of_Entry

gotta side with WWN on this. there were people saying Mendelssohn was going to break that mold and didn't come close. something about the trip across the world so soon. i'd only include PQP in a superfecta of some kind.

I tend to agree with Walt on this one too, but I have come to respect OTE's opinions so I'm probably going to give the horse a little deeper look rather than dismissing him out of hand. I wouldn't be real happy sitting here in a week saying I would have hit the super if I had only thrown OTE's rat from Dubai in for third and fourth.

As far is Mendelssohn is concerned, I think he was a truly great horse who was just mismanaged. That's not a hard criticism of O'Brien. Obviously Derby Fever can strike even the most cold-blooded guys in the horse business. In fact, maybe those type of guys are more vulnerable than others. They know when they have a top horse. They don't want to leave a Derby on the table if winning it is in any way possible.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I'm in no means want to talk anyone out of a horse …….but we all have been fucked in the ass by a UAE Derby horse JORR remember
Mubtaahij

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

https://youtu.be/Ui0CEeIF0Yw

Ain't never saw shit like this

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

If you rank the horses by breeding on the sire side, I'd put them in this order.

1. Game Winner (Son of undefeated Candy Ride)
2. Vekoma (Son of undefeated Candy Ride)
3. Plus Que Parfait (Son of multiple G1 Winner, Point of Entry)
4. Spinoff (Son of Breeders Cup Classic Runner-Up, Hard Spun)
5. Maximum Security (Son of undefeated Breeders Cup Juvenile Winner)
6. Roadster (Son of Quality Road)
7. Code of Honor (Son of Noble Mission)

Not a bad list at all. I can see Spinoff being in the mix of it with his speed.

I'll give this to Game Winner., he looks like a real race horse. I heard Baffert talking him up that he's ready to run a big race.

Baffert Tri Box....next question

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I didn't see the speed figures of the horses until today. That has changed my thinking on the contenders.

The top tier is Omaha Beach, Maximum Security and Game Winner. I give Game Winner the edge over Roadster because of his breeding and because Roadster is not a presser. Any horse not forwardly placed in this race will be fatal. Plus, Baffert says Game Winner is ready to run a big one. Roadster would be a good choice, too, with Geroux.

Omaha Beach and Maximum Security otherwise have the highest speed figs. Could another horse jump up and overtake these horses? Possibly Vekoma or Code of Honor, judging by COH's recent bullet and sub 0:47 workout for 4f. By My Standards is too slow. So is Cutting Humor, Long Range Toddy, Tacitus and the rest.

As a long shot play, I find Spinoff intriguing as a lightly run horse. Again, would need a big jump up or bounce-back after the Louisiana Derby performance. The horse is speedy and has nice breeding as a son of Hard Spun.

I don't care about the UAE Derby monkey-on-the-back for Plus Que Parfait. A win in a big race like that is a win. He's in good form, and I like his breeding. He's 2nd tier and worth a shot at a good price.

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

PPs: http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploa ... 1260875782

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

12-11-10-9 superfecta!

Kentucky Oaks PPs: http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1488003

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

Alright you degenerates...

I am somebody who typically only bets the derby. What are some of your favorite plays?

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I have the entire Derby Day Brisnet PPs, can someone tell me how to link it online? I used to do it in the past, but I forgot how I did it!!

Anyway, Frank, the favorite has won the Derby 6 years straight. I do not see how the favorite Omaha Beach doesn't do it this year, hopefully.

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That would mean something, if there were a strong favorite in this race, but there isn't any. Omaha Beach has not dazzled in any of his races. His speed figures are rather pedestrian with his ceiling being a 100 Brisnet.

I've ran the numbers and there isn't a horse with a higher winning probability than 16%. The race is completely open, unlike in previous years. Justify's winning prob. last year was close to 30%.

The last 1/8 mi for most of these horses is going to be brutal. Maximum Security has the strongest LP speed by far. If he progresses any in this race, he will be tough to beat. Vekoma rates strongest in E1 and E2. I think Mr. Zen, Castellano, knows exactly how to ride this horse. He's ridden in the Derby many times.

Otherwise, I might be going in on Win Win Win, grandson of one of the greats in Sunday Silence. He put up a 97 figure in the Blue Grass despite having a troubled trip, where Irad Ortiz Jr. had to check him midway around the far turn. He managed to get wide and finish 2nd by three, when he was closing fast on Vekoma. Check out the workout footage of him from 4/28, when he was training at the same time as Country House and Tacitus. He blew by them both down the stretch. Visually, he looks like a fabulous horse.

I don't know if I'd say he "dazzled", but he won two of the strongest preps. I won't be using him on top of any tickets but he's certainly earned favoritism in the race.

Vekoma has no chance in the race. And I'm not sure what figs you're using but I don't believe Maximum Security is fast enough to take the lead in here unless it's a situation like the Florida Derby where no one else wants it.

Win Win Win is an interesting horse in here. A strong effort against a serious bias in the Bluegrass and he's flat out one of the faster horses in the field. If he gets any kind of pace to run at, he's a threat.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Omaha Beach out.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Now we'll have to handicap for weather

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Whatever speed there is in the race, Vekoma will be able to run with them until the quarter pole, which puts him in a position to win. I think Castellano will be more careful this race in distributing Vekoma's speed, because he knows he'll need something for that last quarter. He got a good post at 6 and has the hottest jockey coming in. And the horse has heart. I see no reason to be pessimistic about his chances.