I have a feeling JORR is going to have a huge day
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| Del Mar Classic and Oaks https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=118523 |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:39 am ] |
| Post subject: | Del Mar Classic and Oaks |
I can't understand why the so-called "experts" are trying to be cute with their picks in the Classic, when the M/L has it right with Seeking the Soul, Pavel and Quip. Seeking the Soul is classiest horse by far and ranks in the top three by speed. Both Pavel and Quip are coming off peak performances. However, it seemed to me that Seeking the Soul and War Story had the best late kick in their last races. I don't believe that last 110 Bris figure that Pavel put up. That's a stretch when the horse looked like he was tiring into the wire. On top of that, look what Preservationalist did in his last race, who beat Pavel. You might get lucky with a Seeking the Soul, War Story exacta in either order, if War Story can repeat his solid performance in the Monmouth Cup. Don't talk to me about Campaign when he's had only one graded stakes win, a G3 in his last in the Cougar. The Oaks is much more challenging, where no horse should be worth more than 5-1. You're not getting any value on Cambier Parc at 5-2, even though she is the winning-est horse in the field. I'd rather roll the dice on Keeper of the Stars at 10-1 or Lady Prancelot at 8-1. Mucho Unusual is very consistent, but is a little light on speed. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Del Mar Classic and Oaks |
I have a feeling JORR is going to have a huge day
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Del Mar Classic and Oaks |
Yeah, I think I would go with Mucho Unusual in the Oaks on the back on her win in the San Clemente. The 91 figure doesn't reflect how well she did down the stretch in that race to get wide and into the clear after Apache Princess angled right to block her. Her momentum slowed and still she re-fired into the wire. The question is whether she can navigate through all the traffic in this big field to get running room so she can stretch out. I don't think she'll be able to do it wide around the far turn. I would take a flier on Keeper of the Stars if she gets a good price. Curious what JORR says about this one. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Del Mar Classic and Oaks |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: I have a feeling JORR is going to have a huge day  I hope so, Walt!I think the Baffert horse is sneaky as hell in the PC. They obviously bought and imported him for these Grade 1 stakes. I think you can draw a line right through the last one as it was likely longer than he wants to go. Also, Tenfold has a chance in there. He's a proven winner at the distance and ten panels is more than most of these guys really want. Pavel has good form but a buck and a quarter is stretching his limitations. In any case, I'm going to try to get live to Querelle in the last race in some horizontals. |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:18 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Del Mar Classic and Oaks |
I don't follow west coast racing, why do you like Querelle? And does Espinoza have a new nickname yet. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:46 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Del Mar Classic and Oaks |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: I don't follow west coast racing, why do you like Querelle? I noticed the horse on 4/20 when she was shut off on the rail and got scared. She had a real excuse and I added her to my stable mail. Then she was a vet scratch on May 18 and she was scratched again on June 15. They brought her back on the dirt at Delmar on July 26. She looked outstanding in the paddock and ran a credible race at 17/1. She definitely belongs on the grass. |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Del Mar Classic and Oaks |
Don't know if I'll be playing Del Mar, but I am playing Saratoga...like the chalk for the 7th, 8th and 9th (Irish Mias 7th and Morticia 8th might both be singles) In the 9th Brown's Regal Glory is a deserved favorite, but I'll also include his other horse the 4-Blowout and also include the 1-Varenka...The 10th (The Alabama) is crazy, despite the presence of a legitimate 8/5 m/l favorite Dunbar Road..spreading wide here...as well as the finale that has at least 6 horses that I could make an argument for (2,3,5,6,9 and the 10) good luck people |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Aug 17, 2019 4:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Del Mar Classic and Oaks |
Street Band in the Alabama Sophie flew in means business |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Aug 17, 2019 5:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Del Mar Classic and Oaks |
OK finished very strong at Saratoga so i need to re invest at del mar...any thoughts?..JORR Rube Walt? and yes Walt ive been promoting Sophie from the beginning...she is outstanding particularly with fillies |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Del Mar Classic and Oaks |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: OK finished very strong at Saratoga so i need to re invest at del mar...any thoughts?..JORR Rube Walt? and yes Walt ive been promoting Sophie from the beginning...she is outstanding particularly with fillies I think Blended Citizen has a chance in the 7th. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Del Mar Classic and Oaks |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: OK finished very strong at Saratoga so i need to re invest at del mar...any thoughts?..JORR Rube Walt? and yes Walt ive been promoting Sophie from the beginning...she is outstanding particularly with fillies You're getting a good price on Ritzy A.P. in the Handicap at 12-1, who's in peak form, but is on the risky side. He's got a good speed distribution. My turf model likes Marckie's Water best with a 30% winning prob., who's FV is 2-1, about where he's priced. Has a 55% winning LP estimate in a race at 1 3/8 mi. where that late speed will come in handy. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Del Mar Classic and Oaks |
I had Hollywood Hills in the 8th to win at 30-1 and he gets place for $15. Ughh. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Del Mar Classic and Oaks |
had to play Pavel at 5-1 |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Del Mar Classic and Oaks |
#$@%&*$ horse that never had won a stakes race wins the Classic. Embarrassing, just embarrassing for the sport as a whole and California racing. You could throw all PP data for that race out the window. Might as well have been a roulette wheel. Absolutely a disgrace of a race. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Del Mar Classic and Oaks |
The Oaks actually had integrity as a race, in that the results were quantifiable, but the Classic had none whatsoever. It's unconscionable for a grade 1 race and even less so for one of California's premier races. California racing is now officially in the toilet. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sun Aug 18, 2019 11:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Del Mar Classic and Oaks |
Dignified Rube wrote: #$@%&*$ horse that never had won a stakes race wins the Classic. Embarrassing, just embarrassing for the sport as a whole and California racing. You could throw all PP data for that race out the window. Might as well have been a roulette wheel. Absolutely a disgrace of a race. This is a weak group of older horses. I have to tell you, any mile and a quarter race where Seeking The Soul is favored is by definition, weak. That's why I went hunting for a price in there. None of these horses really seems to want to go the classic distance. Maybe Hofburg will step up late in the season. Other than that, I expect a three year old to win the BC Classic. |
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