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| Travers Stakes https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=118574 |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Travers Stakes |
Eddie O. is right on the money in this one favoring Code of Honor and Velazquez. He looked great in the Dwyer with excellent late kick down the stretch. His 93 Bris final figure understates how good he was in the race in having to run against a slow pace, when he finished with a 115 LP. No doubt in my mind he can get the classic distance as a son of Noble Mission, who was turf champion at the G1 level overseas. I'd put Brad Cox's Owendale second after his peak performance victory in the Ohio Derby at 1 1/8 mi. He has an advantage over the other horses in being better rested, whereas Mucho Gusto has had to make a quick turn-around on less than one month's rest, not to mention shipping in from the West Coast. Distance is a barrier for him, in that 1 1/8 mi. seems to be his max. Baffert has run him too hard with this being his fourth race in as many months, after he peaked in his third race off the layoff in the Haskel against Maximum Security. You could see he was finished at the wire. After Owendale would come Tax and then Tacitus after Tax dug in in the Jim Dandy. Mucho Gusto will fade for fifth. Here's what Eddie had to say. I didn't see his pick after I had made mine. CODE OF HONOR (4/1) was my pick on the First Saturday in May in the Kentucky Derby and while we won’t get another crack at betting him at 14/1 odds, he’s still the horse I’m going to center my bets around. I thought he ran a phenomenal race in the Derby, especially considering the way that race unfolded didn’t reflect what I think is his preferred running style. I think he’s a ‘one-run’ type of horse and his early move into contention in the slop at Churchill Downs may have caused him to tire a bit late. Furthermore, I liked CODE OF HONOR’s comeback race in the G3 Dwyer at Belmont on July 6. He looked great down the lane and that should set him up perfectly for a big Travers run. Plus, I LOVE the fact that he has two of the best of all time in his corner – trainer Shug McGaughey and jockey John Velazquez. They’ve visited the Travers winner’s circle a combined four times, with Velazquez winning aboard Flower Alley in 2005 and McGaughey scoring with Easy Goer (1989), Rhythm (1990) and Coronado’s Quest (1998). I do question (1) whether CODE OF HONOR will have enough pace close into and (2) whether or not he’s truly a 1 1/4-mile, two-turn horse. On the bright side, assuming he gets a fair pace to run at, he may only need to run the last 3/8-mile of the race. Underneath CODE OF HONOR I’m going to focus on three horses. TACITUS (5/2) is a logical Travers favorite but he’s the type of horse that always comes with an excuse in hand. Too far back in the Derby. Too wide a trip in the Belmont. Bad start in the Jim Dandy. At some point, you just have to stop betting horses like that to win and use them underneath…at least until they prove otherwise. OWENDALE (6/1) has yet to prove himself at this level but his resume does feature a pair of G3 wins in the Lexington at Keeneland and the Ohio Derby at Thistledown. He was a close-up third in the G1 Preakness and his inside post should ensure he doesn’t lose much ground around the oval. LOOKING AT BIKINIS (10/1) was the beaten favorite on a muddy track in the Curlin Stakes here at Saratoga on July 26 but any number of factors could’ve beaten him that day. Perhaps it was the muddy sealed track or maybe it was the fact that it was his first try around two turns. One thing is for certain – Javier Castellano is the most prolific jockey in Travers history, with six wins in 11 starts and a lifetime ROI of $10.61. The fact that he’s aboard this horse isn’t lost on me. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Travers Stakes |
Florent Geroux is an absolute master on turf how he rode #5 Indian Blessing in the Woodford, waiting just at the right time to make a rail bid coming out of the far turn. Nearly pulled it off, but lost right at the wire. I had him to place at 10-1. Monsieur Geroux 
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Travers Stakes |
Sadlers Joy 7-2 all over that |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Travers Stakes |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: Sadlers Joy 7-2 all over that I had him myself in an exacta box with Channel Maker and Channel Cat. But the smart money was hitting Annals of Time hard, that he went off at 5-2. He didn't have the numbers to stack up against the others, so his last race must have been sensational for everyone to come in on him. I thought Annals of Time was too short of a price. No value there. Now the feature race, oh boy. Tax never gets respect, but he's getting the best price of the top selections at 10-1, followed by Owendale at 11-1. I'll play it a couple different ways. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Travers Stakes |
Dignified Rube wrote: Walt Williams Neck wrote: Sadlers Joy 7-2 all over that I had him myself in an exacta box with Channel Maker and Channel Cat. But the smart money was hitting Annals of Time hard, that he went off at 5-2. He didn't have the numbers to stack up against the others, so his last race must have been sensational for everyone to come in on him. I thought Annals of Time was too short of a price. No value there. Now the feature race, oh boy. Tax never gets respect, but he's getting the best price of the top selections at 10-1, followed by Owendale at 11-1. I'll play it a couple different ways. not Gaga over anyone so Endorsed ready for the race of his life. Rosario up got a hunch bet a bunch |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Travers Stakes |
Way to go, Code of Honor! Nailed that exacta. 
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Aug 24, 2019 5:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Travers Stakes |
Dignified Rube wrote: Way to go, Code of Honor! Nailed that exacta. nice |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Travers Stakes |
I'm still kicking myself in the balls because I had four of five in the PK-5 that paid $6,300.00 and I got busted by Midnight Bisou. I know that the right way to play horizontals is to take strong stands against favorites and I tossed her, Tacitus, and Shancealot. I don't really think I put together a bad ticket but it only would have cost me another $18 to throw her in. You're not supposed to think that way though. You have to make decisions. She had never won at 9 panels prior to yesterday. I singled Annals Of Time and I was five deep in the Travers. |
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