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Kentucky Downs
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=118645		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:06 am ]
Post subject:  Kentucky Downs
opens today ...one of the greatest challenges of the year for us BDH'S
Author:  Rod [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
I'm ready to go!

Also, I'm very interested in Bal Harbour in the Woodward.
Author:  W_Z [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
Mr Cub in R8. 8-1 M/L. could take a look there too.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
I like Yoshida in the Woodward after getting hung widest in the Whitney. Also think Toms d'Etat has a good shot after being handridden the last sixteenth in the Alydar.

Unfortunately, not a lot of value in the race according to the M/L, but that could change with the live odds. If you want value, you have to look to Bal Harbour and Mongolian Groom.
Author:  W_Z [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
Vino Rosso scratched for the Woodward. That might throw things off and Yoshida could be a 2-1 fav.
Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
First day off in about two weeks, so I finally get to do some handicapping. I'm going to try to beat some chalk today. Just not a fan of Yoshida and I think Preservationist is the best horse in this race. I also think Wooderson will fall through the cracks and be a big price for Pletcher/J.Ortiz. Mongolian Groom paid huge prices his last two races and will also be of great value.

I'm also going to try to beat Santa Monica in the 10th race. Looking for the 1-Empress of the Nile (m/l 8-1) or Brown's Fools Gold to provide the mild upset.

I haven't looked at Kentucky Downs yet. Very challenging place to handicap. Hell, I have trouble just figuring out where the f*cking finish line is there. Good luck boys.
Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
KD Race 8 great competition...I'm boxing 4 horses in the exacta 1-Snapper Sinclair 8/1, Hembree 4/1, 9-Mr Cub 9/1 (via Walt) and your big sleeper 10-Great Wide Open out of Ireland at 10/1...will probably float up from there

Saratoga Race 9 the 3- Arrifina debut was masterful, I look for her to continue to get better actually in her 2nd...but it is wide open including Linda Rice's claim 7-My Roxy Girl..also 11-Take Charge Aubrey as well as the 1 and the 2...wide open...
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
Could be a really good exacta if Bal Harbor or Mongolian Groom can hit place. Worth playing underneath, but I don't think either can win.

EX: 7,9/2,4,7,9

I can't get excited about Preservationalist. Not generally a good idea to take a horse who's fallen out of form. This one is fourth off the layoff. He was not in good form in third off the layoff, when he should have been. Jerkins was not to happy with Alvarado last time with him trying to outrun McKinzie out of the gate from outside. Plus, this race is at SAR, not BEL.

I like my two jockeys in Rosario and Ortiz. Jr.
Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
I don't disagree with your points, however from what I've read Preservationist made a bad trip and wasn't comfortable in that race. Since that time he has been training much better in the am at Saratoga and good be poised to bounce back.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
KD Race 8 great competition...I'm boxing 4 horses in the exacta 1-Snapper Sinclair 8/1, Hembree 4/1, 9-Mr Cub 9/1 (via Walt) and your big sleeper 10-Great Wide Open out of Ireland at 10/1...will probably float up from there

Saratoga Race 9 the 3- Arrifina debut was masterful, I look for her to continue to get better actually in her 2nd...but it is wide open including Linda Rice's claim 7-My Roxy Girl..also 11-Take Charge Aubrey as well as the 1 and the 2...wide open...

2-4-9 tri kd
Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
KD Race 8 great competition...I'm boxing 4 horses in the exacta 1-Snapper Sinclair 8/1, Hembree 4/1, 9-Mr Cub 9/1 (via Walt) and your big sleeper 10-Great Wide Open out of Ireland at 10/1...will probably float up from there

Saratoga Race 9 the 3- Arrifina debut was masterful, I look for her to continue to get better actually in her 2nd...but it is wide open including Linda Rice's claim 7-My Roxy Girl..also 11-Take Charge Aubrey as well as the 1 and the 2...wide open...

2-4-9 tri kd


That is a very good looking horse
Author:  Rod [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
The 11 just busted me out of a GIANT exacta there. I had 1 on top of 8 for $20.
Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
I'm telling you Kentucky Downs is just over my head. Snapper Sinclair pays $22 :shock: I should have just bet him across the board because exotics here are just so difficult to manage.
Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
This jockey intro thing needs to go away. And the person that came up with the idea needs to be punished. Severely.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
preservationist 7-2 all in
Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
alive to 5 7 and 8...come on Wooderson...nice family connections for this race
Author:  Rod [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
What the fuck! That rat has to sneak through there.
Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
Boom! What a ride.
Author:  Rod [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
That's a bad fucking beat.

Image
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
If I was going to get beat, that's how it was going to happen.

For a measely $2 bucks more, I could have that fricking exacta.

Image
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
there have been some really good races today
Author:  Rod [ Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
there have been some really good races today



Yes!
Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
Taking a stab at the ever challenging Kentucky Downs...haven't finished yet but here are a couple of thoughts


Race 2 the 7-Fareeq will take a lot of money but has never run this far, should be vulnerable...I'll look to the 4-Kiss my Note eight trips on the turf, 6 in the money against a field that doesn't have a lot of turf experience...the 9-He's no Saint is a solid horse but may need a race off the layoff Ward's 11-Alien Season will get a good trip from outside but like others is stretching out..the 12 and the 13 each could make some noise from the outside...wide open

Race 8-I'm going to use a combination of MY GUY 12-Cowboy Culture who will be closing furiously despite a slow pace, as well as the 3-Combatent and the 6-Eckersly and the 10-Midnight Tea, time who might just steal it on the lead

Race10-challenging 10+f race while there are several I like... think the money will eventually fall on both the 6-Temple City Terror and the 10-Coilean Bawn, I'll look to both the 2-Summer in Saratoga and the 3-Barbadolla (Gereoux) to provide value...

Good Luck
Author:  Rod [ Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
Fareeq has a huge pace advantage, but I might try Brerry if his price stays close to where it is.
Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
Kentucky Downs Thurs 9/12

Race 1 the 10 Sniper Kitten may take a lot of money which is good news because that horse is vulnerable…the 9-Applicator is taking early money, but I really like the 6-Memory Bank…Stidham’s ROI in shipping and 1st time starts, plus the gelding is 9/11 ITM at this distance, make it a great value

Race 2 is way difficult...I do like the 11-Yellen, may have needed that last race at Sar…The 8-Emily’s Oasis could be a value off the bench (American Pharoah horses have had a nice start)…very difficult

Race 3 while I’m not a fan of Kitten’s Joy’s horses, the 2-Enchanting Kitten is coming back off a 2nd here at KD two weeks ago, the only horse (and a logical one) running back in this field and should have an advantage


Race 10…very odd…no real turf success in runners, nor pedigree…no real good turf jocks…11 horses going forward including one that is 11 and has raced 80 f*cking times! Let him take some time off for f*ck’s sake…I ended up on the English Channel sired 12-Tweety Show…2 races back had a nice showing on the turf at 1 3/8 albeit lower level…the 8-Peekacho had a nice trip (again lower) at Ind on a yielding surface which may be similar to this one…good luck with this mess
Author:  Rod [ Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
I'm interested in a few horses today.

In the fourth race, 14 Hug The Munny had trouble in traffic last out, should improve here. The pace scenario doesn't look the best, but I'm hoping to get lucky.

In the fifth, the 9 Summer Clothes looked awesome in the paddock last out. I believe it was a prep for today's race.

In the seventh, 8 Hermajestycommands had a lot of trouble in her last at Ellis and galloped out strong.

In the ninth, 7 Life Mission isn't the best horse in the race, but he is a live longshot.
Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Kentucky Downs
Quote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Kentucky Downs Thurs 9/12

Race 1 the 10 Sniper Kitten may take a lot of money which is good news because that horse is vulnerable (CORRECT)…the 9-Applicator is taking early money (EVENTUAL WINNER, SHOULD HAVE SEEN), but I really like the 6-Memory Bank (WAY WRONG)…Stidham’s ROI in shipping and 1st time starts, plus the gelding is 9/11 ITM at this distance, make it a great value

Race 2 is way difficult...I do like the 11-Yellen (FINISHED 2nd PAID $8...SHOUTOUT TO LARRY YELLIN), may have needed that last race at Sar…The 8-Emily’s Oasis (FINISHED 3RD) could be a value off the bench (American Pharoah horses have had a nice start)…very difficult

Race 3 while I’m not a fan of Kitten’s Joy’s horses, the 2-Enchanting Kitten is coming back off a 2nd here at KD two weeks ago, the only horse (and a logical one) running back in this field and should have an advantage (CHALK-WON)


Race 10…very odd…no real turf success in runners, nor pedigree…no real good turf jocks…11 horses going forward including one that is 11 and has raced 80 f*cking times! Let him take some time off for f*ck’s sake…I ended up on the English Channel sired 12-Tweety Show (FINISHED 2ND grrrr)…2 races back had a nice showing on the turf at 1 3/8 albeit lower level…the 8-Peekacho (FINISHED 1st) had a nice trip (again lower) at Ind on a yielding surface which may be similar to this one…good luck with this mess



and yet good handicapping doesn't always mean $...back at it tomorrow
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