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Preakness
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Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Tue May 15, 2007 3:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Preakness
I will post my thoughts Thursday/Friday. Should be interesting with the Top 3 returning from the Derby and a handful of new horses.
Author:  Woodridge Ryan [ Tue May 15, 2007 3:36 pm ]
Post subject: 
Is that this Sunday? Maybe I'll open my sportsbook account up for the weekend plays.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Tue May 15, 2007 3:39 pm ]
Post subject: 
Saturday at Pimlico Race Course outside of Baltimore. Coverage starts at 4:00 PM on NBC and the race will go off about 5:05 or so. I expect Street Sense to be a heavy favorite off his win in the Derby. He'll be in the 2-1 range. Hard Spun will be a well played second choice around 4-1 and Curlin will be in the 9-2 range.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Fri May 18, 2007 8:47 am ]
Post subject: 
Quick analysis now and picks later today:

1. Mint Slewlep -> Ran a well beaten 4th in the Withers. He's 2 for 7 lifetime and has not been close in any graded stake.

2. Xchanger -> Won the Tesio over the Pimlico course in impressive fashion easing up over the last part of the race and still winning by 5 lengths. Good time in that race. He tried the Arkansas route and ran into Curlin down there. Will be forwardly placed which can help in the Preakness.

3. Circular Quay -> Maybe had the worst trip of all in the Derby finding wall after wall of horses. He was able to make up some ground during the race but was a tired horse at the end. He's training well which says he came out of the race ok and might be in position to bounce forward off a 8 week layoff.

4. Curlin -> Ran a good third in the Derby where he was in trouble early and then had to go 5 wide on the final turn. His workouts since the Derby haven't been statistically impressive, but the trainer feels his horse came out of the race well and ready to move forward. The experience helps this horse as this will be his 5th race.

5. King of the Roxy -> This is the prototypical one move horse who ran a close second in the Santa Anita Derby after going 3 wide in a quick race. He was lightly raced in 2007 and this hurt his chances of going to the Derby. His workouts are ok coming into the race and should be well rested with the 6 weeks off.

6. Flying First Class -> This was supposed to be the best horse in Arkansas until a horse names Curlin came around. He ran two poor races in Arkansas so they sent this horse to the Derby Trial the week before the Derby and he won for fun. The horse wants to be on the lead but has never looked good going past one mile.

7. Hard Spun -> The Derby runner up got a great trip there, shaking loose on the lead and running hard all the way to the wire, losing to Street Sense. Since the Derby, they have been conservative with him but he moved forward with that race and if he can get to a position just off the lead and let the rabbits go away, he'll be competing for this one too.

8. Street Sense -> The Derby winner came of the race in great shape, working a nice easy 5 furlongs this week at Churchill Downs. He's been the model of consistency. Borel's ride in the Derby was one of the best I have seen in the history of the race.

9. CP West -> Ran a wide race after a quick pace in the Withers and ran second. Horse hasn't shown the ability of a 425K purchase as a yearling. May prove better in the future but appears to be a bit slower.
Author:  TheIntangibles [ Fri May 18, 2007 9:36 am ]
Post subject: 
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
8. Street Sense -> The Derby winner came of the race in great shape, working a nice easy 5 furlongs this week at Churchill Downs. He's been the model of consistency. Borel's ride in the Derby was one of the best I have seen in the history of the race.



http://youtube.com/watch?v=bPWufS_EkM4

Would love to see a triple crown. Street Sense is by far the strongest horse. But wouldn't every other jockey be trying to clog the rail after seeing that derby ? Street Sense will have to turn it on earlier. Should still be a great Preakness.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Fri May 18, 2007 9:57 am ]
Post subject: 
The only other great great ride I can remember:

1986 - Ferdinand

http://youtube.com/watch?v=wuMp9AjKqf0

Watch Shoe find room in the lane and duck to the inside in front of a wall of horses.
Author:  Woodridge Ryan [ Fri May 18, 2007 10:54 am ]
Post subject: 
So Vince, the winner this Saturday will be...
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Fri May 18, 2007 10:58 am ]
Post subject: 
Got pulled into something at work here - give me a bit Ryan :-)
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Fri May 18, 2007 11:44 am ]
Post subject: 
OK, here is my quick analysis.

Street Sense will be tough to beat. That being said, he can be beaten here.

I like Curlin. He comes off a difficult trip where he broke awkwardly, had to be steadied once early and then make a 5 wide bid coming home. There's less traffic to contend with this week and will be able to more easily get a stalking position that he wants. With the tighter turns at Pimlico he'll be able to get a trip behind the front runners and make his move when they want to. Hard Spun will also be pressed this week which may be the downfall. As for Street Sense, while traffic problems wont be an issue, I dont see him getting the golden trip again. He might have to take the wide trip this time from the 8 hole and the added distance with this type of trip may hurt him.

Circular Quay will be much better this week with a clean trip.

I'm going with a win/place bet on Curlin.

Curlin over King of the Roxy, Circular Quay, Street Sense and XChanger in the exactas and trifectas. Also boxing Circular Quay and Curlin in the exacta.
Author:  schmitty1121 [ Sat May 19, 2007 1:25 pm ]
Post subject: 
Question for you guys. I don't bet horses, but was thinking of betting Curlin to place. Do you know what the lines are for placing, or how to figure them out? Thanks
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Sat May 19, 2007 4:41 pm ]
Post subject: 
Payouts for Place and Show are based on total pool(X amount is paid back to the bettors of the winner and second place horse) so there is no good way to figure them out, but I would guess that if he was going to pay 8 to win, he would pay in the 4 dollar range for place.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Sun May 20, 2007 1:08 pm ]
Post subject: 
Yep - 3.80 was your place price but 8.80 was your win price ;-)
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