Tiz the Law reigns triumphant in the Classic, he's better than what we saw in the Derby. Just got a positive test for Covid (first positive thing all year) so we'll see if quarantine leads to better handicapping
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| Breeders Cup 2020 https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=123580 |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Breeders Cup 2020 |
Tiz the Law reigns triumphant in the Classic, he's better than what we saw in the Derby. Just got a positive test for Covid (first positive thing all year) so we'll see if quarantine leads to better handicapping
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| Author: | a retard [ Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Get well soon. Wife was exposed and tested today so I may be next. In any case I look forward to making several investments this weekend at our pop-up garage/patio OTB. |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
oh I'm fine, no symptoms...thanks though...hope your family is, too |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Saturday Race 12 Classic- I really think that the previous race in the Derby Tiz the Law had were more indicative of his talent and do believe he’s going to win. I’m not sure how Baffert is going to send his 3 horses all stuck outside and two of them looking for a front end trip (and the 7 is also a speed type). Baffert’s horses are logical, but I guess it depends on how much cheating he’ll get away with on the biggest stage. I think Authentic might actually be the best of the 3. Global Campaign’s last was his best in a while and could definitely snag a share underneath at a very tasty price 2-9-10-7 |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Friday Race 6 Juvenile Turf Sprint, only the 3rd such race in the BC history…both winners have gone wire-to-wire…Trainer Wesley Ward dominates these types of events at Keeneland, and he has 5 runners, but his 8/5 morning line favorite is stuck waaaay outside in post 14…his best chance might be his 8-Amanzi Yimpilo, a girl running with the boys. She beat them in Santa Anita last out…the 13-2nd of July has won twice, both at large odds, his trip in the Futurity was an impressive 2nd…My choice is the 10-Bodenhiemer who has the speed and has been training nicely on the course…big field, 5 1/2 furlongs equals chaos and perhaps a huge payout. 10/12-8-5-14-13-11 |
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| Author: | JORR [ Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: Saturday Race 12 Classic- I really think that the previous race in the Derby Tiz the Law had were more indicative of his talent and do believe he’s going to win. I’m not sure how Baffert is going to send his 3 horses all stuck outside and two of them looking for a front end trip (and the 7 is also a speed type). Baffert’s horses are logical, but I guess it depends on how much cheating he’ll get away with on the biggest stage. I think Authentic might actually be the best of the 3. Global Campaign’s last was his best in a while and could definitely snag a share underneath at a very tasty price 2-9-10-7 It would be justice if Tiz the Law wins. Square trainer and great horse. Here's the mental profile of the horse by Thomas Herding Technique heading into the Derby: This is our 10th year profiling horses for the Kentucky Derby, and after studying hundreds of three-year-olds, we have never seen a horse like Tiz the Law. Already a winner of the first leg of the 2020 Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes (G1), Tiz the Law enters the Derby at the top of his game -- an elite physical talent with a powerful, maximized psychology. Tiz the Law pairs a brilliant emotional energy, lightning fast sensory system and huge forward projection with elite efficiency, body control, speed and stamina. Those traits aren’t normally present all in one horse. He was awesome from day one. Debuting in a maiden race for New York-breds on August 8 at Saratoga, Tiz the Law exited the gate in a straight line, with great body control. In a pocket on the turn, he was under strong restraint from rider Junior Alvarado, but showing massive forward projection and good space awareness. When a horse is under a stranglehold, but stays forward mentally and does not lose position, that is an indication of a profound forward energy. Steered in the clear in the lane, Tiz the Law drew off to win by 4 lengths while under mild encouragement. His mind was clearing physical space way out in front of him, pulling his body forward. Tiz the Law proceeded to the Champagne Stakes (G1) in start #2, where he was paired with his Derby rider Manuel Franco. Tiz the Law stumbled slightly at the start – this is an intense horse who had minor hiccups at the start early in his career. Franco checked him and took him inside behind horses. Held up behind the leaders, Tiz the Law was almost jumping out of his shoes to assert himself. He eventually settled in traffic. The other horses were in his way physically, but he wasn’t concerned about them on the Herd Dynamic level. Big City Bob tried to keep him hemmed in, but Tiz moved him out of his way with his presence. He still had so much energy to unleash once in the clear. He won by 4 lengths, looking stress-free on the gallop-out. Tiz the Law’s only career loss occurred over a sloppy surface at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). He did a little shuffle at the start and got pinned along the rail behind the leaders. Being restrained behind horses was certainly not his favorite thing to do, but here he was again. It hurt his chances in this race, but it might have helped teach patience. Tiz the Law was blocked for most of the KJCS. He didn’t get free until almost the 1/8 pole, and he had no right to get free even then. He created that opening with his presence, moving South Bend out of his way and skillfully coming through the hole. Tiz the Law was trying very hard to influence the winner Silver Prospector’s motion, but he couldn’t do it from his compromised position in the amount of time he had to do it. He finished third, but it was a great effort. He was the best horse on Herd Dynamics by far, and he got a good education. Tiz the Law made his three-year-old debut in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park. He was ready for the start this time -- he looked like he had been shot out of a cannon when the gate opened! Tiz the Law immediately went to the lead, but Franco took a hold of him and let horses pass on the outside. Yet again Tiz the Law was pinned on the inside behind horses! Realizing the spot he was in, Franco wrestled TIz the Law back a couple lengths and steered him to the outside. It is almost unfair to be able to maneuver a horse in that manner and still have so much forward energy remaining. Tiz the Law blew by Ete Indian turning for home, took over his lane and then cocked his head, daring his opponent to run at him. He won by three lengths, ears scissoring then flopping as he crossed the wire. Tiz the Law finally got a clean trip in the Florida Derby (G1). Sitting third on the outside, stalking the leaders on the backstretch, he was moving purposefully. His sensory system was clearing space while his ears were flopping like a dishrag. There was absolutely no stress in his body. He loves competing, and it is getting easier for him. He blew through those horses, taking out poor Ete Indian, who drifted out four paths in his wake. Again Tiz the Law didn’t release him cleanly because he was still looking for a fight , but there was no challenge. Tiz the Law dominated the first leg of the 2020 Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes, which was run at 1 1/8 miles this year. He broke cleanly, sat three-wide in third place, just off the leaders, with a poised, determined look in his eye. With minimal encouragement, he powered home by 3 ¾ lengths. Tiz the Law continued this historic year in the Travers Stakes (G1). His efficiency at the starts has been improving, and here he broke fast and straight again. He quickly took up what is becoming his customary early herd positon – pressing or stalking the pace on the outside. Tiz the Law was putting immediate pressure on Shivaree, eyeing him from close range and intimidating him. He then moved up a slot on the backstretch and started chewing up the pacesetter Uncle Chuck. Tiz the Law was in complete charge of the herd by the time they reached the top of the far turn. With Uncle Chuck finished and no one else piercing his space, Tiz the Law gave one more look back for a challenge. Feeling none, he released from the field and drew off to win by 5 ½ lengths. He was eased at the wire. We have never seen a horse with Tiz the Law’s intensity level be so easy on his body. He looks so light on his feet. None of this looks hard on him. Tiz the Law enters the Kentucky Derby an extremely confident horse. We feel he has completed his Herd Dynamic growth curve. He has reached his maximum IHD power and GHD efficiency – something we rarely see when the Derby is held the first Saturday in May. How long can he perform at this level? The natural cycle dictates that colts only stay on top of the herd for so long. Tiz the Law has just recently reached his apex and he has shown no signs of mental or physical decline so far. We expect he can stay on top for a while. |
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| Author: | JORR [ Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:15 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Three horses I'm interested in based strictly on likely pace scenarios are Come Dancing, United, and Ollie's Candy. I think Come Dancing has a real shot in her race. With United it's more difficult to figure with all the Euros shipping in. I don't think Ollie's Candy is on the same level as Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver, but she looks to get a really good set-up and could hit the ticket at a huge number. |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
BTW, beautiful weather forecasted for both days Friday Race 7 Juvenile Turf…2 years olds going a mile on the turf, where many have never ridden that far, although the pedigree for the distance is evident virtually all of them…the 6-Mutasaabeg and 7-Fire at Will (who has shown versatility) have both won graded stakes races, and both are logical, as is the Irish horse 9-Battleground…but the horse I landed on is the 11-Gretzky the Great who has won 3 of his first four races of his young career and has done so on the lead as well as off it a bit…the 3-Arbata finished a strong 2nd to the 6 in the Bourbon G2 about 3 weeks ago on this course...look, this is a race that has been dominated by the Euro invaders, and I honestly don’t watch them and traditionally lied low for this one…there will be value everywhere, I’ll just tread cautiously…Note that the only ones to win here have been East Coasters or Euros 11-6-3/7-4-8-9 |
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| Author: | JORR [ Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: BTW, beautiful weather forecasted for both days Friday Race 7 Juvenile Turf…2 years olds going a mile on the turf, where many have never ridden that far, although the pedigree for the distance is evident virtually all of them…the 6-Mutasaabeg and 7-Fire at Will (who has shown versatility) have both won graded stakes races, and both are logical, as is the Irish horse 9-Battleground…but the horse I landed on is the 11-Gretzky the Great who has won 3 of his first four races of his young career and has done so on the lead as well as off it a bit…the 3-Arbata finished a strong 2nd to the 6 in the Bourbon G2 about 3 weeks ago on this course...look, this is a race that has been dominated by the Euro invaders, and I honestly don’t watch them and traditionally lied low for this one…there will be value everywhere, I’ll just tread cautiously…Note that the only ones to win here have been East Coasters or Euros 11-6-3/7-4-8-9 Mutasaabeg impressed the hell out of me in the Bourbon but I don't think this race shapes up too great for him. That last race by Sealiway was something. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_nD79_cX-A |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
he was impressive last, but he'll have to go farther than any race this year, and he's on his 6th one in 2020 this year (more than any else here)...he certainly is capable and could control things from the rail...this is quite tough |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
I'll eyeball this it least it's not at Santa Anita |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Friday Race 8 Juvenile Fillies…the smallest field of BC 2020 features 7-Princess Noor who is 9/5 on the m/l and is going to get hammered at the window…I think the best value will lie with the 1-Simply Ravishing who has raced 3 time in her career this year, won on turf, at this distance and here at Keeneland…5/2 would more than be fair 1-7-3 |
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| Author: | JORR [ Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:31 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: Friday Race 8 Juvenile Fillies…the smallest field of BC 2020 features 7-Princess Noor who is 9/5 on the m/l and is going to get hammered at the window…I think the best value will lie with the 1-Simply Ravishing who has raced 3 time in her career this year, won on turf, at this distance and here at Keeneland…5/2 would more than be fair 1-7-3 I am against Princess Noor. She looks real sporty beating four horse fields in California. Definitely not for me in this spot. |
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| Author: | JORR [ Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:31 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: I'll eyeball this it least it's not at Santa Anita How is your wife doing, Walt? |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Walt Williams Neck wrote: I'll eyeball this it least it's not at Santa Anita How is your wife doing, Walt? been moved to isolation and rehab in another facility...thanks for asking man |
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| Author: | W_Z [ Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
hope she feels better, walt. i don't know about TTL, against 3 baffert horses. one of them has to win, i think...sadly. |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Walt, sending good vibes your way, and take care of yourself as well. |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Friday Race 9 Juvenile Fillies Turf…simply a wide open affair with the big trainers getting stuck outside…the 4-Plum Ali gets a plum spot, as well as the horse next to her the 5-Aunt Pearl…both are G2 winners and have tremendous jocks (Aunt Pearl getting hammered in the overseas windows currently)…the 10-Campenelle is ridden by one of the greatest turf jocks in literally all the world, and has never lost in 3 tries, and he has been training on this course for the last 2 months…12-Miss Amulet is a well priced Euro that could land…11-Royal Approval one of those horses that slips through the cracks, a Ward/Ortiz combo that has good speed, watch out...as well as the 3-Alda who might be best at this distance 10/5-4-11/9-3 |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Friday Race 10 Juvenile…this is where your early Kentucky Derby favorites are formed…this might be my best choice of the day… a large field…a heavy, heavy favorite the 7-Jackie's Warrior who, in my opinion, could be headed towards a bounce (that is, a recession from one’s last very good effort)…the 9-Sittin on Go is a horse that won his only two races this year (his 2YO career) and then sat out of other potential money grabbing races in order to train for this, methodically..his daddy, Brody’s Cause, is a very profitable sire here at Keeneland…this one wins at a huge price…the 5-Essential Quality well bred, has already won here 9-5/7-3 |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Happy Day one let's all make some $$$$$$$$$$ The 1st today Quick Tempo speed of the speed.....throw out his 2nd race on the grass The 2nd Farsighted loved her Maiden win over this track 3rd Taishan had trouble in last I'll take 12-1 all day |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:34 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
In the classic, Tiz The Law has the edge in speed according to the simulation as a 2-1 horse, but Maximum Security has a monster stakes-adjusted winning percentage, even against these top horses. He would be a 1-1. I think it's taken some time for Maximum Security to get used to Baffert and vice versa. Maximum Security looked primed in his workout on Halloween. I'll go with the WTW horse---Maximum Security, who's in better form today than he was in the Awesome Again Stakes. He may run away with it, with neither Tiz the Law nor Improbable having comparable E1 and E2 stats. Maximum Security has been beaten only twice in thirteen starts. Exacta box with Maximum Security and Improbable. |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Good luck to all, this is when it is nice to have 2 TV's hooked up. Football on one and the races on the other. |
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| Author: | W_Z [ Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:07 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: OscarTangoEcho wrote: BTW, beautiful weather forecasted for both days Friday Race 7 Juvenile Turf…2 years olds going a mile on the turf, where many have never ridden that far, although the pedigree for the distance is evident virtually all of them…the 6-Mutasaabeg and 7-Fire at Will (who has shown versatility) have both won graded stakes races, and both are logical, as is the Irish horse 9-Battleground…but the horse I landed on is the 11-Gretzky the Great who has won 3 of his first four races of his young career and has done so on the lead as well as off it a bit…the 3-Arbata finished a strong 2nd to the 6 in the Bourbon G2 about 3 weeks ago on this course...look, this is a race that has been dominated by the Euro invaders, and I honestly don’t watch them and traditionally lied low for this one…there will be value everywhere, I’ll just tread cautiously…Note that the only ones to win here have been East Coasters or Euros 11-6-3/7-4-8-9 Mutasaabeg impressed the hell out of me in the Bourbon but I don't think this race shapes up too great for him. That last race by Sealiway was something. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_nD79_cX-A i might be playing the 2 there, as well. |
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| Author: | JORR [ Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:12 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Let's get this party started right with Sir Wellington. |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:19 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Let's get this party started right with Sir Wellington. Sounds good to me, Good Luck!!! |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:28 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Let's make some f*cking money here, gents. |
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| Author: | JORR [ Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:37 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: Let's make some f*cking money here, gents. Yes, sir! Looks like the track is pretty fast. Sub 22 1/4, sub 45 1/2 and the front didn't really quit. |
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| Author: | JORR [ Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
I'm taking another big longshot swing here with Taylor's Tourist. |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Got an Exacta in the 1st, good start. |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders Cup 2020 |
Nice, Hawg! I'm using the 14-California Lily in an exacta box with some big prices (3, 6, 8, 9, and 13) for $10 |
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