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U.S. Open at Oakmont
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=12363		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Wed Jun 06, 2007 8:17 pm ]
Post subject:  U.S. Open at Oakmont
The Open makes its once-a-decade return to Oakmont, where Ernie Els won in 94, Larry Nelson in 83 and Johnny Miller shot that incredible 63 on Sunday in 1973. I absolutely love Oakmont as the hardest classic course I've played. It's a tougher version of Medinah. Long par 4s and expected thick, deep rough with narrow fairways. But the fun on the greens was (for me, anyway) the most special part of Oakmont. I remember the huge freaking greens with what might be old circus elephants or Pittsburgh mobsters buried under the greens. I remember having 10 foot downhill putts with 10 foot breaks and misses that roll off the green and back down the fairway. And I remember seeing putts going by the hole a few feet and rolling 25 feet long. And that was with a Stimp nowhere near 12. And let's not forget Oakmont's trademark church pews on 3&4 and the hundreds of other bunkers around the course. They'll make this course as hard as they can with pin positions and rough so that even par wins it.

Early odds:

101 T. Woods +275
102 P. Mickelson +900
103 V. Singh +1600
104 J. Furyk +2000
105 E. Els +2000
106 L. Donald +3000
107 P. Harrington +3000
108 G. Ogilvy +3000
109 A. Scott +3000
110 R. Goosen +3000
111 S. Garcia +3000
112 Z. Johnson +4000
113 H. Stenson +4000
114 J. Rose +5000
115 S. O'Hair +6000
116 S. Cink +6000
117 T. Immelman +6000
118 R. Sabbatini +6000
119 P. Casey +6000
120 R. Allenby +7000
121 KJ. Choi +7000
122 A. Oberholser +10000
123 S. Stricker +8000
124 L. Westwood +10000
125 S. Appleby +10000
126 C. Montgomerie +10000
127 D. Toms +8000
128 M. Weir +10000
129 D. Love III +12500
130 V. Taylor +12500
131 I. Poulter +12500
132 J. Kelly +12500
133 R. Pampling +10000
135 S. Verplank +10000
136 S. Ames +10000
137 C. Howell +10000
138 A. Kim +12500
139 C. DiMarco +12500
140 L. Glover +12500
141 M. Calcavecchia +15000
142 T. Clark +12500
143 D. Howell +15000
144 Bart Bryant +12500
145 A. Baddeley +10000
146 N. O'Hern +12500
147 N. Green +12500
148 R. Imada +12500
149 J. Rollins +15000
150 A. Cabrera +15000
151 JM. Olazabal +15000
152 JJ. Henry +15000
153 B. Wetterich +15000
154 T. Bjorn +15000
156 M. Campbell +17500
157 K. Duke +17500
159 C. Villegas +17500
160 C. Pettersson +17500
161 B. Weekley +15000
163 R. Karlsson +17500
165 R. Moore +15000
166 B. Watson +15000
167 C. Campbell +15000
Author:  Mr. Reason [ Wed Jun 06, 2007 8:21 pm ]
Post subject: 
This is one of my favorite US Open courses too, Coast. I am looking forward to this one.
Explain the odds for a gambling dimwit please. What does the +275 for Tiger mean?

And you've played it, you lucky bastage.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Wed Jun 06, 2007 8:24 pm ]
Post subject: 
+275 = 2.75 to 1 odds
Risk $100 to win $275 (plus your $100 back)


If it were -275, it would be 1 to 2.75 odds
Risk $275 to win $100
Author:  Brick [ Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:47 pm ]
Post subject: 
Coast,
This might not be a good place to ask, but I don't think it deserves a new thread. What is the easiest sport to be successful gambling on? I know there are lots of pro horse race guys but I'm talking pro sports. I would guess that picking golf would be one of the worst with the amount of possible winners.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:18 pm ]
Post subject: 
Rick, Many of the pro gamblers swear by baseball. Some guys are very successful handicapping pitchers and playing specific matchups. I understand this, but simply don't have the time to work a card every single day for six months. My favorite sport is college basketball, but that may be because I have an affinity for the game. Some pros will make strong cases for the NBA, but it's a smaller number and the handicapping is entirely different. In baseball and college hoops, handicapping the matchups is critical. The guys who successfully handicap the NBA do it with trends.

The hardest is football. It has the largest, most active betting market with the most information and coverage, and one week between games to create the sharpest lines of any sport. Because of this, the best fundamental pickers rarely hit over 60% in a season. In fact, because of the robust market, some effective football guys handicap the market (as a technical stock analyst), not the games.

For most pros, the NFL is much tougher than college foots. In college, you have 50 college games a week on the board and greater disparity among the teams vs. 16 NFL games whose outcomes can be unpredictable on any given Sunday.

Golf is more of a fun bet for me than a profit-making opportunity. I play much less on golf than I do on college basketball. Golf, auto racing, horse racing, etc. == bets on individuals with multiple odds is IMO for entertainment, not profit. Sure, some guys like Hawkeye and Vince know the sport and can make $$ playing the horses, but they are the exception and they are leaving a much higher % with the house than do bettors on the team sports.

If you know and follow a particular sport more than any other, and can be truly objective, then that sport could be your best. My wife and daughters follow women's tennis and the Tennis Channel is on in my house every day. I'm not a tennis guy per se, but I have profited by their knowledge. There is a guy I know who follows soccer and he's uncanny at identifying certain matchups.

I don't play much baseball or NBA, but based on reputation from experts and my own sense, I'd rank profitable opportunities of the major sports to be:
1. Baseball
2. College Basketball
3. NBA
4. College Football
5. NFL
6. Golf/Auto Racing/Horses/other
Author:  Brick [ Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:30 pm ]
Post subject: 
Thanks for the response. I've thought about gambling and by far the sports I watch the most are college football, then college basketball so that would be where I should start.

To pick your brain some more, how do you handle teams you actively root for? Do you avoid them or do you bet them only if you think they will lose?
Author:  Mustang Rob [ Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:58 pm ]
Post subject: 
Quote:
My favorite sport is college basketball, but that may be because I have an affinity for the game.


Coast,
Do you keep a binder for all NCAA hoops teams and set your own line for each game?
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Thu Jun 07, 2007 8:23 am ]
Post subject: 
Rick, I bet on or against teams I like as I've learned to be dispassionate about them. But to be honest with you, I'm not a hard core fan of any team. I know guys who are real fans of certain teams love but are able to use that knowledge they have in the right way. Many people, however, bet with their heart and not their head and that's a losing approach. If you know you can't be objective (or if you have a horrible record betting your teams), just cross their games off your list.

Yes, Rob, I keep power ratings for college hoops, NFL and college football teams and can make my own lines. Line value is critical in the NFL, but so are trends and market factors. Matchups and situations are more important to me in the college games than line value, but line value is not unimportant.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Wed Jun 20, 2007 10:27 pm ]
Post subject: 
Cabrera was 150-1 in the pre-Open betting. $100 would have gotten you $15k.
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