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2021 Kentucky Derby
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=125218		 Page 1 of 3
Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:24 am ]
Post subject:  2021 Kentucky Derby
Wondering who are your top 10 horses going into the KD, not knowing post position, health, etc...mine are (in no particular order)

Essential Quality (Cox)
Known Agenda (Pletcher)
Highly Motivated (Brown)
Medina Spirit (Baffert)
Rock Your World (Sadler)
Hot Rod Charlie (O'Niel)
Midnight Bourbon (Asmussen)
Super Stock (Asmussen)
Soup and Sandwich (Casse)
O Bezos (Foley)
Author:  Rod [ Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
I haven't really thought about going ten deep, but my top contenders right now are:

Highly Motivated
Like the King
Mandaloun
Known Agenda
Rock Your World
Hot Rod Charlie

Obviously, Essential Quality is a contender but I am against him in this spot. To me, the whole race comes down to who is moving the best toward the front when Caddo River drops anchor.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
Hot Rod Charlie will be tough to beat on the pace with a good post draw.
Author:  Rod [ Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
Caddo River out. Who will have the lead now?
Author:  Rod [ Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
This horse isn't going to be in the Derby, but he might have had the most impressive debut of any horse I have ever seen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRDOE9ahJbI

The only thing I could compare it to would be a horse named Meadowlake that broke his maiden at Hawthorne about 35 years ago. I'm sure Walt remembers.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Tue Apr 27, 2021 12:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
This horse isn't going to be in the Derby, but he might have had the most impressive debut of any horse I have ever seen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRDOE9ahJbI

The only thing I could compare it to would be a horse named Meadowlake that broke his maiden at Hawthorne about 35 years ago. I'm sure Walt remembers.


Sure do ...looks like a beast
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Tue Apr 27, 2021 12:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
Rock your World no second guessing done Rosario helped me decision ....good luck. Might need a pacemaker tomorrow who knows if I'll even see it
Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
Get well Walt. And remember, pacemakers make the race.

Seriously, good luck with everything.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Get well Walt. And remember, pacemakers make the race.

Seriously, good luck with everything.


thanks
Author:  Rod [ Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
Highly Motivated looks very strong in this spot. Based on my numbers he's simply the fastest horse. I know some people don't like that he got caught by Essential Quality in the Bluegrass, but I would argue that he outraced him and it was his first time around two turns and he raced against his style. I don't think he's a front end horse. He certainly won't have the lead in the Derby- until he takes it around the eighth pole. I have no concerns about the distance.

He plots extremely well- large square in Quadrant 1:

Image

Here is where recent Derby winners have plotted:

Image

Even though he didn't win either race, he showed a lot in the Gotham and the Bluegrass.

In the Gotham he almost got shoved completely off the course by the 4 horse. He still gathered himself and was moving best of all at the end:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egrHvmnuOco

In the Bluegrass he was absolutely valiant in defeat. As I said, he raced against his preferred style and nearly held off the undefeated favorite. He attempted to intimidate Essential Quality in the stretch, but Essential Quality is no slouch himself. Highly Motivated is still a little green as he flipped leads late in this race:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KPA4zPyQKc

I have no doubt Brown will have him cranked for his top performance on Saturday.
Author:  Rod [ Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
Plus, only three horses ran 37 or better final 3f in their buck and an eighth prep:

Highly Motivated
Essential Quality
Known Agenda

And if you're a pedigree guy, Highly Motivated shows Buckpasser in the right spot.

A lot to like about this horse.
Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
PACE-Initially I thought with the defection of Caddo River that there would be little or no pace, and with 20 runners that would get chaotic, and more important, unpredictable. But starting to think the absence of any real front-end types will force some riders to go for it and extend their horses early to get an advantage. This is especially true, I believe, for horses on the outside like Rock your World, Soup&Sandwich and Highly Motivated (who I agree with you JORR, looks like a solid pick). I think Midnight Bourbon and Medina Spirit were going to be in front anyways, and the balance of speed between the 5 will have a bigger impact than I initially thought. I’ve found it to be a difficult year to handicap this thing, but that’s me.

LONGSHOTS-On my Superfecta ticket I ‘m making space for several, including Super Stock, Soup and Sandwich, Dynamic One (tremendous pedigree and runs hard late) and Sainthood, who was game in his last outing despite a horrible trip.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
The three speed horses in the race are Medina Spirit, Hot Rod Charlie and Rock Your World. Given how the race has gone to the horses on the lead, I like Rock Your World in this spot. On the other hand, Essential Quality and Known Agenda are more suited for the 1 1/4 mi. distance.

My three are Rock Your World, Essential Quality and Known Agenda.

Super Stock is my long-shot. Good luck all.
Author:  Rod [ Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
I'm almost certain Midnight Bourbon will be on the lead or at least pushing the pace.
Author:  Hawg Ass [ Sat May 01, 2021 9:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
Good luck to all today, may you cash many tickets!!
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat May 01, 2021 3:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
10th Race Hog Creek Hustle for Courses and Jocks too :thumright:
Author:  Hawg Ass [ Sat May 01, 2021 3:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
I am getting killed in the photo finishes, fuck.
Author:  blackhawksfan [ Sat May 01, 2021 4:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
I put 20 dollars on Soup and Sandwich for the name alone. Good luck.
Author:  denisdman [ Sat May 01, 2021 4:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
I make one online Twin Spires bet a year, and this is the race. Went with Highly Motivated.....
Author:  denisdman [ Sat May 01, 2021 4:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
That dude at the window had a massive brick of C notes......
Author:  blackhawksfan [ Sat May 01, 2021 5:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
Some old dude on NBC just carried 100k in cash up to the betting window. LOL
Author:  Regular Reader [ Sat May 01, 2021 5:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Rock your World no second guessing done Rosario helped me decision ....good luck. Might need a pacemaker tomorrow who knows if I'll even see it

I hope the day is going well Walt
Author:  blackhawksfan [ Sat May 01, 2021 6:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
No one called it. Not one of you!
Author:  denisdman [ Sat May 01, 2021 6:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
At least one Bob is happy....
Author:  blackhawksfan [ Sat May 01, 2021 6:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
That guy and Tony Larussa are the only two guys who have the same hairstyle they did 40 years ago.
Author:  Regular Reader [ Sat May 01, 2021 6:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
Poor JORR! :lol:
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat May 01, 2021 6:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
Regular Reader wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Rock your World no second guessing done Rosario helped me decision ....good luck. Might need a pacemaker tomorrow who knows if I'll even see it

I hope the day is going well Walt

Image
Just ducky
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat May 01, 2021 6:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
Author:  FrankDrebin [ Sat May 01, 2021 6:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63ZIf2H9S0E
Author:  Rod [ Sun May 02, 2021 7:56 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2021 Kentucky Derby
It's a dead game. They let this guy ruin the Derby.
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