Who do you like out there?

Lukas getting very ambitious and putting Ethereal Road on the Derby trail.

viewtopic.php?f=129&t=127499#p3778812

I think he has a tough spot here but maybe he will race closer to the pace on Saturday.

Baffert is always hard to beat in this race but I'll probably be taking another crack against Newgrange. I don't like anything about that skinny-necked motherfucker. He looks like he hasn't been fed in a month. Of course, Baffert is gonna have him on the heavy cola so he'll probably run away again. Not using Newgrange cost me giant horizontals on Southwest weekend as I had singled Ethereal Road in the last leg, but I'm a hardhead like that.

Ben Diesel is a very good horse. He has had some tough trips and still has knocked on the door. I think he has a good chance in this spot. Not crazy about old ass Jon Court in the saddle but he's capable at Oaklawn. I'm not a big jockey guy anyway. And with Court riding you're gonna get paid a lot more than you would with an Ortiz brother.

The horse I really find interesting and who will be a HUGE price is Cairama. That was a really sneaky race in the Smarty Jones and had all the earmarks of a prep. He was definitely not pushed in that race and had some trouble as well. If I get really bold, he may be a single on my tickets.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Been a few years this has happened, but assume that Baffert will list his assistant trainer at Churchill?

His horses aren't accruing Derby points though.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Race 6 7-Skyscanner will get set up from a hot pace and close best of all…Exacta Box with the 3-Secretary at War and 10 Awesome Saturday

Race 9 2-Santos Dumont…Chris Hartman is ridiculously hot in routes right now, great post draw, huge price

Race 10 watch out for local trainer DiVito who can get his horses to pop on debut…he’ll send out the 11-Plausably Denile at 5-1

Rebel…Sensing robust early fractions and that the 9-Barber Road will close on the over bet speed in front

And my girl Fate Factor runs a Stakes race at Turfway (The Wintergreen Race 5) and is getting 12-1…She’ll crush that

Good luck I'll be working, but also trying to kick Edzo's ass on the Xpressbet Tournament

Which I will

I was really busy the last two days and just getting around to looking at the Rebel this morning.

Not an easy race to handicap at all. Newgrange is the deserved M/L favorite at 9/5. He looks like your typical classic horse, in that he can do everything and is the only horse in the race that shows strength along E1, E2 and LP. While Kavod should be the pace setter, I'm seeing Newgrange and Chasing Time stalking just off the pace. Asmussen trained, Chasing Time, won his last time out in an $80K OC at Oaklawn, going wire-to-wire. The opening fractions were a little bit on the slow side, but the horse didn't need to do more on the lead (I looked at the tape). Then he put it into overdrive down the stretch and appeared very game. If you compare Chasing Time to Barber Road down the stretch in their last races, they were going in opposite directions with Chasing Time accelerating while Barber Road was weakening. So for me, Barber Road is a toss, even though he placed 2nd in the Southwest behind Newgrange. Then we have Ethereal Road, who is a Secretariat type of horse---slow in the early going but with dominant late speed that he could run down the whole field. In fact, I have him projected with a 47% winning probability in LP, indicating statistical dominance in that metric.

It's hard for me to choose a clear leader, but going by the math it is Newgrange. Then it's a toss up between Chasing Time and Ethereal Road, with Barber Road and Kavod vying for fourth. I'll probably just go ex. box Newgrange, Chasing Time and Ethereal Road. If there's a horse or two that could surprise, it's Chasing Time at 8-1 and Ethereal Road at 12-1 on the M/L. Definitely a good race for the handicappers with those long prices.

There's another reason to like Chasing Time. Purchased for $250K, he and Epicenter are both sons of Not This Time. Epicenter, of course, won the Risen Star last Saturday. Asmussen said the following about Chasing Time a few days ago: “He’s got a lot of talent. Very youthful. Little bit distracted, still a touch on the playful side. He continues to impress in his training. Until his last race, he’d hang on a lead, didn’t necessarily run straight.” In his three works since, Chasing Time has “trained very impressively.”

LOL so who had the 4 in the Saudi Cup? Oof.

I'm happy for Wiggy. Old time Arlington guy.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Man, I was set up really good in that mandatory at Gulfstream. I caught it one time, but it would have been a bonanza if the 12 had won.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I think trying to keep Barber Road closer is a mistake.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

What happened to Newgrange? Terrible he couldn't even hit the board at 3-5 at one point.

Had he won, I had the tri-fecta with Ethereal Road and Barber Road.

Chasing Time also disappointing. They bid him down to 4-1 from 8-1 on the M/L, seeing the same things I saw. But nope.

To add insult to injury, the miracle horse wins out of nowhere. That's horse racing and no crying in baseball.

I really thought the Withers was a soft race. I still do, but the fact that Un Ojo won the Rebel has to upgrade that Chad horse that won the Withers a little. Maybe this is just a weak generation. I'd say the two best so far are Mo Donegal and Zandon.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Not White Abarrio, the presumptive Florida Derby favorite?

I like Ethereal Rd. He really stepped up in the Rebel (going from an $84K maiden race to placing in a $1 mil. G2), this time running just off the pace and nearly getting the upset at 14-1. Had Un Ojo not had the super trip, Ethereal Rd. wins the Rebel.

Lukas said today he's going to run Ethereal Rd. next in the Arkansas Derby at the beginning of April. He's gotta be happy about how his horse ran yesterday.

Mo Donegal will kick White Abarrio's teeth in next time they meet. I don't think White Abarrio will be favored either.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I have a feeling that Barber Rd. was the strongest horse to come out of the Rebel for the Derby, not Ethereal Rd.

The finish time in the Rebel was on the slow side, but the wet track conditions may have been a factor. Looks like Barber Rd. can run all day.

Possibly. But I think that race was weak. I think there's a good chance the winner of the Arkansas Derby wasn't in the race.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don