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 Post subject: Fountain of Youth/Gotham
PostPosted: Fri Mar 04, 2022 6:32 am 
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I'm still looking at the Gotham, but the Fountain of Youth looks to be a competitive race between Simplification, Rattle N Roll and Emmanuel. Not a lot of pace in this race, which should benefit Emmanuel and Rattle N Roll, with the latter probably having the best tactical speed in the race. If Simplification can get out of the gate unhindered and take the lead, he should be tough to beat, but I think Rattle N Roll with his late speed will prevail. Emmanuel comes in untested after getting an easy win at Tampa in a $75K OC in his last. He's in deeper waters here in the FOY. As another son of Not This Time, Howling Time has a chance to hit the board if he can regain his form after a disappointing 5th in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill in late Nov. On the other hand, Dale Romans' horses have a way of being self-destructive and it will be interesting to see whether Howling Time or Giant Game will show up in this race. I'd go exa. box Simplification and Rattle and Roll. There's a few horses that could come in third, like Emmanuel, Howling Time, Dean Delivers and Giant Game.


Last edited by Dignified Rube on Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:53 am, edited 4 times in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:45 am 
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Emmanuel looks like he could be the real deal, though I don't really think he's a horse for the classic distance, i.e. Derby. But he may have fallen into a good spot here. I also suspect he may need the lead and he'll probably have it unless they decide to go with Simplification this time. Ultimately, I think the horse is a miler but he should definitely be live here.

In Due Time has every reason to step forward once again and Paco should be able to work out a good trip.

I'm not sure what to think about Howling Time, but I am fairly certain this horse is highly regarded in the Romans barn. He scratched out of the Sam F. Davis to go here. And here's a little something- Talamo was willing to go to Tampa and now Gulfstream to ride him and that's something he didn't do for Giant Game in the Holy Bull. Those works certainly suggest he's on "GO."

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:28 am 
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I’m seeing lots of speed especially from the outside (including the 12-Galt who will draw in, get Rosario to ride and be a lot cheaper than ml of 12/1) That first turn hits pretty quickly and there will be a mad scramble to avoid ending up to far outside in the clubhouse turn.

1-Markhamian will have more than enough speed to get clear, and the rail has a stunning 28% winning percentage, albeit a small sample size, but this is a tough horse…2-Simplification had a bad start in his last (Holy Bull) had to come from well off the pace…I think that serves him well today with all this speed to finish a strong 2nd…3-Howling Time has fired 3 bullets for this (as JORR mentioned) but just not a fan of Romans in Graded Stakes…4-In Due Time no doubt can get the distance, gets a nice post…6-Rattle and Roll hasn’t raced for 4 months and isn’t training nearly as hard as some others here…8-Emmanuel solid, classy, and I personally think distance won’t be the issue for this horse going forward (I disagree with JORR here), Saez aboard…just so much to like…except, he’ll be outside and a part of the jumble up front…Saez should give him a good ride, but he'll need an exceptional one…might be best at two turns of this group with Mo Donegal sidelined

2-1-4-8


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 04, 2022 12:13 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
6-Rattle and Roll hasn’t raced for 4 months and isn’t training nearly as hard as some others here…


He went 0:58 over 5f at GP on Feb. 26.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 04, 2022 12:57 pm 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
6-Rattle and Roll hasn’t raced for 4 months and isn’t training nearly as hard as some others here…


He went 0:58 over 5f at GP on Feb. 26.


Absolutely correct sir, and I mis-communicated. It's not as though he's not a logical choice, and his workouts have been fine. It's just that this particular race's morning tabs has more bullets than Sonny's car in the toll both scene of the Godfather...I just prefer others with more recent races


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:22 pm 
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Race 11 on the Gulfstream card...the 1-Abaan should command all the attention...but I like to closers here, his stablemate 10-Shamrocket and the 7-Fantasioso closing down on the 8-Temple

7-10-8-3


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 04, 2022 3:54 pm 
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Race 10 Gulfstream on the Fountain of Youth day

Send all the speed you want at my favorite here the 3-Speakers Corner who kicked ass at incredibly hot fractions, winning wire-to-wire against stout G3 company on this course...watch this, it won't take long


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxO2CJ3-_CI

(get it? 'cause he's so fast, won't take long)


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:12 pm 
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One last one tonight...for tomorrow

Race 9 7-Alms over all, and exacta box with 3-Jouster and 5-Bipartasship


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 6:59 am 
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I don't see the Gotham being nearly as competitive as the FOY. To me, #4 Fromanothamutha is the Real Deal Holyfield and a legit Derby contender. I expect the horse to blow the doors off the field today. He''ll be chasing #5 Dean's List, who will undoubtedly be the pace, but Fromanothamutha will be too strong down the stretch. Some of these horses just need time to mature into their form, and I think that is true of Fromanothamutha, who was a $120K purchase as a son of Unified. The distance shouldn't be a problem, considering Unified won the Peter Pan at 1 1/8 mi. Third and Fourth should go Rockefeller and Morello. I like the superfecta box with these horses. The rest of the field is pretty green.

If I could get Fromanothamutha on the futures today for the Derby, I would take him. The horse is being gifted at 6-1 on the M/L, projecting around 40% win prob. in final speed, albeit with some risk.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 8:14 am 
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I think Rich Strike has a chance in the Battaglia at a big number. That race has a fucked up morning line. Erase should probably be the favorite and they've got him at 5/1. If he's close to that, you have to bet. Tiz the Bomb now desperately looking for Derby points. Put that motherfucker back on the grass, for God's sake!

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 4:25 pm 
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NY Traffic to win in the Park Mile Stakes.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 5:10 pm 
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Just hit the trifecta in the 5th at S.A.

$0.50 --- 5,10,1

:cheers:


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 9:51 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
One last one tonight...for tomorrow

Race 9 7-Alms over all, and exacta box with 3-Jouster and 5-Bipartasship

NOPE

OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Race 10 Gulfstream on the Fountain of Youth day

Send all the speed you want at my favorite here the 3-Speakers Corner who kicked ass at incredibly hot fractions, winning wire-to-wire against stout G3 company on this course...watch this, it won't take long

)

YEP

OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Race 11 on the Gulfstream card...the 1-Abaan should command all the attention...but I like to closers here, his stablemate 10-Shamrocket and the 7-Fantasioso closing down on the 8-Temple

7-10-8-3


Juuust missed this one

OscarTangoEcho wrote:
I’m seeing lots of speed especially from the outside (including the 12-Galt who will draw in, get Rosario to ride and be a lot cheaper than ml of 12/1) That first turn hits pretty quickly and there will be a mad scramble to avoid ending up to far outside in the clubhouse turn.

1-Markhamian will have more than enough speed to get clear, and the rail has a stunning 28% winning percentage, albeit a small sample size, but this is a tough horse…2-Simplification had a bad start in his last (Holy Bull) had to come from well off the pace…I think that serves him well today with all this speed to finish a strong 2nd…3-Howling Time has fired 3 bullets for this (as JORR mentioned) but just not a fan of Romans in Graded Stakes…4-In Due Time no doubt can get the distance, gets a nice post…6-Rattle and Roll hasn’t raced for 4 months and isn’t training nearly as hard as some others here…8-Emmanuel solid, classy, and I personally think distance won’t be the issue for this horse going forward (I disagree with JORR here), Saez aboard…just so much to like…except, he’ll be outside and a part of the jumble up front…Saez should give him a good ride, but he'll need an exceptional one…might be best at two turns of this group with Mo Donegal sidelined

2-1-4-8


Thought I nailed this pretty well


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