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Belmont Stakes
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=128158
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Author:  Rod [ Tue Jun 07, 2022 12:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Belmont Stakes

1. We the People (2-1)
Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset
Jockey: Flavien Prat

2. Skippylongstocking (20-1)
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Junior Alvarado

3. Nest (8-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

4. Rich Strike (7-2)
Trainer: Eric Reed
Jockey: Sonny Leon

5. Creative Minister (6-1)
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

6. Mo Donegal (7-2)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Oritz Jr.

7. Golden Glider (20-1)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Dylan Davis

8. Barber Road (10-1)
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Author:  Rod [ Tue Jun 07, 2022 1:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

Mo Donegal will run by We The People like he's tied to the hubrail.

Author:  W_Z [ Tue Jun 07, 2022 1:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

At 8-5 probably :(

Author:  Spaulding [ Tue Jun 07, 2022 1:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

Why do you like Mo Donegal so much?

Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

W_Z wrote:
At 8-5 probably :(


This. Is the underacard any good, caused that ain't gonna get it done

Author:  Rod [ Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

Spaulding wrote:
Why do you like Mo Donegal so much?



Just the way he moves. He looks like he was born to run a mile and a half. The Belmont is a specialty race. Most of these horses will never run this far again. He's been working at Belmont since the Derby just waiting for Saturday. Pletcher is a high percentage trainer with horses off 35 days or more. And the race is in his backyard. This is a true home court advantage. It's a short field. He won't be too far back. And Irad will be able to move him whenever he wants.

@W_Z and OTE: He'll probably be about 5/2, but I think 8/5 would still be okay here. I've got him at even money on my 100 point line. I think if they ran this race 100 times he'd win 50, and maybe even more.

Author:  W_Z [ Tue Jun 07, 2022 4:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

That would be fine by me. But these 5-horse stakes races rounding out the day are bothering me too.

Author:  Rod [ Wed Jun 08, 2022 7:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

In the next few days you'll hear a lot about pedigree and which horses are "bred to go a mile and a half." I'm not a pedigree guy, especially at this point in the careers of these horses when I've seen them all race multiple times. I prefer to look at the phenotype, i.e. the visible horse rather than the genotype, i.e. the horse's genetic makeup.

If I were designing an animal to go a mile and a half, he would look exactly like Mo Donegal. But I'm looking forward to Ken Rudulph and Matt Carothers discussing the alleged distance limitations of his sire, Uncle Mo, who is not in the race.

Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

Since 2000 7 horses that skipped the Prekness won the Belmont

Author:  a retard [ Wed Jun 08, 2022 1:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Since 2000 7 horses that skipped the Prekness won the Belmont


Meaning the other 16 were won by horses that ran the Preakness? What am I supposed to make of this stat?

Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Wed Jun 08, 2022 2:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

OscarTangoEcho wrote:
W_Z wrote:
At 8-5 probably :(


This. Is the underacard any good, caused that ain't gonna get it done


Quality :thumleft: Quantity :roll:

Author:  Dignified Rube [ Thu Jun 09, 2022 9:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

You're getting a m/l discount on Nest at 8-1. He's a true 4-1.

Creative Minister looks interesting at 6-1 as an underlay. He will be on the lead and also has the distance pedigree with both grandfathers in Giant's Causeway and Tapit. He's going to be in a position to steal the race, if he can last.

Not only does JORR, Brisnet rates Mo Donegal the best with the highest PPR. 5-2 seems rich, though.

Statistically, Rich Strike is not projecting anything special. His speed rates as a 8-1 but his win percentage by money is 2-1 with the win in the Kentucky Derby.

Author:  Dignified Rube [ Thu Jun 09, 2022 10:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

I definitely like Creative Minister in this race with that Preakness finish.

Mo Donegal and Barber Rd. finished 5 and 6 in the Kentucky Derby. Mo Donegal was only one length better.

Author:  Rod [ Fri Jun 10, 2022 5:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

I think Nest has a chance, just not nearly as good a chance as Mo Donegal.

The real money in this game is in making a stallion. Mo Donegal has a good resume already, but winning the Belmont Stakes really makes him as a stallion. I think that's the goal here. Winning this race does a lot more for Mo Donegal than it does for Nest. Obviously, Pletcher knows this. I would hope Repole does too, but the guy seems like a dope. It's hard to believe he's a billionaire.

Anyway, I wouldn't exactly call Nest a rabbit for Mo Donegal because I think under the right circumstances she could lean on We The People and win the race, but I'm gonna say that she's in there to make sure that We The People doesn't just skate away on the lead.

Here's what I consider fair odds for each of the horses:

1. We the People (2-1 M/L) If they ran the race 100 times I think he would win 11 times. 8/1 fair odds

2. Skippylongstocking (20-1 M/L) If they ran the race 100 times I think he would win 7 times. 13/1 fair odds

3. Nest (8-1 ML) If they ran the race 100 times I think she would win 17 times. 5/1 fair odds

4. Rich Strike (7-2 ML) If they ran the race 100 times I think he would win 5 times. 19/1 fair odds

5. Creative Minister (6-1 ML) If they ran the race 100 times I think he would win 5 times. 19/1 fair odds

6. Mo Donegal (7-2 ML) If they ran the race 100 times I think he would win 50 times. 1/1 fair odds

7. Golden Glider (20-1 ML) If they ran the race 100 times I think he would win 2 times. 50/1 fair odds

8. Barber Road (10-1 ML) If they ran the race 100 times I think he would win 3 times. 32/1 fair odds

For a wager to offer value I want to get at least 50% more than my fair odds line. For example, Mo Donegal is a bet for me at $1.50/1 or 3/2. Nest would be a bet at 7.50/1. So if Mo Donegal is 2/1 and Nest is 10/1, I have a decision to make. But hopefully the odds board makes the decision for me.

Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

Dignified Rube wrote:
I definitely like Creative Minister in this race with that Preakness finish.

Mo Donegal and Barber Rd. finished 5 and 6 in the Kentucky Derby. Mo Donegal was only one length better.

'
Barber Road had a clean trip in the Derby - he should have finished better. Donegal had a terrible trip at Churchill and can build upon that.

Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:56 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

Olczyk said this morning on Mully and Haugh that his pick to win is Mo Donegal. But he's also using We the People in his exactas. He mentioned We the People and Barber Rd. as one. Rich Strike is not one of his main picks.

He had Secret Oath in the Preakness.

Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Jun 10, 2022 10:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

Cold exacta Mo Donegal and Nest...both are bred to run all day, and particularly down that stretch...it will have a good early pace despite the small field

Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Jun 11, 2022 12:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

Belmont Day

Race 3 Echo Zulu reigns

Race 6 great finish between the 1 Jack Christopher and the 2 Pappacap…exacta box 1,2

Race 9 Met Mile...another great match race (shitty if you want to make some coin, though) between 1-Flightline and 2-Speakers Corner with the latter getting the edge

And in the Belmont as stated earlier cold exacta MoDonegal/Nest

Good luck all

And I just gotta bitch about this, but lack of horses in the field is bad for everybody, stop trying to sugarcoat it with the excuse of “Quality” horses…on these days I expect to see “quality” horses, it's the 3rd leg of the fucking triple crown...the lack of quantity is troubling and it keeps my wallet in my pocket

Good Luck all

Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Jun 11, 2022 7:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

We the People is probably the best horse in the field on this track. He's the only one to have won at Belmont in a graded race.

For that reason, I want to take the horse that's like a fish to water on the Belmont track and that's We the People. No other horse shows the progression for only their fourth race as he made in the Peter Pan, so his speed is unique.

Anything else is overthinking the race as far as winner.

1,4 and 1,5 and 1,3 ex. boxes.

Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Jun 11, 2022 12:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

Speed is holding let's see if the track changes as the day wears on

Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Jun 11, 2022 1:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

where did the races go?

Author:  Hawg Ass [ Sat Jun 11, 2022 3:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

Walt Williams Neck wrote:
where did the races go?

CNBC until 4, then to NBC. Just fucking stupid.

Author:  RFDC [ Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

So we can pretty much say that Mo isnt winning today after JORRs big write up :lol:

Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

Had Tribuvan to show. Wish it had been to win.

Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

We the People W?P Tri 1-5/6 key

Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

Congrats fellows

Author:  Rod [ Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

Two out of three ain't bad!

viewtopic.php?f=129&t=127974&hilit=Mo+donegal

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
2022 Triple Crown:

Kentucky Derby: Zandon
Preakness: Early Voting
Belmont: Mo Donegal


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVvXWUAKtus

Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Jun 11, 2022 6:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Two out of three ain't bad!

viewtopic.php?f=129&t=127974&hilit=Mo+donegal

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
2022 Triple Crown:

Kentucky Derby: Zandon
Preakness: Early Voting
Belmont: Mo Donegal


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVvXWUAKtus


Not quite as impressive as 0-3

Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Jun 11, 2022 10:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Belmont Day

Race 3 Echo Zulu reigns (Scratched)

Race 6 great finish between the 1 Jack Christopher and the 2 Pappacap…exacta box 1,2 (spot on)

Race 9 Met Mile...another great match race (shitty if you want to make some coin, though) between 1-Flightline and 2-Speakers Corner with the latter getting the edge (1, 3)

And in the Belmont as stated earlier cold exacta MoDonegal/Nest (Yep)


Good Luck all

Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Jun 11, 2022 10:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Belmont Stakes

OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Cold exacta Mo Donegal and Nest...both are bred to run all day, and particularly down that stretch...it will have a good early pace despite the small field


:D :D :D

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