NFL Week One

OK guys, here goes. I'll be making team bet predictions on every game this season, but only the five bolded picks get plays. I'll be keeping track of both total record and plays. Very occasionally I'll be playing over/unders as well, but that's not really my bag. As always, this is for entertainment purposes only, and I have never claimed to be a professional gambler (or even very good for that matter), so I want to hear no complaining. All lines come from bodog.com unless otherwise indicated. Home team IN CAPS.

INDY -6.5 vs. New Orleans

Defending champs at home to start the season; the energy in that building is going to be absolutely electric. I also think that the Indy defense has a better chance of holding NO than the other way around. I think that Indy wins by at least a TD to start the year.

HOUSTON -3 vs. Kansas City

Kansas City might be the worst team in the NFL this year. I thought that Vegas would set the line exactly the opposite, and that everyone could clean up. They didn't, but I still like Houston.

Denver -3 vs. BUFFALO

I don't like Buffalo whatsoever, especially the defense. I think that the Denver offense runs wild, and Buffalo can't run the ball well enough to take advantage of Denver's main defensive weakness, their run D. A definite play.

Pittsburgh -4.5 vs. CLEVELAND

Lots of Cleveland love after the draft, but they are still bad. Pitsburgh should cover without too much trouble.

Tennessee +6.5 vs. JACKSONVILLE

Avoid this game. We have absolutely no way of knowing how Jacksonville is going to react after the Leftwich affair. I don't like Tennessee this year, but there are just too many variables, so I'm taking the points.

Carolina +1 vs. ST. LOUIS

I don't understand all the St. Louis love this year. There offense will move the ball, but it's tough to overstate just how bad their defense really is. Carolina had better win this game, or it's going to be a long season of QB controversies and John Fox hot-seatism.

GREEN BAY +3 vs. Philadelphia

This is my "go against your gut" game of the weak, but I think it may take some time before McNabb starts to feel and look right.

Atlanta +3 vs. Minnesota

Minnesota's offense may not score three points, even though Atlanta's defense is no great shakes. I was impressed by how Harrington moved the ball, and I think that Atlanta can score 14 or 17 points, which should be enough. Don't buy this line until Saturday, as it may be +4 or +5.

WASHINGTON -3 vs. Miami

Washington will be better, and Miami will be bad. Enough said.

NYJ +6.5 vs. New England

Surprise! The Jets will hang tough, if for no other reason than it's the Bellicheck/Mangini bowl. New England is overvalued right now, IMO.

SEATTLE -6 vs. Tampa Bay

Seattle at home should cover with TB making the long trip.

OAKLAND -1.5 vs. Detroit

Avoid this game. Who the hell knows? I'll go with the home team, just because.

Chicago +6 vs. SAN DIEGO

This line is completely out of whack. If the Bears can bottle up LT (a big if, but not implausible) it could be a long day for San Diego.

New York Giants +6 vs. DALLAS

I hate Dallas this year, and this game may signal the national Tony Romo meltdown. His success against vanilla preseason defenses is not indicative of how sucky he is going to be this year.

Baltimore +3 vs. CINCINATTI

This one is tough; I don't really know what to expect from either team this year. Either could make the Super Bowl, or either could go 7-9. It'll be a great start to the season, but I'll take the points with theoretical money and avoid the game with my real money.

Arizona +3 vs. SAN FRAN

Don't believe the hype.

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Fire Phil Emery