Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Ohio State at 25-1 seems to have a lot of value. They seem to reload better than anyone. It's still a long shot though but so are a few of the teams in front of them.
My pick is Texas at 11-1 as I expect Colt McCoy to do big things.
I wish I could make a bet against Michigan to win it. They always find a way to lose at least one game early on that they shouldn't to knock themselves out.
I think USC fills the other spot in the title game, but less than 3-1 isn't worth it in my opinion.
Enjoy!
OSU will likely be preseason ranked 13th or 14th in 2007. Here is your breakdown:
QB - This is the biggest question mark coming into this season. OSU loses arguably the greatest OSU QB of all time, and replaces him with a three headed monster just beginning to sort itself out this spring. The leading contender is Todd Boeckman, a 4th year Junior who has been in this system long enough to know the ins and outs. Described as being closer to Craig Krenzel than Troy Smith, Boeckman is a game manager. His job this year will be to keep the chains moving, at all costs. Backing him up (and technically fighting for the starting job) will be Rob Schoenhoft, a huge bodied, strong armed QB who has yet to live up to his top 10 overall recruiting hype, and Antonio Henton, billed as the next Troy Smith, but, entering just his 2nd year, considered a long way off. The good news is that the last time we won a National Title, we did so with a Krenzel type QB, solid running game, and great defense. Overal grade = C due to a lack of star power, experience, or proven leadership.
RB - While this position has its fair share of question marks, nobody can question its talent. Chris "Beanie" Wells came to OSU last year as the #1 ranked player in the nation. He is a 6'1", 230 lb., 19 year old with breakaway speed demonstrated in his 50+ yard TD run against Michigan last year. With Pittman gone, Wells will get the full load that his powerful frame claims he can handle. He needs to reduce those fumbling numbers from last year to give OSU a chance. Backing up Wells, is the third Wells to run in an OSU backfield since 2000 (the first was Jonathan Wells). Maurice Wells, beaten out as the backup RB by Beanie last year, returns for his junior year as OSU's 3rd down/change of pace back. Wells is small and quick and can catch the ball out of the backfield. Joining these two are two freshman ranked among the top 25 RB's in the nation out of high school, "Boom" Herron and Brandon Saine. Saine, weighing in at 220 pounds, is known around Ohio as the man who broke Ted Ginn's 110 meter hurdle State record last year. Now that's speed. Overall Grade = B+ due to an overabundance of talent, but light on experience.
FB = OSU returns Senior Dionte Johnson, son of Pepper Johnson, as their full time FB this year. Dionte is a well built 240 pounds and an excellent blocker for Antonio Pittman last year. He is considered one of the best blocking FB's in the nation. Overall Grade = A+ for premier player at his position.
WR = At the WR position, OSU will spend a lot of time in 3 wide formations. They feature the Brians, Hartline and Robiskie, as their two primary targets. Both were heavily featured all season last year as the #3 and #4 receivers behind Ginn and Gonzalez. Both had big plays (Robiskie against Texas and Hartline against Michigan) in key situations. Both have good size (6'3"+) and above average speed (sub 4.5). The two sophomores will line up with either one of two players in the slot. Albert Dukes was recruited to be the next Santonio Holmes. With unprecedented ability, Dukes has so far thrown it all away with legal problem after legal problem. Will he put it all together for one last run? We'll see. If he can't, super sophomore Ray Small, unstoppable until he was injured with a broken jaw last year, and uncoverable when playing the role of Percy Harvin in prep work against Florida, Small brings unbelievable sprinter speed, outstanding agility, and great hands to the field for OSU. He is a leading candidate to return kicks and punts this year. OSU will also showcase Devon Lyons, a converted safety, this year. Lyons is 6'4" and weighs about 220 lbs. and will be used like Roy Hall last year in situational roles. As far as depth is concerned, OSU landed a pair of 4 star players in last year's class, but both are expected to redshirt this season. Overall grade = B for depth and overall ability, but limited experience.
TE = At TE, three year starter Rory Nicol returns. The former #2 overall ranked TE out of High School as been very solid in his time with OSU. His backup will be converted OG Jake Ballard, who was moved when he showcased impressive speed for a 6'7" man and solid hands. Ballard's blocking is obviously the best of any OSU TE. Overall Grade = A due to solid run blocking role player and premier conference TE.
OL = OSU returns the bulk of what amounted to a premier Big Ten O-line. This O-line completely shutdown Michigan's vaunted D-line in the Michigan game, but were beaten by speed rushers off the edge against Florida. With many of those opponents moving on, but all of OSU's big boys returning, the Buckeyes will showcase one of the best and deepest O-lines in the nation. At the Tackle spots, OSU returns Kirk Barton and Alex Boone, both considered 1st day picks in next year's NFL draft. At Guard, the Buckeyes return Steve Rehring and spot starter Ben Person. Rehring is the beast of the group, at just under 6'9" and weighing in at a reported 350 lbs. He is considered a premier guard prospect. At Center, OSU will replace two time starter Doug Datish with Super Sophomore Jim Cordle. Last year, Cordle was slated to start at Center with Datish moving to his natural Guard position, until Cordle tore up his knee and sat out the season. Now, he is back. Backing up this group is a very deep and experienced group including Jon Skinner, Josh Kerr, Kyle Mitchum, Bryant Browning, and Connor Smith (most returning to the two deep again). Overall Grade = A+ due to four sure fire NFL prospects and a ton of depth here.
Offensive overall grade = B-. OSU lost a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball with Pittman, Smith, Gonzo, and Ginn, but they have replaced those players with the next wave of talent. Inexperience and a questionable QB situation that will force them to alter their offense to a more 2002 style will be the biggest issues facing this team offensively. With an elite level O-line and a great stable of RB's led by Beanie, OSU should be able to control the games and the clock against their opponents.
DT = This position is the biggest question mark on defense. OSU lost two studs inside and has a tough job trying to replace them. The first replacement is Todd Denlinger. Denlinger is a 2nd year player that has outshined many recruits ranked higher than him out of high school. He has truly earned his way on the field, much the same way as a couple other DT's in recent OSU history. An accomplished wrestler in high school, Denlinger is a master of leverage. Next to him, one of the highest rated OSU recruits of all time will take the field for the first time ever. Doug Worthington was the #1 rated DE in the nation out of high school, but the 6'7", 260 lb speed rusher blew out his knee in his first season before he could ever take the field. Its been a long road back, but the redshirt sophomore who has admittedly lost a step, packed on some extra pounds this year and will lineup at a robust, but still explosive for a DT, 290 lbs. Worthington should be quite the sight to see inside as he has been described as a monster capable of taking over the interior of any offensive line. Backing up Worthington and Denlinger are Dexter Larimore, the State of Indiana's all-time greatest heavyweight wrestler in high school, and Nader Abdallah, a 310 lb. road grader. The surprise in spring camp so far though, has been Cameron Heyward, son of Ironhead Heyward, and a 6'6", 320 pound 17 year old. Heyward is also the #1 ranked PF in the State of Georgia and is considered very athletic for his size (much like his 300 lb. running back father). Many feel he may challenge Denlinger for a starting spot by midseason and push past Abdallah and Larimore before the season starts. Overall Grade = B- due to complete overhaul of starters at the position, but loads of talent inside.
DE = This is OSU's bread an butter this year. OSU returns what is likely the best DE combo in the nation with Vernon Gholston (who seriously looks like a professional bodybuilder and has just 3% body fat at 270 lbs.) and Lawrence Wilson, another 275 lb. speed rusher. The two are both NFL superstars in the making, multi-year starters at OSU, and both are only Juniors this year. Last year, they had one of the best sack tandem years of any DE combo in OSU history and they were just Sophomores!!! This year promises to be even more devastating. Backing them up are Robert Rose, the super Sophomore who last year as a Freshman, worked into the #3 DE spot with Wilson and Gholston and set an OSU record for sacks as a Freshman DE. Rose, thinking he would have a better shot at playing DT this year, bulked up to 285 pounds, but OSU coaches felt they couldn't lose his speed on the edge, so even at 280+, he will stay as the #3 DE for the Bucks this year and hope one of those guys goes pro early. They will also use him inside on passing downs. The #4 DE, also likely to see some PT, is Alex Barrow. Barrow, also just a redshirt sophomore, would start on just about any other Big Ten team at DE. He is 280 lbs., as well, and can play inside or outside for the Bucks. Overall Grade = A+ for having the premier DE combo in the nation and being loaded with super talented depth.
LB = This position speaks for itself for the Buckeyes. In the history of OSU, no true fan can remember a Buckeye unit that was this deep at the LB position. OSU returns all of their top 5 LB's from last year's #1 ranked unit in College Football. It all begins and ends with James Laurinaitus. James, son of a professional wrestler, was the most dominant defensive player in the Big Ten last year as a sophomore. He returns in the middle. On the outside, Marcus Freeman anchors down the weakside linebacker spot for the 3rd year in a row. Freeman is considered the next great OLB for OSU, and just a Junior himself. Marcus tips at about 250 lbs. and ran a sub 4.5 at OSU's Pro Day this past year. He is a freakish player who is always in proper position and is athletic enough to cover a receiver in the slot, let alone a TE. On the other side, OSU returns Larry Grant. The JUCO transfer last year was in on several key plays for OSU during the 2006 season and with outstanding athleticism, can play man up on any TE in the Big Ten. The #4 LB is my favorite player on OSU's team. Curtis Terry is #55 and many of you will remember him being in on what seemed like every major play OSU had last year defensively. He was forcing turnovers, stuffing goalline runs, running back INT's, etc. Terry is the ultimate freak. A converted safety, Terry packed on 50 lbs. in 3 years to bulk up to 245. He somehow managed to do this without losing his 4.45 speed and will be everywhere this year. OSU plans on moving Terry from inside backer to outside backer to a stand up rusher to speed rusher in a 3 point, and possibly will be utilized as a safety in goalline. The ultimate utility man, Terry will play on the line, at LB, and in the secondary in 2007. With those four, OSU also has Ross Homan, a top 5 high school LB last year who many felt has the tools to be the next A.J. Hawk. Homan will see the field in the 5 man rotation this year. And finally Austin Spitler, Jermale Hines, and Brian Rolle, all four star recruits, waiting in the wings behind that front 5. Overall Grade = A+ for being arguably the best LB starting group in the nation and unquestionably the deepest LB group in the nation.
CB = At CB, OSU has a ton of returning talent. Starting at one CB position, OSU features Malcolm Jenkins, the premier shutdown cover corner in the Big Ten. Jenkins will likely be among the premier cover CB's in the nation this year. Lining up opposite him will be Donald Washington. Washington is a converted WR who moved to the other side of the ball when in a drill as a freshman, he managed to shut down Ted Ginn one on one for 10 consecutive plays. Washington was hurt most of last year, but will finally get a shot to spend the entire season on the field for OSU as a starter, hopefully without nagging injuries. Backing them up are Andre Amos, another converted WR and Chimdi Chekwa, a converted Safety. 4 star Freshman James Scott and 4 star Freshman Safety Devon Torrence will likely convert to a CB position after rejecting the Houston Astros offer to go to the minors. Overall Grade = A due to having the premier shutdown corner in the conference and a boatload of talent.
S = Safety is a unique position. OSU will return Jamario O'Neal, who will become a 3 year starter, to the SS position. But the battle for the FS position is wide open. In one corner, you have Kurt Coleman. Coleman was a top 10 ranked CB coming out of high school, but with his quick reaction and break on the ball combined with his ability to knock you out, was converted to a safety. Coleman has looked dominant in spring camp and if he continues, the position is his to lose. The contenders are led by all everything S/CB/WR recruit Eugene Clifford, the top recruit in this past season's recruiting class. Clifford is 6'3" and runs a 4.4 flat. He is described as being freakishly athletically gifted and was an all-state player in football, baseball, and basketball. Clifford is believed to be able to play and/or dominate at just about any position he chooses to play. At 210 lbs., many feel that with his aggressive style of play, he could even grow into a LB or DE. His best shot to play and play early is either as a nickel back or as a FS and that's where the battle begins. The final contender is Nick Patterson. Patterson is in line for the throne, so to speak, but the Junior is running out of time to make an impact that these other two are sure to make. He needs a surprisingly huge camp to beat these two out. Also, backing them up are a host of talented players. Aaron Gant is a 210 lb. safety, Grant Schwartz was highly regarded out of high school in last year's recruiting class, Ty Moeller is a converted LB to SS due to his speed for a 215 lb man, and in the most recent recruiting class, OSU also brought in 4 star player Nate Oliver. Overall Grade = A due to overwhelming talent, but only an "A" due to the battle between Coleman and Clifford.
Overall Defensive Grade = A+. OSU returns basically the entire #1 ranked defense from last year. The only difference is that they have added a boatload of talented depth behind them and they have another year of experience under their belts. The interior D-line should work itself out within the first couple weeks and OSU doesn't face a very challenging opponent until week 9 against Penn State on the road. Plenty of time to work out any kinks. They are loaded at all of the key skill positions (DE, LB, CB) and have gobs of talent in all of the other holes.
K/P = OSU has the best returning Kicker/Punter combination in the Big Ten and arguably in the nation with Aaron Pettrey and A.J. Trapasso. Trapasso averaged over 40 yards a punt last year and Pettrey was 8 of 11 kicking FG's and 2 of 3 from 50+. Both are sophomores.
Overall Special Teams = A with the kicker combination, but plenty of sorting between a lot of athletic guys for kick return duties. Ray Small is likely to return as the kickoff and punt returner.
Offense = B-
Defense = A+
SP Teams = A
Overall Team Grade = A-
Schedule and Predicted Outcomes
Week 1 - Youngstown State at Home
OSU should dismantle YSU in Columbus. Tressel set this up so that his old school could get a share in the big money, which they will split from the ticket sales of what should be a sold out 'Shoe. The Buckeyes should have their backups in by halftime and walk away 1-0. Prediction: 56-10
Week 2 - Akron at Home
OSU will come into this game high off of their 56-10 route of Youngstown State and anxious to prove themselves. Although they should destroy Akron, I think they'll be a little stiff from their previous week's blow out and won't play up to par. I see OSU winning this ball game, but by a 28-14 margin. OSU leaves the 'Shoe 2-0.
Week 3 - At Washington
While Washington sounds like the first tough competition on the schedule, they are not. Washington is coming off an abysmal year last year where they tanked in the final 8 games of the season. They are starting a redshirt freshman QB against what should be one of the fastest, most aggressive defenses he will ever see in his career. OSU will force a boatload of turnovers in this game and run away with a more-lopsided-than-the-score-shows victory. OSU wins 27-3 and moves to 3-0.
Week 4 - Northwestern at Home
Northwestern doesn't have a good shot in this one unless they can force a lot of turnovers. OSU's current defense and the defense Northwestern will see again, did a great job of shutting down the spread formations they faced all season (except for Florida). Unless Northwestern can produce some of Florida's speed overnight, they will have a hard time duplicating the effectiveness of Urban Meyer's offense. OSU should take this one easily, 42-20, and move to 4-0.
Week 5 - At Minnesota
In previous years, this game would concern me, especially with OSU entering into a questionable offensive year, and playing a primetime road game at night. This year will be different. Minnesota returns 10 starters off of a bad defense, so experience is not the issue here. They lack talent on this side of the ball and with a lot of inexperience on the other side, its going to be a long season for Minnesota. They may win 7 games this year if they're lucky, and that's with a weak non-conference schedule. OSU should be able to shut down Minnesota and leave Minneapolis with a 24-10 win, 5-0, and heading to West Lafayette.
Week 6 - At Purdue
OSU's 2nd consecutive primetime game, and again its a road game under the lights. This game is actually concerning. OSU doesn't play especially well under the lights unless they are a dominating team and this year's ball club is not that on the offensive side. The other recipe for disaster here is that Joe Tiller hasn't had an offense with this many weapons since Drew Brees was in town (granted, they aren't Pro Bowlers, but there are a lot of them). OSU's defense will be their toughest test. Their run defense is suspect and if OSU can establish a running game here to take the crowd out of it and keep that offense off the field, they should win. I predict a close, hard fought victory. OSU wins 27-24 and moves to 6-0.
Week 7 - Kent State at Home
This Kent State team is unlikely to beat OSU. I'm not sure when the last time OSU lost to a MAC team was, but I'm pretty sure if it ever happened, it was long ago. I doubt this is the time or the team to pull that off, so I see OSU taking down KSU by a lopsided score of 35-7, advancing to 7-0.
Week 8 - Michigan State at Home
Michigan State, minus Drew Stanton and all that is good, is going to be brutal this year. I don't see them cracking .500, but with Mark D'Antonio as the new head coach, I'm not sure that will stay that way for long. D'Antonio will need just a couple recruiting classes to build a defense that can play against anybody, so come 2009, watch out. For now, I don't think so. In this matchup at the 'Shoe, OSU should handle a below average Michigan State team that is turning things around. OSU wins 34-17 and moves to 8-0.
Week 9 - At Penn State
At this point in the season, OSU is 8-0, probably moved from being ranked 13th to a top 5 and possibly a top 3 ranking. But the pain is about to begin. OSU will face the month long test that will determine the direction of the entire season begining on 10/27 in Happy Valley...under the lights. The last time they were here, OSU was en route to a National Title after stumbling at Texas early on, but that would all end when they were derailed by Joe Paterno and the Nittany Lions during the "White Out". The White Out will return and OSU will face its stiffest test to date. Penn State is loaded with offensive weapons if QB Anthony Morelli decides to play real football this year. If not, it will be a long year for the Nittany Lions. On defense, Penn State is loaded at LB and the Secondary, but suspect up front. They will have to stop an OSU running game that should be among the best in the nation. OSU's defense matches up well here and could force Morelli into a lot of mistakes with pressure off the edge. I see OSU faltering in this matchup. The Buckeyes just don't do well under the lights on the road and against a crowd of 100K+ screaming fans on National television, it could prove too much. OSU loses a tough one, 31-17. Buckeyes fall to 8-1.
Week 10 - Wisconsin at home.
Wisconsin is phase 2 of the death march OSU will face at the end of the year. Luckily, they get this opponent at home. Wisconsin is exactly what they always are. On offense, they will line up with a huge O-line, and they will try and run the ball down your throat with a 250+ lb. PJ Hill. Hill was a 1500+ yard back in 2006 and running beside him will be the #1 ranked power RB in the nation out of High School. That combo should be enough to wear down just about everyone they face. Luckily, OSU has a loaded front seven that is incredibly deep and should be able to rotate enough raw talent to counteract the effect of being worn down in this showdown. On defense, Wisconsin will try and pressure you with average size, fast D-lineman, a decent LB core, and hard hitting, explosive DB's. Their D-line and secondary are their strength, but OSU should be able to move the ball on the ground against them. I see another hard fought battle, but OSU pulling this close one out, 17-14...in a cloud of dust. OSU moves to 9-1 and welcomes Illinois.
Week 11 - Illinois at Home
Just when you think OSU gets a reprieve, you are wrong. I could see Illinois coming into this game with 6 wins if Juice Williams gets rolling. Illinois has receivers and TE's to throw to, a young and talented O-line, a phenomenal and freakish QB, and a decent running game. They are young, but if they can figure things out, they are talented enough to give most teams fits. Trying to keep Juice in the pocket is not going to be easy. He's built like a mini-McNabb and has a cannon for an arm in case anybody gets deep. OSU should be able to overwhelm this offense with talent and experience, but it won't be as easy as you'd think. On Defense, Illinois returns 9 starters from a surprisingly tough defense last year. If their offense is any good, they could win some games as the defense should keep them in it to the very end. OSU will have to pound to win and I think ultimately they do, but it won't be easy. I say OSU wins 24-17 in a game that is closer than people think. OSU moves to 10-1, probably a top 7 ranking, and showdown against a Michigan ball club that could be ranked as high as #1 in the polls (if USC stumbles).
Week 12 - At Michigan
This matchup comes down to my brain and my heart. In my brain, the matchups seem to favor Michigan. They return the same offense and we return the same defense, but in last year's matchup, that offense obliterated our vaunted defense. Fluke chance or pure dominance? Or a little of both. Michigan wasn't destroying anybody like that all year and OSU wasn't giving up that kind of yardage and points all year. Both anomalies hit at the same time and produced an offensive explosion like an Arena League game. This year, I think Michigan will score points again. They have an assortment of weapons, even though I think Henne and Hart are overrated. On Defense, they were just as dismantled as we were on offense, which is where we have our chance. Preseason rankings are based more on offense than on defense and that is the inherent danger of preseason polling. Teams like Michigan, bound to lack a solid defense, can lose unexpected games to teams like Purdue who get on an offensive roll or to teams like Wisconsin that can pound the ball and keep Michigan's offense off the field. Without a defense, you can't be expected to win the big games when it counts. History has shown this time and time again. OSU needs to control the ground and the clock. If they can, they can win. Being at Michigan, it makes things tougher, but the answer is clear. OSU has a shot with the right combination of talent to meet Michigan's weakness. We have a great record against Michigan over the past few years and I think Hart and Henne are overrated. On top of all of that, picking Michigan over OSU is blaphemy where I come from, so I take OSU over Michigan in a dog fight that goes down to the final seconds again. OSU 30, Michigan 28, on a last second Pettrey 50 yard FG to win it all and send OSU to the Rose Bowl!!!
I see OSU at 11-1 this year. If they play USC in the Rose Bowl, they'll lkely get trounced, but I like my odds against all other PAC-10 opponents. They should run right through their schedule with their first challenging game at Purdue on the road, under the lights. Their 2nd challenge comes against Penn State, also on the road, and also under the lights. I see them losing this game. Their 3rd major challenge comes against Wisconsin, at home, in a smash mouth, who's tougher than who affair. I think we are. While Illinois is tough, I won't count them as a major challenge this year (but maybe next). That brings up Michigan, the 4th and final major challenge for OSU this year. My brain says Michigan, but my heart won't let the words come out of my mouth in any other order other than OSU beats Michigan.
I'm spent.
Enjoy the season...
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