| Chicago Fanatics Message Board https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/ |
|
| Preakness 2024 https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=132011 |
Page 1 of 1 |
| Author: | W_Z [ Wed May 15, 2024 10:34 am ] |
| Post subject: | Preakness 2024 |
Muth out. Now it could be a fun race. My only hedge win from the Derby was Sieze the Grey. Hmm… |
|
| Author: | Rod [ Wed May 15, 2024 10:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Preakness 2024 |
Now the other Baffert just wires the field. But you get 7/2 instead of 7/5. BONUS! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ivWW4Xh628 Jon Stettin is a good handicapper and I respect his opinion but something he says here is just objectively wrong. Handicapping is subjective but how to bet is objective. He says he "doesn't bet against the horse he likes." Well, "liking" a horse is the first problem. The race is a puzzle. Each horse has a chance(s). It's the handicapper's job to assess those chances. The most likely winner isn't always the right bet. This is Gambling 101. Yet Jon will turn around and say he made the "right bet" in the Derby with Sierra Leone at 9/2. That may have been the right bet based on his assessment but it flies in the face of his contention that "there is no value in a losing bet." I've heard old guys say, "You can beat a race but you can't beat the races." That's exactly backward. I would never guarantee I could beat a race, but a few of us can beat the races. |
|
| Author: | W_Z [ Wed May 15, 2024 11:41 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Preakness 2024 |
Mystik Dan will probably go to 4/5 or so and Imagination will be 2/1 or 9/5 or some shit. I hope Mugato hits the board, and Just Steel to have some odd “Zoolander” reference. |
|
| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Wed May 15, 2024 12:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Preakness 2024 |
Simply too few runners in this race means that there will be less losing tickets, and consequently no value. Friday card maybe good |
|
| Author: | Rod [ Wed May 15, 2024 1:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Preakness 2024 |
I think Gun Song is pretty strong in the Blackeyed Susan. I'm going to try to get live in the two-day double. As for the Preakness, Imagination appears to be lone speed now that his stablemate is out. I expect him to be in the 5/2-7/2 range which I consider a fair overlay. Here's my personal line for the race: 1 ) Mugatu 200/1 2 ) Uncle Heavy 50/1 3 ) Catching Freedom 5/1 4 ) Muth SCRATCHED 5 ) Mystik Dan 5/1 6 ) Seize the Grey 33/1 7 ) Just Steel 30/1 8 ) Tuscan Gold 6/1 9 ) Imagination 6/5 |
|
| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri May 17, 2024 3:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Preakness 2024 |
This Pletcher 2-Value Area is just that at 24-1 on the Friday Preakness card |
|
| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri May 17, 2024 4:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Preakness 2024 |
"My Cherie Amor" indeed...trainer Cherie DeVaux getting it done today...alive to the 5,7 and 8 in the Pick 5 |
|
| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri May 17, 2024 5:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Preakness 2024 |
that works, see ya tomorrow |
|
| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat May 18, 2024 12:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Preakness 2024 |
Liked Just Steel in the Derby ran a clunker so I am coming right back with him here picks up Rosario ...also like Uncle Heavy (Rube) picks up Irad good luck |
|
| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat May 18, 2024 12:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Preakness 2024 |
Alive to the 3,6,7/1,6/6,10,12 in the Race 5 Pick 5 and starting a new P5 here in Race 7 3,6,7/1,6/2,6,10,12/5,6,10/1,11,12 |
|
| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat May 18, 2024 4:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Preakness 2024 |
Rain stayed away Have nothit in any Pick 5's but alive in the final to the 3,4,5 and the 3,5,8 and 9 in the Preakness...but I fucked up and left the 9-Beatbox off my ticket in the 12th, and will probably pay for it Don't make that mistake |
|
| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat May 18, 2024 5:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Preakness 2024 |
whew alive to the 3,5,8 and 9 in the final Pick5 |
|
| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat May 18, 2024 6:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Preakness 2024 |
Fucked me but happy for you, W_Z! |
|
| Author: | Rod [ Sat May 18, 2024 7:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Preakness 2024 |
Tough game. I didn't like the way any of them raced. I thought Mystik Dan was probably the best. Seize the Grey grabbed the lead and that was that. Tuscan Gold didn't handle at all. I still think Resilience may be the best of this group. I hope Mott doesn't get convinced he's a miler. |
|
| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Mon May 20, 2024 6:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Preakness 2024 |
The one time I really believe in the Baffert horse, he screws me. Yeah, I lost but Baffert suffered greater embarrassment with Imagination. |
|
| Page 1 of 1 | All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ] |
| Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group https://www.phpbb.com/ |
|