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College Football is here!!!
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=13351		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  BD [ Tue Jul 24, 2007 8:12 pm ]
Post subject:  College Football is here!!!
College football preseason poll compilation. The Big Ten should has three of the top eleven teams, but in depth, the SEC dominates. USC should be borderline unbeatable this year, returning just about their entire team at most key positions except WR and playing in a weak PAC-10.

Here is a look at the Preseason Consensus Poll on July 24:


Preseason Consensus Poll

(First-Place votes; last year’s record in parentheses)


1. USC (12 first-place votes; 11-2), 324 points

2. LSU (1; 11-2), 298 points

3. West Virginia (11-2), 280 points

4. Michigan (11-2), 270 points

5. Texas (10-3), 256 points

6. Florida (13-1), 251 points

7. Wisconsin (12-1), 237 points

8. Oklahoma (11-3), 234 points

9. Virginia Tech (10-3), 224 points

10. Louisville (12-1), 192 points

11. Ohio State (12-1), 178 points

12. Georgia (9-4), 140 points

13. California (10-3), 135 points

14. Arkansas (10-4), 126 points

15. Rutgers (11-2), 123 points

16. UCLA (7-6), 111 points

17. Tennessee (9-4), 102 points

18. Auburn (11-2), 101 points

19. Penn State (9-4), 94 points

20. Nebraska (9-5), 74.5 points

21. TCU (11-2), 71 points

22. Texas A&M (9-4), 61 points

23. Florida State (7-6), 59 points

24. South Carolina (8-5), 40 points

25. Boise State (13-0), 34 points

26. Hawaii (11-3), 29 points

27. Wake Forest (11-3), 27 points

28. Boston College (10-3), 25 points

29. Alabama (6-7), 23 points

30. Georgia Tech (9-5), 17 points

31. Missouri (8-5), 15.5 points

32. Oregon State (10-4), 14 points

33. South Florida (9-4), 12 points

34. Arizona State (7-6), 10 points

35. (tie) BYU (11-2), 9 points

35. (tie) Clemson (8-5), 9 points

37. Oregon (7-6), 8 points

38. (tie) Arizona (6-6), 2 points

38. (tie) Miami (Fla.) (7-6), 2 points

38. (tie) Notre Dame (10-3), 2 points

38. (tie) Southern Miss (9-5), 2 points


Lindy’s


1. USC

2. LSU

3. Michigan

4. West Virginia

5. Texas

6. Wisconsin

7. Tennessee

8. Virginia Tech

9. Louisville

10. Oklahoma

11. Florida

12. California

13. Ohio State

14. Arkansas

15. TCU

16. Rutgers

17. Georgia

18. Texas A&M

19. Hawaii

20. Wake Forest

21. Florida State

22. UCLA

23. Auburn

24. Boston College

25. Nebraska


Athlon Sports


1. USC

2. Texas

3. LSU

4. Wisconsin

5. West Virginia

6. Florida

7. Oklahoma

8. Michigan

9. Virginia Tech

10. Rutgers

11. California

12. Ohio State

13. Louisville

14. Georgia Tech

15. UCLA

16. Georgia

17. Penn State

18. Nebraska

19. Hawaii

20. Tennessee

21. Auburn

22. Oregon State

23. Texas A&M

24. Miami (Fla.)

25. TCU


The Sporting News


1. USC

2. LSU

3. Michigan

4. West Virginia

5. Florida

6. Texas

7. Virginia Tech

8. Wisconsin

9. Louisville

10. UCLA

11. Florida State

12. California

13. Oklahoma

14. Georgia

15. Penn State

16. Auburn

17. Ohio State

18. Tennessee

19. Rutgers

20. TCU

21. South Florida

22. Boise State

23. Nebraska

24. Southern Miss

25. BYU


Phil Steele’s College Football Preview


1. USC

2. LSU

3. Oklahoma

4. West Virginia

5. Michigan

6. Texas

7. Louisville

8. Florida State

9. Virginia Tech

10. Penn State

11. Georgia

12. Hawaii

13. South Carolina

14. Florida

15. Ohio State

16. Wisconsin

17. Alabama

18. Oregon

19. Missouri

20. Texas A&M

21. UCLA

22. Nebraska

23. TCU

24. South Florida

25. Tennessee


Street & Smith’s


1. USC

2. West Virginia

3. Wisconsin

4. LSU

5. Michigan

6. Florida

7. Oklahoma

8. Texas

9. Virginia Tech

10. Louisville

11. California

12. Arkansas

13. Penn State

14. Auburn

15. Ohio State

16. Georgia

17. UCLA

18. Missouri

19. Rutgers

20. Nebraska

21. Tennessee

22. Clemson

23. TCU

24. Oregon State

25. Boise State


CBS SportsLine.com (preview magazine)


1. USC

2. LSU

3. Michigan

4. West Virginia

5. Florida

6. Wisconsin

7. Louisville

8. Texas

9. Oklahoma

10. Virginia Tech

11. Auburn

12. UCLA

13. Arkansas

14. California

15. Ohio State

16. Tennessee

17. TCU

18. Rutgers

19. Boise State

20. Georgia

21. Texas A&M

22. Penn State

23. Boston College

24. Nebraska

25. Hawaii


StatFox.com


1. USC

2. Texas

3. Florida

4. Wisconsin

5. West Virginia

6. LSU

7. Ohio State

8. Arkansas

9. Michigan

10. Virginia Tech

11. Nebraska

12. Oklahoma

13. Rutgers

14. Florida State

15. Georgia

16. Tennessee

17. TCU

18. Texas A&M

19. Alabama

20. Wake Forest

21. Clemson

22. Oregon State

23. South Florida

24. Arizona

25. Auburn


CBS SportsLine.com (Dennis Dodd)


1. USC

2. LSU

3. Michigan

4. West Virginia

5. Wisconsin

6. Virginia Tech

7. Florida

8. Texas

9. Louisville

10. Oklahoma

11. Auburn

12. California

13. UCLA

14. Tennessee

15. Ohio State

16. Arkansas

17. TCU

18. Rutgers

19. Boise State

20. Georgia

21. South Carolina

22. Texas A&M

23. BYU

24. Notre Dame

25. (tie) Nebraska

25. (tie) Missouri


SI.com (Stewart Mandel)


1. USC

2. LSU

3. Florida

4. West Virginia

5. Louisville

6. Michigan

7. Virginia Tech

8. Texas

9. Oklahoma

10. Wisconsin

11. Ohio State

12. Rutgers

13. Arkansas

14. Penn State

15. Boise State

16. Auburn

17. Tennessee

18. Nebraska

19. Georgia

20. California

21. TCU

22. UCLA

23. Oregon State

24. South Carolina

25. South Florida


NationalChamps.net


1. USC

2. LSU

3. Michigan

4. Florida

5. West Virginia

6. Wisconsin

7. Texas

8. Oklahoma

9. Louisville

10. Ohio State

11. Virginia Tech

12. Arkansas

13. California

14. Auburn

15. Georgia

16. Rutgers

17. Penn State

18. Nebraska

19. Tennessee

20. Texas A&M

21. Boston College

22. UCLA

23. TCU

24. South Carolina

25. South Florida


ESPN.com (Mark Schlabach)


1. USC

2. Michigan

3. West Virginia

4. Wisconsin

5. Oklahoma

6. Virginia Tech

7. Texas

8. Florida

9. California

10. LSU

11. Louisville

12. Arkansas

13. Rutgers

14. Ohio State

15. Texas A&M

16. Georgia

17. Penn State

18. Nebraska

19. TCU

20. Auburn

21. Tennessee

22. Boise State

23. UCLA

24. Wake Forest

25. Alabama


CollegeFootballNews.com


1. USC

2. LSU

3. Texas

4. Florida

5. Wisconsin

6. Ohio State

7. Oklahoma

8. Arkansas

9. UCLA

10. Michigan

11. West Virginia

12. Georgia

13. Virginia Tech

14. Auburn

15. Nebraska

16. Tennessee

17. Florida State

18. California

19. Boston College

20. Texas A&M

21. Rutgers

22. Georgia Tech

23. TCU

24. Penn State

25. Oregon State


AutumnSpectacle.com


1. LSU

2. USC

3. West Virginia

4. Oklahoma

5. Louisville

6. Michigan

7. Georgia

8. South Carolina

9. Virginia Tech

10. Ohio State

11. Florida

12. Texas

13. Wake Forest

14. Rutgers

15. UCLA

16. Arizona State

17. Penn State

18. Boston College

19. California

20. Alabama

21. BYU

22. Texas A&M

23. TCU

24. Wisconsin

25. Georgia Tech
Author:  Brick [ Tue Jul 24, 2007 8:21 pm ]
Post subject: 
USC has a really tough schedule. The Pac-10 should be good this year, but they say that every year. I really think that Texas will be great as long as Colt McCoy is good to go.

Once again, the Big East will be the most overrated conference in the country. They seem to always end up with a few teams undefeated or with one loss. With that said, look out for South Florida as the talent pool they are tapping into is going to start paying off eventually.
Author:  buryman [ Wed Jul 25, 2007 3:53 pm ]
Post subject: 
How real is it that Hawaii goes undefeated and breaks more scoring records?
Author:  Brick [ Wed Jul 25, 2007 7:34 pm ]
Post subject: 
buryman wrote:
How real is it that Hawaii goes undefeated and breaks more scoring records?


With that schedule, they have a good shot at both. It won't matter though, but it may get them to a BCS game.

Before someone talks about how no one will schedule them, they have built up a reputation over many years of being a bad game to schedule(ref improprieties, cheap shots, bad fan base). Add in the fact that the trip is long for teams to make and if you are a team from a major conference, you are playing in their biggest game of the year and no one will go there.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Wed Aug 01, 2007 5:43 pm ]
Post subject: 
Taking my annual week on the beach and doing my preseason number crunching. What I crunched today was the case for betting big dogs. The message is simple: Betting on bad college teams at home is, historically, a good bet.

In 2005, double digit home dogs covered at a 67% clip. Last year, they covered at (only) a 54% clip. The two year-total: double digit home dogs were 103-65 ATS =61%.

Why are double digit home dogs profitable bets? Because many bettors refuse to play them. Double digit home dogs are vastly inferior teams to their favored opponents. There are many bettors who simply will not bet on teams they believe have no chance to win a game outright. It’s human nature to bet only teams that you think are going to win a game. It goes very much against human nature to bet on a team that you know is going to lose a game, but to bet that they will lose by less than the spread.

This is one of the factors that results in an imbalance of more people playing big favorites than those playing big dogs. It’s one reason why in games with big spreads, the favorite is nearly always overpriced and the value nearly always lies with the dog. There are far more people willing to lay the wood then hold their nose and take the dog. Oddsmakers know this and regularly have to inflate point spreads over their true intrinsic (power rating + home field) values to attract closer to equal action.

All angles for home teams are profitable, but the other home team angles are not nearly as profitable as home DD dogs. Home favorites overall the last two years were 432-393 (52%). And home dogs of less than 10 points were just 136-116 (54%).

The power of the home field is most important to bad teams. The ATS performance of DD home dogs makes the case that these teams often play above their talent when at home against a big favorite. Compare their ATS performance with that of DD road dogs. It is not nearly as good, with DD road dogs in the last two years producing a losing 216-241. That shows the value of the home field to bad teams. While DD home dogs were very profitable, DD road dogs were not. The conclusion from this data is that whatever additional value the big road dogs received in the spreads was not nearly enough to make them profitable when playing a much better team on the road.

I know that betting on bad teams is not the way most people bet. Many people want to play the popular, public, favored teams. That might make your Saturdays more fun. It usually will not make them more profitable.
Author:  doug - evergreen park [ Wed Aug 01, 2007 5:53 pm ]
Post subject: 
I have a feeling I'll be turning a lot of ND games off at halftime. :x
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Thu Aug 02, 2007 2:11 pm ]
Post subject: 
Preseason Power Ratings
(Source: Phil Steele)
(Add 3-5 points for home field to determine estimated point spread)

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Author:  Chus [ Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:46 pm ]
Post subject: 
Regular season wins:

Iowa under 8.5
Florida under 9.5
Author:  Chus [ Thu Aug 30, 2007 8:36 am ]
Post subject: 
Regular season wins:

Iowa under 8.5
Florida under 9.5
Auburn over 8.5
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