How Much Do You Bet?

How much is your bankroll for the coming football season? If you don't have a defined bankroll, you should. So let's ask it another way. How much would you be willing to lose betting football before you quit and call it a year?

2nd question: How much do you typically bet per game? I believe money management is one of the most common mistakes made by sports gamblers. Specifically, many bettors bet too much per game for the size of their bankroll. If you have more winning bets than losers, yet are down financially, then this applies to you. If you run out of money before the season ends, then it applies to you. If you think you are good at picking winners, but never seem to have winning seasons financially, then this applies to you.

3rd question: What is your historical win % in college football? IN the NFL? In other sports? If you don't have accurate records, start keeping them. Know your historical win percentage in each sport. Then use a basic Kelly strategy to size your bets...and they might be different for each sport based on your win %.

The link below provides a basic treatise on basic Kelly Strategy and a calculator to help you determine how to size your bets. Plug in different win rates...53%,54%, 55%, 56%, 57% etc. to see the effect on bet sizes assuming you have different win rates. Historic win rates is one way to calculate your win rate. Another is to plug in your actual advantage on any one specific bet to judge how much to bet on that one bet. There are links to articles explaining basic Kelly and calculating advantages. If you are currently a poor money manager with your gambling and don't have a structured approach to sizing your bets, then this might be the best advice you get all season.

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/

I've only made one bet on a sport in my life, and I lost, so I'm the world's worst sports gambler. 0% winning percentage.

I think my plan is to give my picks for a few Big Ten games this year, and see how I do on here. I think I would do fairly well as I do follow college football pretty well. I also would have no clue how to setup an account, and it is supposed to be tough with the new US laws to do it online.

I think I need another trip to vegas.

Let me ask you this question Coast:
If you did gamble on sports, which I am sure you don't online, how would you set it up?

I'm also welcome to private message suggestions.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

The Basic Eight of Clubs Strategy

Here is the simple Eight of Clubs system for betting college football. It works for the NFL too, but it produces very few opportunities.

Every Tuesday, write down all the football lines, sides and totals, for the ensuing weekend on a sheet of paper. Place the list in an envelope and lock it up.

On Saturday, open up the envelope and compare the updated lines to those on your sheet of paper. One hour before kickoff on any game where the side or total has moved up by two or more points, fade the steam and come over the top playing the other side, taking the underdog (or the under) with an extra two plus points in your pocket versus the midweek line.

It’s key here to fade line moves only on favorites and overs, as these tend to be the “square” moves in the market. Suspect sports services and recreational bettors love to fire their money in on favorites and overs and it’s these bets you want to fade, not those of the dialed-in pro syndicates.

First let me give you an example of the latter, or what not to do. Last year the Idaho Vandals were 11-point home underdogs against the Lousiana Tech Bulldogs. Skillful bettors recognized that the Bulldogs were in a very bad spot, as they had just traveled West the game before, playing at Utah State. They pounded the line down from -11 to -8 on Tech. However, this was “smart money” betting an ugly duckling underdog. No recreational bettor was going to bet on Idaho, famous potatoes or not, and there was no reason to think Tech was attractive even at -8. The line moved toward the underdog. Pass.

Contrast this to a typical chalk-eating game, where everyone and his uncle is laying the points. In 2004, Oregon was a -6 favorite versus an inferior UCLA team. Oregon was a huge favorite-play for recreational players and for some big-name tout services. At -6, a bet on Oregon at kickoff would have had some merit. But at the closing line of -9.5, it was just plain foolish. This represented a 3.5-point move toward the favorite and qualified for a bet with the Eight of Clubs system. Oregon lost outright.

To give yourself the best chance to come out a winner with this technique, aggressively shop for even better lines (than the first good one you see) and the lowest vigorish, as well.

That is a very interesting strategy, and it does make some sense. Does it factor in non-conference vs. conference games? Every team has some patsies that will get blown out of the water.

Do you think that is more successful then trying to analyze individual games?

What do you think about the always bet against Notre Dame strategy? I have heard from people that due to the huge fanbase that ND has, that they are always put at a level below where they belong, and there is great value in that fact. Is that total BS or does it have merit?

Also, what bets do you make for college football. Over/Under, Points, Season bets, or all of them.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

It is just one strategy, but the principal of going against the public, getting better line value and playing ugly dogs rather than pretty favorites is a sound approach.

It doesn't matter necessarily whether a line is +4 or +40, the principle of fading the steam is still the same. Frankly though, line moves of 2 points don't happen very often with huge mismatches/spreads because a lot of people just don't lay 30-40 points enough to move a line 2 more points.

Some people play these systems regularly, but not me. I am a fundamental bettor. I must have a case and a strong one for a particular team in a particular matchup. That rules first and foremost for me. I use this system and other systems as good checks that confirm my fundamental analysis hasn't produced a "wrong" side to bet. For example, if I analyzed that Oregon game example above and came up with Oregon as a play, and I missed the opportunity to bet it at -6, I wouldn't have gone the other way and went with the 8 of clubs system and against my analysis. I just wouldn't have played the game. When my individual analysis matches with a sound stat system, then it gives me added confidence and statistical advantage to make a play.

I do believe Notre Dame is often over-rated and there is often value on the other side. That's often not enough, by itself, however to make a play. I do bet against them more than I bet on them. However, in the long run, their record against the spread has been pretty much insignificant. In the last 7 years, ND is 42-37-1 ATS using the closing numbers. If you bet $110 to win $100 against them every week the last 7 years at the closing line in effect at game time, you would be down $920. That's clearly not a profitable long-term strategy in recent years. If you bet $110 to win $100 on them every week, you would be up $130. Considering you would have bet a total of $8,690 on those 79 games, the return for ND bettors of 1.4% over 7 years is pretty weak. All of which makes the case that you have to find individual opportunities on specific teams in specific spots rather than trying to ride long-term beliefs, trends or systems.

I play point spreads, money lines on underdogs that I think will win outright, and over/unders. I also make halftime bets, particularly on games in which I sense a momentum shift, on home favorites that are trailing at halftime, or to get off a game bet that looks to be a loser. Season-long bets on over/under wins are generally more for fun than serious money. That's like buying a stock for a six month period and having no chance to sell..even if at a loss...when things go bad. I also do live betting on WSEX, which is basically a live options exchange with prices fluctuating constantly during a game, with the opportunity to buy and sell at any time during a game.

I will allocate 1,000 to each sport. If I burn through that much, then I need to stop. My unit size is $30. 3% of my bankroll seems to be a good way to go. I am certainly no high roller, or big shooter. I think I would go crazy watching a team blow a game if I had a ton of money on it. I try to stick to sides and totals with football and basketball. Teasers, while fun, are not a good long term strategy in my world. I will occasionally throw in a small parlay in the NFL, if Saturday was a good day. Baseball, I try to never lay more than -150. When chalk loses, it can kill a bankroll. Before last year, I was your typical Joe Public bettor, playing mostly favorites and overs. But I have spent more time capping games, ingesting opinions of those that I believe know their stuff, and looking for value when I can find it (like the Sox at +200 on Thursday). I definitely agree with you Coast, that it is all about money management, and never, ever chase.

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Want to read a book to get you primed for the season? The best two book recommendations I can give to better understand the odds and statistics of sports gambling, of prudent strategies borrowed from financial markets investors -- like hedging, etc., and get solid understanding of the math, science and art of sports betting:

Sharp Sports betting by Stanford Wong
Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao

Both books are available at:
gamblersbook.com