Don't be too hard on them
Just a quick glance at the race and with the turf being listed yielding, I'm on the 3.
The prohibitive favorite (After Market) was scratched out of the race this morning.
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Sat Aug 11, 2007 10:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Arlington Million |
This is one of the more compact fields I've seen in this race in the last few years. Here's a quick analysis of the field and my thoughts on how the race sets up. 1. Jambalaya - This horse could run all day. Loves to stalk the pace and run a longer distance than today's 10 furlongs. Won a grade 1 earlier this year but beat a weak field including a filly who's in the Beverly D today. 2. Sunriver - Was struggling for Pletcher since a nice third in last year's Belmont so they put him on turf and suddenly, he's showing the form he showed in the past. Will be on the front end but gains 10 pounds in the saddle today and hasn't raced against this competition on the lawn. 3. Doctor Dino - This horse comes off two thirds in Group 1 competition overseas. He seems to prefer a bit of a softer going but his recent timeforms seem to say he can compete with this field. Will be rated off the pace. 4. After Market - This is the current hot horse. Has won 3 in a row against stiff competition out west, beating Lava Man in the Whittingham. He'll sit just off the pace today and be a big favorite. 5. The Tin Man - Last year's winner figures here off two good starts earlier this year. He'll want to be on the front. Last year he set a very slow pace in route to his victory. In order for him to win, he'll need to set very slow pace. 6. Pressing - 4 year old comes over from Ireland with three solid races in a row. The race two back he was second and beat Soldier Hollow who was considered a top turfer in the country last year and was third in the Million last year. Will want to be on or near the pace as well. 7. Stream Cat - Horse struggled against much cheaper on the 4th of July over the AP turf course. He steps up in class and has never showed the turn of foot to keep up with the best horses in his division. 8. Danak - This horse looks like he only wants to go a mile. In his latest over a mile and a quarter he was in striking position with a quarter mile to go and never fired. My picks: I think the turf will still be a bit softer than normal from all the rains this week. This will favor some of the international runners. I'm going to go with the 3 Doctor Dino. I think Sunriver, the Tin Man and Pressing will have a go on the front and we'll see a moderate pace for the pressers to run at. 3 - Doctor Dino w/ 8 Danak, 1 Jambalya and 6 Pressing in exactas. I'm leaving the 4 (favorite) out of my picks because if the turf is anything but firm, he's not one to want to hit the board. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Sat Aug 11, 2007 12:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
thanks Vince. I'll be on them. |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Sat Aug 11, 2007 1:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Don't be too hard on them Just a quick glance at the race and with the turf being listed yielding, I'm on the 3.
The prohibitive favorite (After Market) was scratched out of the race this morning. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Sat Aug 11, 2007 4:34 pm ] |
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I'm gonna follow you as well. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Sat Aug 11, 2007 4:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
\I also like 8 Danak and am going to add him to win along with an 8/3 exacta. |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Sat Aug 11, 2007 4:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
For a money jockey, Murtagh gave Doctor Dino a terrible ride. He got him locked in when he had horse, steadied him slightly and then opened a huge hole that Jambalaya could come right through. He cost himself at the very least second if not the win. |
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