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Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 3
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Author:  donspiracy [ Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 3
This weekly wagering contest will reward the best football prognosticator with a $100 gift certificate from a meat/steak company. New guys can still join in any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. You can post your plays any time, but they must be posted before a game you are playing kicks off. You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick.

.........................Last.Week....Season.......%
buryman..................1-0..........1-0..........100
Mitch Cumstein.........3-2-2.......7-4-2........64
Boilermaker Rick.......3-1..........5-3..........63
Nas..........................4-2..........4-3..........57
donspiracy................3-2..........7-6..........54
Irish Boy..................6-7..........14-14-2....50
schmitty1121............2-3-1.......4-4-1........50
Mustang Rob.............2-2..........2-2..........50
reents.....................4-4-2........13-16-3....45
Hawkeye Vince..........2-3..........4-5-1.......44
FarveFan..................2-3..........4-6...........40
good dolphin.............0-1..........5-9...........36
BD...........................1-1..........2-4..........33
Chus.......................3-7-1........10-24-2....29
muman89.................1-3..........2-5...........29
Darren-Tinley Park...0-5-1........3-8-1........27
chuckle nuts.............0-0..........1-3..........25
hootmon..................1-4..........1-7-1........13
newper...................0-2-1........0-2-1........0
Coasttocoast.............0-0..........0-2..........0
Bud Dude.................0-0..........0-1..........0

What a week. Yes it was this bad. Let me know if any of the totals are wrong. Thank you.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:38 pm ]
Post subject: 
I'm feeling pretty good about where I'm sitting; through thirty plays I'm sitting at .500, and I weathered that horrible week two. Let's make this week a profitable one.
Author:  FavreFan [ Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:51 pm ]
Post subject: 
Indy -6 over Houston

I like this Houston team but usually Indy doesnt play two close games in a row. I can easily see this game being over a TD.

Detroit +6 over Eagles

This Philly team looks bad. Mcnabb has played bad two weeks in a row, and while I dont like the Lions a whole lot, I can easily see them winning this game. The +245 money line is a possible wager this weekend.


Buffalo +17 over New England

This line is just too high. I think the Patriots have to cool off eventually, and I think they play a conservative game for the most part and win this one by 10 points.

Carolina -4 over Atlanta

This Falcons team has to be the worst in the league. I dont really like this panthers team too much, but I see them covering the 4.

Tennesee +4.5 over New Orleans

As has been documented on this board, I really like this Titans team. I know NO is home, but I dont understand this line. I think the Titans win this game in a close one, and I will probably be taking the +195 money line also.

Chargers +4.5 over Green Bay
Packers and Chargers Under 43

Two great defenses, Rivers and the offense have looked questionable so far this year. I think the Chargers win this one 17-10, and unfortunately I feel like it could be a long day for my guy if the RB's dont learn how to pick up blitzes over night.
Author:  Brick [ Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:18 am ]
Post subject: 
Purdue -13.5 over Minnesota(sportsbook.com)
I am getting in now as I expect this number to go to at least 14 and possibly 14.5 by game time. Minnesota does not have the defense to match up with Purdue. If the defense plays as well as they have the first three games then this one won't be close. I won't be picking the Purdue game every week but I feel this is a game that Purdue is primed to blow open right at the beginning.

Michigan State -12.5 over Notre Dame
Until Notre Dame shows that they can put up a fight in the game I have to ride the wave. MSU isn't that good, but should be good enough to put up at least 28 on ND. That is all it will take.

LSU -16.5 over South Carolina
LSU is absolutely loaded this year. I don't see a whole lot of matchups I like this week so I am going with a team that I think is strong.
Author:  Chus [ Wed Sep 19, 2007 7:33 am ]
Post subject: 
NFL

Bears -3
Bears at home on national TV against an over-rated Cowboys teams. Dallas has played two awful teams and will not be able to handle the beloved.

Buffalo +17
I don't really like the Bills all that much, but this is way too many points for an NFL game. The Pats strong start has inflated the line a bit. These huge numbers rarely get covered.

San Francisco/Pittsburgh over 38
The Steelers have opened up the offense this year, and have scored 60 in their first two. The Niners offense is better as well, and they should easily get to this low number.

Denver -3
The Broncos haven't looked great in their first two, but Mile High is one of best home field advantages in all of sports. I will take the home team laying a field goal.

San Diego -4.5
This is the game where the sleeping giant wakes up. Things are going to get ugly, early in Cheeseland.

Tennessee/New Orleans over 45
Vince Young's MNF debut is against an awful Saints D. Drew Brees gets back on track in a shootout in primetime.

NCAA

Texas A&M/Miami, Fl under 47 (-120)
The Aggies love to pound the ball, and the Canes still have one of the best defenses loaded with athletes. Low scoring game, maybe 20-17.
Author:  buryman [ Wed Sep 19, 2007 7:45 am ]
Post subject: 
Panthers - Falcons over 36.5
Panthers O looked like it was getting semi on track, Falcons D = Bad. Indoors I like Steve Smith, Dunn and Norwood to be running circles around the defenses. Monten Anderson will be busy. I think both teams could be in the 20s.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Wed Sep 19, 2007 8:50 am ]
Post subject: 
Penn St. -3 vs. Michigan: Maybe I'm missing something, but I didn't see anything with Michigan against Oregon that inspires confidence that they'll be good against good teams. Plus, Henne is still injured; why would I stink that a freshman QB is going to lead the Wolverines to victory against perhaps the best team in the Big-10 when the defense really isn't that good (ND game notwithstanding?) Joe Pa starts his Big-10 schedule off right.

Marshall +23.5 vs. Cincinatti: Marshall's not very good, but they're not that bad either. They hung tough against a pretty good (though overrated) West Virginia team. They should be able to do the same here.

Chicago -3 vs. Dallas: The public is swaying the other way on this one; I'm not so sure. Dallas has proven they can beat up on bottom feeders (both the Giants and the Dolphins will have top-10 picks this year) Let's see what Tony Romo does against a legitimate defense. I don't think it will be pretty. Then again, I am relying on Rex Grossman. God help me.

New Orleans -4 vs. Tennessee: (CRIS) I'd think that this line was going to move, except that the money was coming in on Tennessee at the opening line of -3 and most of the books responded by bumping it to -4.5. This was the best line I could find. Let's see if the comfort of the Superdome gives the Saints some of their mojo.

Miami +3 vs. NYJ: Miami is bad, but they can still get enough pressure off the outside to trip up a newborn starter. Plus, Fireman what's-his-name is out with a knee, so I figure that's worth at least two or three points.

Indy -6.5 vs. Houston: Against my better judgment, but I just don't see how Houston is going to both put up points with Johnson out and stop the Indianapolis passing attack with their horrible non-Dunta Robinson secondary. They may shut down Harrison, or Wayne, but not both.

Philly -5 vs. Detroit: Let's see Detroit handle a decent team. I still am not buying into the Lions bandwagon.

ADDED Monday afternoon:

TENN/NO Over 46
TENN Over 20.5
NO over 25

I smell shootout.
Author:  Chus [ Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:20 am ]
Post subject: 
There is something very fishy about that Penn St. line. It looks like the (Boise St -3 Washington), where everyone jumped on Boise, and got killed.
Author:  Brick [ Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:36 am ]
Post subject: 
Chus wrote:
There is something very fishy about that Penn St. line. It looks like the (Boise St -3 Washington), where everyone jumped on Boise, and got killed.


I agree with that. I learned my lesson with the Louisville game. I have a feeling that there may be some people who haven't jumped on the Morelli bandwagon. I'm one of them.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:22 am ]
Post subject: 
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Chus wrote:
There is something very fishy about that Penn St. line. It looks like the (Boise St -3 Washington), where everyone jumped on Boise, and got killed.


I agree with that. I learned my lesson with the Louisville game. I have a feeling that there may be some people who haven't jumped on the Morelli bandwagon. I'm one of them.


Personally I think scUM gained alot of confidence in the ND game and will give PSU a beating. PSU has played absolutely no one and actually struggled a bit with Buffalo last week....looking ahead? maybe.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:02 am ]
Post subject: 
I don't care. Sometimes you can outsmart yourself with these picks. Penn State struggled, that is, didn't immediately kill, Buffalo. Michigan was stomped by Oregon, and that was with Chad Henne. If nothing else, I expect that line to move in the next few days. If it gets up above four, I'd consider hedging. Right now, I think everyone forgets just how bad Michigan looked.
Author:  Brick [ Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:57 pm ]
Post subject: 
Michigan +3 vs. Penn State
Michigan runs behind Mike Hart and finds a way to pull it out.

Indiana +3 vs. Illinois
I don't really like this game but I can't find anything else. I'll be happy to lose this one but I think the Hoosiers have a strong enough offense to win.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:48 pm ]
Post subject: 
Thursday night football:

Texas A&M -1.5 @ The U
A&M has looked good so far this year winning handily in 3 games at home. The U got whipped by a good team and won handily against two bad teams. A&M was able to take out their starters early last week to get some rest while Miami had to go the distance with FIU. Take the Aggies giving the points.

Saturday College

East Carolina @ West Virginia -24.5
East Carolina let me down last week so for that they get to pummelled by the best offense in the country. West Virginia found themselves in a tussle with Maryland early on but found their rhythm to bust off 24 unanswered.

Penn State @ Michigan UNDER 46.5
I can't hop on Penn State even though I think they are the play but this number is inflated because of PSU's output thus far this year. They haven't played anyone thus far and should be scoring 40 a game. As for Michigan, they woke up last week against a piss poor ND team. I expect this to be in the 23-21 range.

Kentucky @ Arkansas -7
Kentucky comes off the biggest win in the history of the program, knocking off an artifical top 10 team in Louisville. They go on the road to Arkansas who is licking the wounds off a stinging loss to Alabama. This is Kentucky first road game of the year and not sure I'd want to be travelling to the Razorbacks.

Duke @ Navy -14
Wish I bought this at the beginning of the week when it was 10, but Duke, this isn't Northwestern. Welcome back to reality.

Wyoming -4 @ Ohio

Ohio might be the pick of the Mac this year, but they haven't shown much thus far with two subpar wins against UL-Lafayette and a D3 team. Wyoming comes off a tough loss to Boise State but showed dominance early in the season against an improving Virgina team. Wyoming should be able to move the ball against the Bobcats and score a comfortable victory.

Memphis @ Central Florida -7 AND Under 58
Central Florida is the real deal, giving Texas everything they wanted and then some. This game could be a battle early on but I expect the big game experience of UCF to help them win this game.

Troy -9 @ UL Lafayette
Going to stick with Troy. They played really well against OK State and now returns to conference after playing 3 in the BCS Conferences. UL Lafayette is 0-3 with losses to a D1-AA, Ohio and South Carolina.[/b]

4-5 on the week. Should have stuck with what I knew....Troy, scUM, UCF, and WV and stayed away from some of the other things.
Author:  donspiracy [ Thu Sep 20, 2007 5:19 pm ]
Post subject: 
Was looking at Tex A&M @ Miami U also.

That's a heck of number for the Aggies, pinnaclesports.com has Miami as the 2 point favorite at home.
Author:  good dolphin [ Thu Sep 20, 2007 5:42 pm ]
Post subject: 
TAM-UM OVER 46

Not to be contrarian on Chus but I see the U being able to move it on TAM and vice versa.

Titans +4.5 at Saints

The Saints really need this game...and the public knows that the Saints really need this game...which makes me believe that the Titans will cover.
Author:  Chus [ Thu Sep 20, 2007 10:14 pm ]
Post subject: 
That is an awful way to lose an under. A 50 yard prayer with 5 seconds left.

How about the no-call on the forward lateral when A&M ran an option? Or the no-call on the false start? Just because the score is 34-10, the rules should still exist.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Thu Sep 20, 2007 10:29 pm ]
Post subject: 
That was awful, but pretty funny to the innocent (i.e., nonbetting) bystander. I saw only the final 30 seconds of that game, literally the TD throw and the onside kick and nothing else. I had remembered that the O/U was 46 or 47, and that there were going to be a slew of very angry/happy people tonight after a garbage TD. Isn't gambling grand?
Author:  good dolphin [ Fri Sep 21, 2007 6:43 am ]
Post subject: 
Chus wrote:
That is an awful way to lose an under. A 50 yard prayer with 5 seconds left.

.


Sour grapes. It was only about 40 yards. Those are the moments when you just look up and say "Thank you Jeebus", because there was absolutely no reason to get that cover. If the Canes take the running into the kicker penalty 2 minutes before, they probably take a knee and it ends up at 41. Again, thank you jeebus.
Author:  muman89 [ Fri Sep 21, 2007 10:04 am ]
Post subject: 
Lines from Sportsbook

Detroit +6.5 @ Philly

Lions go on the road and beat a Philly team trying to figure things out. Surprising Lions 3-0 team.

Texans +6 vs Indy

Divisional dogs at home getting close to a touchdown. Indy's last loss was at Houston.

Packers +5 vs San Diego

I think this will be a 3 point game either way. Chargers second trip across country in a week.

NCAA

LSU -18 vs South Carolina

LSU could be the best team in the country. If VA Tech can't hang with them in the Bayou, the Gamecocks won't either.

Mich St. -11 @ Notre Dame

Until further notice, pound against the Irish each week.

Arkansas -6.5 vs Kentucky

Arkansas had a tough loss at Bama, Kentucky a big win over Louisville. Hangover for Kentucky, Arkansas looking for the bounce back.

Wisconsin -7.5 vs Iowa

Saturday night in Madison, and Iowa is bad. Not a good combo for the Hawkeyes.
Author:  reents [ Fri Sep 21, 2007 8:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Saturday
Miami OH +12.5 vs Colorado- I've seen Colorado play a couple of times, don't look that good, and Miami OH can put up the offense, to keep this a close game.

Washington +5.5 vs UCLA- I thought Washington was a good team before the Ohio State game, got beat, but I think up for a rebound and now the UCLA starting quarterback is out and I'm a big fan of Jake Lockler.

Georgia Tech-3.5 vs Virginia- I like the Yellow Jackets here to bounce back and wear down the Cavaliers with the run and defense.

One More College
Illinois and Indiana over 61- The score of last year's game was 34-32 and both teams have scored over 30 in 5 of the 6 games this season, I know Illinois has a good defense, but will allow points, and IU's D allows about 20 points or more.
Author:  Chus [ Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:02 pm ]
Post subject: 
Oklahoma/Tulsa over 32 (2nd half)

The Sooners are good for at least three more TD's.
Author:  schmitty1121 [ Sat Sep 22, 2007 12:27 pm ]
Post subject: 
Penn St -2.5
Penn St. will end their 8 game losing streak to Michigan. Michigan will count on Hart to carry the load again this week, but he will wear down and Penn St. wins by 7.

Wisconsin -7.5
Wisconsin with a primetime night game, against a rebuilding Iowa team. All I can say is mismatch. Give the points and it should be over by the end of the 3rd.
Author:  donspiracy [ Sat Sep 22, 2007 12:50 pm ]
Post subject: 
Week 4 Aft-ernoon Delight

S. Carolina @ LSU -17 1/2

The 'ol ball coach will go thru 5 or 6 visors coping with LSU. Flynn will wear out USC secondary.

USC 21 LSU 40

Mich St. @ ND +10

Irish still will not win. I won't tell the 9 seniors the team is rebuiling. It's a moral victory to cover. Bring on the service schools.

Spartans 20 Irish 11

Northwestern @ THE Luckeyes -23 1/2

Cue the laugh track, boom goes the dynamite, etc. OSU WR Robiske and Hartline with RB Wells get lots of work.

NW 9 OSU 44

Penn State -2 @ Michigan

Morelli play action gives late FG range. It will be a Pier 6 brawl! A slobberknocker of a hootnanny...

PSU 16 Mich. 13

Texas Tech @ OK St. +6

Cowboys will fumble less than four times and still lose. TT gets big lead and lack the fire and passion to wake up in the second half.

TT 39 OSU 34
Author:  Mustang Rob [ Sat Sep 22, 2007 8:22 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Greek 9/22

Carolina - 3.5
Over 37 This one comes down to Steve Smith having a huge game against the Falcons secondary. 2 Td's 150+yds. I'm playing the over on a hunch of a fairly high scoring game as neither defense has been very good.
Author:  reents [ Sun Sep 23, 2007 12:12 am ]
Post subject:  Sunday
Lions +5.5 vs Eagles- Could be a bad pick with some people thinking the Lions will win, but get creamed, but I like what I'm seeing from the Lions and Westbrook maybe hurt and we don't know how healthy McNabb is.

Jets -3 vs Dolphins- The Dolphins look bad and where there strong is defense and now Thomas is out, I see Thomas Jones getting going on the ground, and the Jets defense holds the Dolphins offense to a minimal amount of points, probably a 17-7 or 20-3 game.

Panthers -3.5 vs Falcons- The Falcons look bad and this is a game where the Panthers will mess around a little and score a late touchdwon to win it, hopefully to win by 4.

Cowboys +3 vs Bears- I think the way Romo is leading the offense he will move the ball on the Bears and the Cowboys D will stop the Bears when they need too and get this one.


Monday Night

Titans +4 vs Saints- I know the Saints need this game, but all Vince Young does is win games or keep his games close and with the Titans running game, they should be able to control clock and keep the Saints offense off the field to if not win, only lose by a field goal.
Author:  M_C [ Sun Sep 23, 2007 11:47 am ]
Post subject: 
thegreek @ 11:12am sunday

Buffalo +16.5 Buffalo has historically "sort of" played NE competitively, just too many points

KC -3, do the vikings have a wide receiver? do they have a qb? the answer to both of those is no

AZ+7 I think they will win outright, AZ is good, they are gaining confidence on offense and BAL is way overrated

NYJ-3, Dolphins are terrible, regardless of who starts Jets defense wins this game outright

Dallas +3.5, was going to stay away from this until it went 3.5, this game is decided by a field goal one way or the other

Houston +6.5, yep Houston is the real deal, they win this outright.

Philly -5, they will bounce back big from an over hyped detroit team, + the guy I am playing in fantasy as d mcnabb as his qb
Author:  schmitty1121 [ Sun Sep 23, 2007 11:57 am ]
Post subject: 
Chiefs -3
Bad Minnesota team, Larry Johnson gets going against a good run defense.

Steelers -9.5
Bad Niner offense gets shut down, Willie Parker wears down the defense and has a big 2nd half.

Rams +3.5
Stephen Jackson gets going finally, Holt has a big day.
Author:  Darren - Tinley Park [ Mon Sep 24, 2007 1:26 pm ]
Post subject: 
I couldn't get to the computer to put in any college or Sunday game picks, so I'll double up on tonight's game. From thegreek.com:

Saints -4.5 over the Titans
New Oleans really needs this game and will finally be in front of the home crowd. The real Saints offense shows up tonight.

Saints / Titans over 45.5
Although I said the real Saints offense will show up tonight, unfortunately for them, so will their defense. Titans will score enough points to put this one into the upper 40's.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:32 pm ]
Post subject: 
If I miss the over because Rob Bironas missed a chip shot, I will not be happy.
Author:  buryman [ Tue Sep 25, 2007 6:59 am ]
Post subject: 
Irish Boy wrote:
If I miss the over because Rob Bironas missed a chip shot, I will not be happy.


Sorry Irish Boy, i put the hex on him because I had the under at 45.5 parlayed with Titans plus 4.5. Pay day!
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