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YANKEES-INDIANS
There is no doubt the Yankees have much more offense than the Indians, but the Indians chances lie in a 5 game series where the Yanks will have to face CC Sabathia twice and Fausto Carmona once. While the Yanks could sweep this series in three with their powerful offense, if Cleveland can hang tough at home in Games 1 and 2, there is tremendous value with the Tribe. When you get past the teams' offenses, the Indians have a sizable advantage in starting pitching and maybe even in the bullpen. Their front two starters are a tremendous strength for the Tribe, with CC Sabathia, the probable AL Cy Young Award winner, followed by Fausto Carmona and this line is ridiculous considering the starting pitching matchups, Cleveland's home field advantage and the Yanks' horrible middle relief excluding Chamberlain.
HITTING
The Yankees' primary strength is their offense, the best in the majors over the season's second half. Their lineup is deep, largely patient, with power from almost every spot, and they're capable of waiting almost any starting pitcher out. Their cleanup hitter, ARod, was the best hitter in baseball this year. He has excellent plate discipline and murders fastballs left over the plate, especially in the lower half of the zone. His bat is quick enough that he can adjust late and take balls the other way, and the only time you'll see him look bad at the plate is when he gets too focused on getting a fastball to drive.
Their unsung hero this year is Bobby Abreu, who doesn't seem to fit the profile of the typical slugging corner outfielder, but who takes a ton of pitches -- ranking third in the majors in pitches seen per plate appearance -- and who keeps his head on the ball as well as any hitter in the league. They've also received tremendous contributions from Jorge Posada -- leading the team in OBP and squaring up every pitch, fastballs and off-speed pitches alike -- and from the surprisingly selective Cano. The left-handed hitting Cano was flailing at stuff out of the zone, especially breaking stuff well below the strike zone, through the season's first two and a half months, but worked on his pitch selection and on keeping his swing under control, resulting in a .338/.392/.560 line from July 1 on. There is certainly no minimizing Derek Jeter's value, particularly in the post season and he comes off another Jeter-like season at .322 with 12 HR's and 73 RBI's. Damon, Matsui and Giambi are all dangerous but all coming off seasons that did not meet expectations.
Cleveland actually enters the postseason with the fewest runs scored of any AL playoff team. Their lineup as currently assembled is deep in power with five hitters at 20 or more homers, and Franklyn Gutierrez at 13 in under a half-season's worth of at-bats. Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore are particularly dangerous, as both are very patient hitters with plus power; Hafner's power output was down this year, in part due to an assortment of aches and pains, but the raw power is still there. Ryan Garko isn't far behind, although he has a long swing and will chase hard stuff out of the zone, especially up high or down and in. Switch hitting Victor Martinez is possibly the top catcher in baseball coming off a .301 season with 25 HR's and 114 RBI's. Cleveland's hitters are also disciplined; they're one of the two best teams in baseball (along with Boston) at working the count, seeing just under four pitchers per plate appearance, running up opposing pitchers' workloads and giving them a chance to hit against weaker middle relievers.
STARTING PITCHING
YANKEES
Chien-Ming Wang - Wang has replaced his split-change with an average slider that flashes plus; he gets a lot of awkward swings from right-handers and will back-foot it to a left-handed hitter. His bread and butter remains his 91-93 mph sinker, generating ground ball after ground ball and hoping the Yankees' infield is up to the task. His biggest risk is that he occasionally will lose his feel for the sinker for a few pitches, and his fastball is very hittable when it flattens out. Wang was 19-7 this season with a 3.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 104:59 K:BB ratio, however, he struggled on the road this season with a 4.91 ERA and .300 average allowed. As set, he would throw two road games if this series goes 5 games.
Andy Pettitte has been a revelation for the Yankees, who couldn't have realistically expected a season this good from him, given his age and up-and-down performance with Houston over the past three years. Pettitte's fastball, cutter and slider are all essentially one pitch; he just varies the shape and velocity by altering his grip (or the degree to which he "cuts" the pitch). He'll run it up to 92 mph with just a slight cut, will throw a slider at 80-82 mph with more of a two-plane break that runs hard down and in to right-handed hitters, and will throw various cutters in between those two. He also has a solid-average curveball with a tight 11-to-5 rotation to keep hitters honest. He as 15-9 this season with a 4.05 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. However, he wasn't sharp at season's end. In his last 6 starts, he threw 35 1/3 innings and allowed 47 hits, 23 earned runs and had a 21:10 K:BB ratio and 5.86 ERA.
Roger Clemens - Unfortunately for the Yankees, the back end of their pitching staff is weak. Their third and fourth starters are likely to be Clemens and Mussina. Clemens has been plagued by minor injuries, first to his elbow (requiring a pair of cortisone shots) and then to his hamstring, while Mussina was completely ineffective until his last few starts in September. Clemens has not pitched since September 16th and appeared only twice in September. At 45 years of age, not much can be expected of Clemens and he certainly won't go deep into a game, which means the Yanks bullpen will be challenged. Overall Clemens was 6-6 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.
Mike Mussina - You just don't know what you are going to get with Mike Mussina. Mussina was just 11-10 this season with a 5.15 ERA, .300 average allowed and 1.47 WHIP. In late August he was yanked from the rotation after 3 consecutive starts where he lasted just 9 2/3 innings and allowed 23 hits and 15 runs with a 2:3 K:BB ratio. Then out of necessity he rejoined the rotation and bounced back with two good starts where he tossed 12 1/3 innings and allowed just 8 hits, no runs and had a 7:4 K:BB ratio. Then in his final two starts, he threw 12 innings and allowed 18 hits and 9 runs with a 7:2 K:BB ratio. While there is a good chance Mussina is just a shell of his old self, one thing seems certain; he won't go deep into games and the ugly pen will appear early.
CLEVELAND
CC Sabathia - Sabathia is a classic power left-hander, with a 92-95 mph fastball and a toxic 80-82 mph curveball with a very sharp two-plane break. He's a rarity in today's game in that he uses the high fastball as an out pitch, working up and away to right-handed batters when he gets ahead and getting a lot of swings and misses. With those two pitches and an outstanding changeup, he's very tough to beat when he's getting ahead in the count -- and he's not easy to beat any other time, either. Sabathia was 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and outstanding 209:37 K:BB ratio. In his last 14 starts, he registered 13 quality starts. In the last two months of the season, he started 11 games and tossed 80 innings, allowing 69 hits 22 runs, just 3 HR's and had a 64:16 K:BB ratio and 2.48 ERA. Sabathia will get 2 home starts if this series goes 5 games, which can be tough on the Yanks with their abundance of left hand hitters. Giambi, Matsui, Damon and Cano all show weakness against lefties with good breaking balls, while Cabrera can bat right-handed but will chase changeups away all day long.
Fausto Carmona - Carmona's emergence this year was one of the season's biggest surprises (to most other than members of the Fausto Carmona Fan Club), especially given his struggles in relief last year for Cleveland. He works primarily off of a 93-95 mph heavy sinker, leading all AL starters with a 77-percent groundball percentage, but also gets swings and misses on his fastball, complementing it with a hard mid-80s slider. Carmona was 19-8 this seasons with a 3.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 137:61 K:BB ratio. In his last 5 starts he threw 35 1/3 innings and allowed 26 hits, 7 earned runs and had a 27:9 K:BB ratio and 1.78 ERA.
Paul Byrd - Byrd is likely third starter in the playoffs. Byrd had a solid season at 15-8 and a 4.59 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Byrd has marginal stuff and lacks a real out pitch, but survives by throwing strike after strike (just 25 unintentional walks this year in over 180 innings); his susceptibility to contact makes him a shaky bet against the better offenses he'll face in the postseason, meaning that winning games behind the big two is extremely important for Cleveland. Byrd struggled late in the season. In his last 5 starts, he lasted 29 innings and allowed 44 hits, 22 earned runs and had a 6:4 K:BB ratio and 6.83 ERA.
Jake Westbrook - Westbrook was actually in decent form the last 2 months of the season. In his last 9 starts, he threw 58 2/3 innings and allowed 63 hits and 21 earned runs with a 42:20 K:BB ratio. Overall, Westbrook was just 6-9 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, but was much more effective post all-star break. Both Byrd and Westbrook have been hit hard by the Yanks, and while both are capable of keeping the Tribe in games, they cannot be relied upon with confidence.
BULLPENS
YANKEES
The Yankees' postseason bullpen is going to remind a lot of people of their 1996 pen, when Mariano Rivera came in for the seventh and eight innings, with John Wetteland closing it out in the ninth. This year, rookie Joba Chamberlain takes the setup role, working with a 94-98 mph fastball and a venomous slider that comes in around 83-85 mph with plus tilt and a very late break. He also throws an inconsistent curveball that flashes plus, and has a fringe-average changeup, but going one time through the order he'll work mostly by getting ahead with his fastball and finishing hitters off with sliders down or the occasional 98 mph heater up. Chamberlain has been magical at the MLB level. In 24 innings, he has a 0.38 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 34:6 K:BB ratio. Rivera fills the 9th inning role, throwing cutter after cutter and trying to hit the corners, especially to lefties against whom he'll throw cutters in on the hands. This alignment actually puts the Yanks' better reliever in for more of the crucial outs in the seventh and eighth innings, and should help avoid situations where Rivera has to come in to get more than three outs. Rivera did not have as dominant a season as he has in the past but was still solid. IN 71 1/3 innings, he had a 3.15 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 74:12 K:BB ratio. Outside of Chamberlain and Rivera, their bullpen is scary. Their next-best reliever is Edwin Ramirez (11.17 ERA in September), who has a "Bugs Bunny" changeup but has to use it very heavily due to his lack of a breaking ball and straight, average fastball. Behind him, it's Luis Vizcaino (10.13 ERA in September), Ron Villone (ERA in August - September) and Brian Bruney (21.60 ERA in September), all of whom shown erratic control, and Kyle Farnsworth (6.75 ERA in September), with explosive stuff and a pea brain.
CLEVELAND
Cleveland also boasts the strongest middle relief corps of any playoff team. While their closer, Joe Borowski, is ordinary at best, the men who get the ball from the starter to Borowski are outstanding, led by the two Rafaels, Betancourt and Perez. Betancourt -- one of the first players suspended for using a performance-enhancing drug -- has outstanding control and a lot of deception in his delivery, but also has a solid-average fastball at 90-93 mph that he commands well. He occasionally mixes in a slider, but really works off the heater, moving it around the zone and getting swings and misses, even in the upper half of the zone. Perez didn't even come up to the majors for good until May 29, but he's become their primary lefty out of the pen. He shuts down lefties with an average fastball with late life and good run, and a plus slider at 84-85 mph with a big, sharp break down and away from lefties. Because he can also throw it at a right-handed hitter's back foot and he commands his fastball, he's effective against righties and doesn't fall into the specialist bin. Joining those two is Jensen Lewis, a recent callup who works very quickly with average stuff but who has excellent command and control and a somewhat herky-jerk delivery that makes it hard to pick the ball up. Lewis had a 0.69 ERA in September in 13 1/3 innings. All three are strike-throwers and all three go after hitters aggressively. In addition, Aaron Fultz is an effective lefty in the pen with a 2.92 ERA and 1.32 WHIP and I wouldn't be surprised to see Aaron Laffey on the post-season roster. Laffey started a bunch of games in late season and in his last two starts tossed 10 2.3 innings and allowed just 8 hits and 2 earned runs. An extra lefty against the Yankees can only help. The aforementioned Borowski is the Indians' Achilles' heel. Borowski has 41 saves, but he also has a 5.23 ERA, the highest of any major league pitcher with more than three saves this year. He works with an 88-89 mph fastball with little movement and a soft-breaking slider, neither of which is going to miss many bats when he's facing the best lineups in the league. He's also homer-prone, due to his fringe-average stuff and tendency to work up in the zone. Manager Eric Wedge would do well to forget about the save rule in October and focus on getting the right guy in the game to get the next few batters out, and in some ninth-inning situations, that won't be Borowski.
DEFENSE
The Yanks are a bit of a shaky defensive club, which isn't ideal considering the fact that all four of their starting pitchers tend to allow a lot of balls in play. They're below-average defensively at shortstop and in left field as well as at first base when Giambi plays there; Cabrera has a plus arm in center but his jumps tend to be a step late; and despite his athletic ability, Rodriguez hasn't played well at third base. They do have a defensive whiz in Alberto Gonzalez, a shortstop who can play third or second, but they're not going to pull any of their starting infielders to play him (if he's even on the postseason roster). Cleveland's biggest weakness is its defense. Their typical lineup has below-average defenders at shortstop, both infield corners and behind the plate. Their best defender, Adrubal Cabrera, is playing out of position at second base, and their best defensive center fielder, Franklin Gutierrez, mostly plays right. Peralta is a particular problem at shortstop, as he has limited range and doesn't have the soft hands a good shortstop needs. He also plays with a decided lack of urgency, which might work on a daily basis but often leads to mistakes, especially in tight spots. Lofton has good range in left, but has one of the weakest outfield arms in the big leagues. Since Cleveland only features one starter who racks up large strikeout totals, converting balls in play into outs is critical for their other starters to hold good opposing offenses down, and they're not well-equipped to do that.
OVERALL
While the Yanks have a much more explosive offense and slightly better defense, pitching favors the Tribe, With CC and Carmona potentially pitching 3 of the 5 games, the Yanks should be favorites of 125 at best for the series. The Yanks could struggle against left handed pitching and in addition to CC, the Tribe will use several solid lefties out of the pen. Wang struggled on the road this year and he is scheduled to pitch twice in this series, both on the road. Pettitte looked a bit tired at season's end and Clemens and Mussina are both huge question marks; and both seemingly will not go deep into games leading to the Yanks ugly middle relief early. Outside of Chamberlain, the Yanks' middle relief is atrocious and there's a good chance the Yanks middle relief could be called upon for many innings in the series. The price makes no sense on this series and there is tremendous value in the Tribe.
CLEVELAND +170 (3 UNITS)
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