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Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 6
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Author:  donspiracy [ Tue Oct 09, 2007 11:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 6
This weekly wagering contest will reward the best football prognosticator with a $100 gift certificate from a meat/steak company. New guys can still join in any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. You can post your plays any time, but they must be posted before a game you are playing kicks off. You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick. Minimum 50 picks to qualify by the end of the contest.

..........................Last Week.....Season.........%
buryman....................0-0............3-1..........75
Mitch Cumstein...........4-2..........18-9-4.......67
Nas...........................4-3..........15-11-1......58
good dolphin..............1-1..........15-14.........52
newper......................2-1-1........3-3-2........50
Irish Boy....................9-7..........32-33-4.....49
Chus........................26-17-1.....57-65-4......47
Mustang Rob..............2-3-1........8-9-2.........47
schmitty1211.............1-2...........8-10-1........44
a retard.....................2-2-1........4-5-1.........44
Farve Fan..................5-6..........18-24-1.......43
Boilermaker Rick........2-3..........10-14..........42
Hawkeye Vince...........1-3-1........9-13-2.......41
reents.......................4-10.........23-34-4......40
donspiracy.................1-1..........11-17.........39
Gloopan Kuratz...........1-5..........4-7............36
BD.............................0-0..........2-4............33
Darren-Tinley Park......2-4..........7-17-1.......29
muman89...................1-4..........5-13-1.......28
hootmon.....................1-4..........5-13-1.......28
Chuckle Nuts...............0-0..........2-7...........22
Coasttocoast................0-0..........0-2...........0
Bud Dude....................0-0..........0-1............0


Please let me know if any of the totals are incorrect.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:02 am ]
Post subject: 
I'm first of people over 50 games. Still, I'm under 50% I have almost no confidence in any of the lines this week, I have a feeling I'm not going to be budging much.
Author:  FavreFan [ Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:07 am ]
Post subject: 
Bengals -3 over Kansas City

Bengals are better than they have played so far, and I dont see them going to 1-4, especially against the Chiefs.

Vikings +5.5 over Bears

Im 0-5 picking against the Bears this season, and Tarvaris scares me, but this team is not almost a TD better than the Vikings.

Rams +9.5 over Ravens

The Ravens are not 10 points better than any team in the NFL, which just barely includes the Rams.

Titans +3 over Tampa Bay

The Titans are winning 10 games at least this year. I know Im sounding more repetitive than Lovie but its true. Vince is my quarterback.

Washington +3 over Green Bay

Im not sure why, but I dont like this game. Im not sure if GB can pull it out or not, and either way it will be a nail biter IMO.

New England -5 over Dallas

In addition to all their other accomplishments, Im prepared for NE to go 19-0 ATS this year.

Raiders +10 over San Diego

Dumbest line of the week by far. Raiders either win or lose by less than 3.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Wed Oct 10, 2007 11:09 am ]
Post subject: 
Hawaii/San Jose State under 69 (bodog) SJS games rarely reach the over.

Illinois -3.5 vs. Iowa (5Dimes) This line settled back down after getting as high as five (it still is some places.) I'll jump on it now that it has lowered once again.

Wisconsin +7 vs. Penn State There's some weird stuff going on at Penn State. Also, I'm looking for Wisconsin to rebound.

NYJ +3.5 vs. Philly Home dog with a line at 3.5; what would make anyone think that Philly should cover this?

Arizona -4 vs. Carolina I'm not a big believer in the David Carr era. I don't know what to think about the Kurt Warner era just yet, but it could potentially be quite good. At home, this seems like a weak line, but the betting public isn't rushing the number, so mabybe they'e just wary after Arizona failed to cover against St. Louis. They shouldn't be.

Kentucky +10 vs. LSU I don't think I'm ready to give any college football team -10 on the road against a top 20 team, especially after the last couple of weeks. Kentucky can at least keep this one close, and LSU may be in for a bit of a letdown after the emotional win vs. Florida.

St. Louis +10 vs. Baltimore (5dimes) Who the hell is Baltimore to spot 10 points to anyone in the NFL? St. Louis's offense is better under a healthy Ferrotte than an injured Bulger.

Oakland +10.5 vs. San Diego (5dimes) Too many points.

Cincy/KC OVER 42 (bodog) Larry Johnson is only about 3 weeks away from blowing out both knees, but Cincinatti is starting the Asian kid from Little Giants at linebacker. You figure that Johnson picks up some points on the ground this week (he's on pace to get less that 1,000 yards this year- scary.) Meanwhile, Cincy is off the bye and a tumultuous loss vs. NE, and you figure they'll come out blazing. I actually like KC here, especially if this line moves to 3.5, but the over seems safe and I'd like to lock it in at 42 (several books have it listed at 42.5.) I'll probably be taking the KC over once team props come out later this week, assuming their over is 17.5 or so, which I expect it will be.

KC +3 vs. Cincinatti If LJ doesn't run crazy against a team with no linebackers and Bryan Robinson, I don't know that he gets to 1000 yards this season. Waiting for Cincinatti to start winning again is like waiting for Godot. I had hoped that some book would raise this to 3.5, but that's not going to happen, and I'm going to hop on this while I still have the opportunity.

Atlanta + 3.5 vs. NYG I don't see this one moving to four, so I'll get it now (I may be wrong- wouldn't be the first time.) I almost always play home dogs on MNF, and a line of 3.5 is too good to pass up. I still don't believe in the New York Football Giants.

Purdue + 6 vs. Michigan (bodog) Michigan has struggled with every spread offense they have faced this year, including Appalachian State, Northwestern, and Eastern Michigan. Purdue is light years better than any of those three schools, and I think that Purdue's loss to OSU more a reflection of OSU's dominance than Purdue's nimcompoopery. I'm looking forward to playing Purdue on the moneyline as well, as I think they pull this one out at the big house, but I take the points here.

Missouri +12.5 vs. Oklahoma (CRIS) Missouri winning at Oklahoma is going to be the story of the college football universe next week. I do not believe in the Sooners, and that Missouri team is scary impressive.

Cincinatti -10 vs. Louisville A lot of points, and Louisville can put up garbage points should it get out of hand, but I trust that Cincy will ice this one early. That Louisville defense is just atrocious, and the offense hasn't really looked right either. Here's a fun fact- Cincy is the only undefeated team in college football ATS. Play it again, Sam!

Jacksonville +6.5 vs. Houston Jacksonville is the 3rd best team in the AFC. It sucks that Houston lost their best player on offense, but those are the breaks, and they are going to spin their wheels until they get Johnson back.
Author:  good dolphin [ Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:14 pm ]
Post subject: 
Here's an early one for you Irish:

Navy +4.5 at Pitt

Wanne coaches Pitt. That is reason enough for a fade.

Wake Forest +6 against Florida State

It's always an attraction to go against a ranked team on the road on a nationally televised/weeknight game. Watch for the upset here. At the very least I expect Wake's D to be good enough to keep this close. Please go up to 7.

2-0 so far but it gets a little more difficult from here:

Cincinnatti -10 against Louisville

the public seems to be in denial over what both of these teams have shown this year. Cincinnatti has had only 1 win in which they did not win by 10 or more. Louisville has shown nothing on either side of the ball.

Central Michigan -13.5 against Army

This one really jumps out at me. Play of the week.

Arkansas -3 against Auburn

The Razorbacks are flying under the radar a little this year.

UCF +11.5 at USF

The upset special of the week

Chiefs +3 against Bengals

Bengals have sucked for the better part of 1.5 years yet no one seems to notice. They have no LBs, they are down to rookies at CB and they are on the road.

Rams +9.5 at Ravens

Have any of you seen a reason for the Ravens to be giving 9.5 to anyone? Bad, bad offenses should not be laying almost double digits

Redskins +3 at Packers

Fuck you FarveFan

Raiders +9.5 at Chargers

This is a big rivalry game...and if you didn't notice, the raiders have been the superior team this year. This should be a 3 point game.

Falcons +3.5 against Giants

Pound this one like college co eds rear end. This is the NFL play of the week.
Author:  M_C [ Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:54 pm ]
Post subject: 
Quote:
I'm coming for you Mitch


HaHa, It's been a good year so far, the wallet is nice and heavy. Still fuming over the end of the Pats - Cleveland game I had two dimes on. If that Cleveland WR didn't choke his chicken I'd be up HUGE on the season. Not a fun last 2 mins to watch

Quote:
Vikings +5.5 over Bears

Im 0-5 picking against the Bears this season, and Tarvaris scares me, but this team is not almost a TD better than the Vikings


well you'll now officially be 0-6.
Author:  Chus [ Wed Oct 10, 2007 5:11 pm ]
Post subject: 
Michigan -5.5
The Wolverines are back on track after their dismal start. Mike Hart continues his run at the Heisman, by running all over Purdue.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Wed Oct 10, 2007 5:38 pm ]
Post subject: 
Kentucky +10 vs. LSU
Author:  Chus [ Wed Oct 10, 2007 6:34 pm ]
Post subject: 
Navy/Pitt over 53.5
Navy/Pitt over 26.5 (1st half)
Author:  a retard [ Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:11 pm ]
Post subject: 
From Sportsbook

Wisconsin +7 over Penn State
Badgers rebound while Paterno deals with distractions

Minnesota +5.5 over Chicago
I think the Bears win but it's closer than this

Arizona -4.5 over Carolina
Arizona is who I think they are (improving) while Carolina also is who I think they are (bad)

Dallas +5.5 over NE
Romo rebounds from his bad outing

Oakland +9.5 over San Diego
Big spread in divisional game might mean a trap (maybe for me!)
Author:  Irish Boy [ Thu Oct 11, 2007 10:44 pm ]
Post subject: 
St. Louis +10 vs. Baltimore (5dimes) Who the hell is Baltimore to give up 10 points to anyone in the NFL? St. Louis's offense is better under a healthy Ferrotte than an injured Bulger.

Oakland +10.5 vs. San Diego (5dimes) Too many points.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:06 pm ]
Post subject: 
Cincy/KC OVER 42 (bodog) Larry Johnson is only about 3 weeks away from blowing out both knees, but Cincinatti is starting the Asian kid from Little Giants at linebacker. You figure that Johnson picks up some points on the ground this week (he's on pace to get less that 1,000 yards this year- scary.) Meanwhile, Cincy is off the bye and a tumultuous loss vs. NE, and you figure they'll come out blazing. I actually like KC here, especially if this line moves to 3.5, but the over seems safe and I'd like to lock it in at 42 (several books have it listed at 42.5.) I'll probably be taking the KC over once team props come out later this week, assuming their over is 17.5 or so, which I expect it will be.

Atlanta + 3.5 vs. NYG I don't see this one moving to four, so I'll get it now (I may be wrong- wouldn't be the first time.) I almost always play home dogs on MNF, and a line of 3.5 is too good to pass up. I still don't believe in the New York Football Giants.

Purdue + 6 vs. Michigan (bodog) Michigan has struggled with every spread offense they have faced this year, including Appalachian State, Northwestern, and Eastern Michigan. Purdue is light years better than any of those three schools, and I think that Purdue's loss to OSU more a reflection of OSU's dominance than Purdue's nimcompoopery. I'm looking forward to playing Purdue on the moneyline as well, as I think they pull this one out at the big house, but I take the points here.

Missouri +12.5 vs. Oklahoma (CRIS) Missouri winning at Oklahoma is going to be the story of the college football universe next week. I do not believe in the Sooners, and that Missouri team is scary impressive.

Cincinatti -10 vs. Louisville A lot of points, and Louisville can put up garbage points should it get out of hand, but I trust that Cincy will ice this one early. That Louisville defense is just atrocious, and the offense hasn't really looked right either. Here's a fun fact- Cincy is the only undefeated team in college football ATS. Play it again, Sam!
Author:  a retard [ Fri Oct 12, 2007 9:40 am ]
Post subject: 
a retard wrote:
From Sportsbook

Wisconsin +7 over Penn State
Badgers rebound while Paterno deals with distractions

Minnesota +5.5 over Chicago
I think the Bears win but it's closer than this

Arizona -4.5 over Carolina
Arizona is who I think they are (improving) while Carolina also is who I think they are (bad)

Dallas +5.5 over NE
Romo rebounds from his bad outing

Oakland +9.5 over San Diego
Big spread in divisional game might mean a trap (maybe for me!)


One more:

Hawaii at San Jose State: Under 70
Swiped this one from Sportsbook.com's Game of the Day. "Amazingly, over the past three seasons versus WAC opponents, San Jose State covered the OVER only one out of 17 times. On the road, Hawaii scores about 13 points fewer then they do at home. San Jose State's defense has played solid at home giving up an average of just 17 points. However, their offense only produces 17 points per game thus far. Given the data above, it is surprising that only 7% of the early bettors prefer the UNDER (70).)." I don't know why I am doing this - it seems like their Game of the Day picks are often wrong (cannot imagine why...)
Author:  muman89 [ Fri Oct 12, 2007 10:17 am ]
Post subject: 
From Sportsbook...

NCAA

Central Florida +11.5 @ South Florida

SFU wins it at home, but it's close.

Kentucky +9.5 vs LSU

Wildcats bounce back at home, enough to keep it tight with the Tigers.

Boston College -13.5 @ Notre Dame

Despite winning last week, Notre Dame comes back to reality this week.

NFL

Arizona -4.5 vs Carolina

Whether it's Vinny or Carr starting, trouble for the Panthers in Phoenix.

Patriots -5.5 @ Dallas

Dallas turnovers kill them, Pats win by 10.

Raiders +9.5 @ San Diego

Chargers win outright, but Raiders keep it interesting.
Author:  Brick [ Fri Oct 12, 2007 10:43 am ]
Post subject: 
Michigan -5.5 vs. Purdue
I predicted this as a loss before the season started and I predicted a win over OSU. Hopefully I am wrong on both counts. Time for Purdue to surprise me for once. I hope I am wrong.

Boston College -13.5 vs. Notre Dame
Something is fishy here, but I think ND is getting too much here for winning last week. ND has 0 offense.

Penn State -7 vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin has yet to look good in a game this year, it won't start now

Kent State +31 vs. Ohio State
OSU won't care enough to dominate by that score.

LSU -9.5 vs. Kentucky
Kentucky is not Florida, and LSU had it's wakeup call last week.
Author:  Gloopan Kuratz [ Fri Oct 12, 2007 11:45 am ]
Post subject: 
KC +3
Bears -6
Philly -3.5
Arizona Cardinals -4.5
Purdue +5.5
Va Tech -14.5
Author:  Mustang Rob [ Fri Oct 12, 2007 11:51 am ]
Post subject: 
Gloopan Kuratz wrote:
KC +3
Bears -6
Philly -3.5
Arizona Cardinals -4.5
Purdue +5.5
Va Tech -14.5


Quote:
You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick.


Play by the rules.
Author:  Chus [ Fri Oct 12, 2007 3:54 pm ]
Post subject: 
Michigan -5.5 W
Navy/Pitt over 53.5 W
Navy/Pitt over 26.5 (1st half) W
Mississippi +6.5 L
San Jose State +17 W
Wisconsin +7 L
Hawaii/San Jose State under 68.5 L
Hawaii/San Jose State under 35 (1st half) W
New Mexico +4 W
Notre Dame +14 W
Wisconsin +4 (1st half) L
Western Michigan -4.5 L
Syracuse +17.5 L
Minnesota +7 W
Kent State +31 L
Miami, FL -2 L
Duke +14.5 L
Louisville +10 W
TCU -6 L
Fresno State -9.5 W
Virginia -3 L
Texas A&M +10 L
Central Florida +10 L
Arkansas State -8.5 W
Memphis -3 L
Houston -22 L
Mississippi State +7 L
Missouri +13 W

NCAA: 12-16
NFL: 6-5-1
Week: 18-21-1

NFL Week 6
Kansas City +3 W
Jacksonville -6.5 W
Minnesota +5 W
Arizona -3.5 L
Oakland +10 L
Washington +3 PUSH
Philadelphia/NY Jets over 42.5 L
New Orleans +6 W
New Orleans/Seattle under 43 L

6 pt. teaser:
New Orleans +12/under 49 W

Atlanta +5.5 L
NY Giants/Atlanta under 44 W
Author:  Darren - Tinley Park [ Fri Oct 12, 2007 4:29 pm ]
Post subject: 
Boy, am I due :oops: (thegreek.com):

Hawaii -17 over San Jose State
Hoping to start the week off early and profitable.

Wisconsin +7 against Penn State
Not necessarily calling for the outright win, but this is the battle between the last two losers against the Illini. Too much turmoil this week in Happy Valley.

Boston College -13.5 over Notre Dame
Notre Dame is still probably hung over from last week's shocker against UCLA. Back to the real world for the golden domers.

TCU -6 over Stanford
Once again the hangover theory comes into play.

Missouri +12 against Oklahoma
Too many points to give a hot team.

Arizona -4.5 over Carolina
Carolina's offense is in shambles. Who's playing quarterback?

Arizona / Carolina under 40.5
Again no offense from Carolina.
Author:  Chus [ Fri Oct 12, 2007 4:40 pm ]
Post subject: 
Wisconsin +7
Author:  hootmon [ Fri Oct 12, 2007 4:43 pm ]
Post subject: 
5 picks of the week (lines from The Greek)

Bengals -3 over the Chefs.

Iggles -3.5 over the Jets.

Tampa -3 over the Titans.

Raiders +9.5 over the Chargers.

Pats -5.5 over the Cowgirls.
Author:  Chus [ Fri Oct 12, 2007 5:33 pm ]
Post subject: 
Hawaii/San Jose State under 68.5
Hawaii/San Jose State under 35 (1st half)
Author:  Irish Boy [ Fri Oct 12, 2007 6:05 pm ]
Post subject: 
Hawaii/San Jose State under 69 (bodog) SJS games rarely reach the over.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Fri Oct 12, 2007 6:53 pm ]
Post subject: 
KC +3 vs. Cincinatti If LJ doesn't run crazy against a team with no linebackers and Bryan Robinson, I don't know that he gets to 1000 yards this season. Waiting for Cincinatti to start winning again is like waiting for Godot. I had hoped that some book would raise this to 3.5, but that's not going to happen, and I'm going to hop on this while I still have the opportunity.
Author:  M_C [ Fri Oct 12, 2007 8:37 pm ]
Post subject: 
USF -11.5 over Central Fla, these guys are for real and are going to run the table, oh yeah they're my parents alma mater, gotta take one for the family.

Michigan -5, Purdue showed their true colors last Saturday, this will be a non Hart stopping blowout 31-7

Penn St -7 JoPa is going to pistolwhip the cheeseheads, double digit victory

Iowa +4.5 this game will go to OT, Iowa is going to be pumped up after getting it in the you know what against Indiana their last home game.
Author:  reents [ Fri Oct 12, 2007 8:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Saturday
Purdue +5 vs Michigan- If Purdue wins this one, this could be a special season and Michigan really hasn't beaten anybody and Purdue will bring the spread and hopefully call a better offensive game than they did against Ohio State.

Miami -2.5 vs Georgia Tech- The Yellow Jackets have struggled lately and hopefully Miami rebounds at home to erase the memory of the loss to North Carolina.

Louisville +10 vs Cincinnati0 I don't beleive in Cincinnati yet and I think Louisville is still a dangerous team, Brohm if he still cares can win this game, if he doesn't he is probably already looking to playing for the Falcons next year.

California -14 vs Oregon State- Cal is playing the best in the Pac 10, what helps them is they had a bye after the big win over Oregon and the Beavers are having some major injuries and Cal's next game that they will have is agianst USC.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Fri Oct 12, 2007 10:22 pm ]
Post subject: 
Georgia Tech @ Miami -2.5
GT is such an erratic team this year. They looked like a world beater earlier in the season and struggled of late. Miami is the same way but loves to play in the Orange Bowl (4 wins). After the loss at UNC, Shannon ripped em a new one - they'll be all frothy.

Illinois at Iowa +6 (beted)
6 feels too high to be getting at home where you've won 22 of the last 25. Iowa catches Illinois in a trap game.

Boston College -13.5 (5dimes) @ ND

Did everyone know ND won last week? Yes, and they did it with under 150 yards of total O? BC is just clicking on all cylinders and their coach is making sure they aren't this one for granted. Matt Ryan builds a Heisman case here.

Texas @ Iowa State +17 (bodog)
The loss of Sweed will hurt the passing attack of Texas while Iowa State tends to play better as a dog. If Brent Meyer can toss the pill to Todd Blythe, they will cover this number.

Army @ Central Michigan -13.5 (beted)
Central Michigan is playing great ball right now putting up points in bunches. Army is playing better than past years and will compete but the Chippewa O will overpower them.
Author:  Bud Dude [ Sat Oct 13, 2007 9:42 am ]
Post subject: 
I have some catching up to do but should be no problem gettin to 50

Sat Oct 13th

New Mexico +4 over Wyoming

New Mexico 13-0 ATS after a bye. Visitor has covered last 4.

Penn St -7 over Wisky

Wisky bubble burst last week. Series favorite 6-2

Tex Tech -10 over Tex AM

Tex Tech won the last 2 at home in this series by 31 and 39. AM Coach has some problems right now.

Missouri +12 over Oklahoma

Dog has covered last 3 in this series, Mizzou 9-4 as a road dog.

Air Force +3 over Colorado St

A team that has lost 12 straight favored? Dog is 11-5 in the series.

Cincy -9.5 over Louisville

Cincy has to be one of the big suprises this year, Louisville one of the big disapointments. I will take the hotter team with the better D.
Author:  Chus [ Sat Oct 13, 2007 10:11 am ]
Post subject: 
New Mexico +4
Notre Dame +14
Wisconsin +4 (1st half)
Western Michigan -4.5
Author:  Chus [ Sat Oct 13, 2007 10:23 am ]
Post subject: 
Syracuse +17.5
Minnesota +7
Kent State +31
Miami, FL -2
Duke +14.5
Louisville +10
TCU -6
Fresno State -9.5
Virginia -3
Texas A&M +10
Central Florida +10
Arkansas State -8.5
Memphis -3
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