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Another guy with an outstanding totals record over 65% will be releasing Rice over 128 very soon. It's already moved 1.5 points from the open because several of us have already hit it, but watch it move another 3 points after he releases it. If you play my totals early before I release them (and I can put them up here first if anybody wants them) and/or his totals before he releases them, you will usually have the opportunity to buy back and set up 3-6 point middles.

Wednesday 2/6

Yesterday: 0-1
YTD: 76-55-4, +26.1
Sides: 26-29-1; Totals 50-26-3

761/762 LaSalle-George Washington OVER 140.5, 2*
I got on this one last night at 139, but I still endorse it at the current widely available number of 140.5. LaSalle plays fast (48th in the nation at 71.1 possessions/game) and GW has shown it will play fast with opponents that like to do so (71 possessions vs. Auburn, 73 vs. Rhode Island, 83 vs. Duquesne). I think this one will play out over 140 combined possessions and maybe as high as 150. GW has played a tough slate recently against good defenses and mostly slowish teams, but showed vs. Temple that their offensive slump of a few weeks ago is being cured...especially against weak defenses. LaSalle is not a very good defensive team, allowing its last five A-10 opponents to shoot 49% overall. I expect that GW might play faster than it has recently against some of the good defenses it has faced because GW should find plenty of opportunities for good shots. LaSalle may give up points, but they can score, particularly with their guards, and they have a decent and athletic front court. They are shooting nearly 47% in their last five and are facing a GW team that is giving up 48% in its last five. LaSalle’s pace and offensive efficiency have resulted in them passing 70 points in every A-10game except the one vs. X, the best team/best defensive team in the conference. Because of an expected pace between 140 and 150 and because I expect both teams to shoot 45% or better, I make this number 151...which is a 10 point margin over the line, qualifying it for a 2** play.

North Carolina -4

Duke has the propensity to go cold shooting and the defense has not been that tight this year. If Lawson's out I don't know who picks up the slack and I think Hansborough will have a big game.

You must know something Coast. Vegas doesn't have the LaSalle/GW or Akron/W. Michigan totals on the board. At least not at the 4 books my dad was at.

I love Indiana tonight against Illinois -1.5. Purdue won there pretty easy on Saturday, and Indiana is alot better than them, even with the crowd giving it to Gordon and Sampson all night, should be an easy winner.

557/558 Penn State-Michigan OVER 131.5, 1*
These teams are very similar in that they play a comparable pace (65.5/66 possessions/game) and are more efficient offensively than defensively. In fact, in the defense-oriented Big Ten, in which 8 of the 11 teams are in the top 100 for defense, these two teams are not. Both of these teams’ defenses are giving up right at one point per possession (98.0 and 102.6) . Only Northwestern is worse defensively in the conference. Good defenses have stopped both of these teams, but I don’t expect to see that today. If you look at the games these teams have played against teams that are not top 100 defenses, they have generally had solid offensive games going above, and some times well above,1 point per possession. And even against the tough defenses they've faced, both still average 1.07 and 1.08 points per possession. I’m looking for a game at 139 or above, so would play this up to 134.

this greaking board is jinxing me. Damn. Nothing but losers when I post them here. Will try one more.

South Alabama-Troy OVER 151.5, 1*
Track meet with one team that shoots pretty well at home (Troy) and doesn't play any defense. Sorry no time today for details.

Author:	Coast2Coast [ Tue Feb 05, 2008 5:48 pm ]
Post subject:	College Hoops Picks - February
I have been posting all my college hoops picks elsewhere, but if anybody here is interested, I'll post them here also. If nobody is playing hoops, that's fine. It will save me the cut and paste. The record below is for all my posted plays at that other site. A couple of local teams tonight... Monday: 2-0 YTD: 76-54-4, +27.3 Sides: 26-28-1; Totals 50-26-3 517 DePaul +8, -120 @ Providence, 1* These two teams are even in so many ways...shooting percentage, defense, pace/tempo, players that aren’t playing to their talent and take too many bad shots, questionable coaching.....the list goes on. Neither team can be trusted as a favorite, but in this matchup, I’d take either team getting 7 points as I make this line 4 on either’s court and pick em on a neutral floor. The first time they played a month ago in Chicago, DePaul won by 5 a 2 point favorite, meaning the linesmaker had Providence 2 points higher in power ratings when he set that line. Now apparently the linesmaker has Prov 3 points higher. I don’t see it. Since that DePaul game, Prov beat the two worst teams in the conference (South Fla and Rutgers), lost at home to Seton Hall and was blown out by West Va. Yes, they also won at UConn, which is Prov’s signature win on the season, but that win appears to be a fluke as they have not played to that level in any other game. Prov has lost 4 straight and its only cover was vs. ND in which it lost by 7 as 9 point dogs. DP on the other hand has covered 2 of 3 and 4 of its last 6. I’m comfortable with my ratings on both teams and believe that these teams are even and either team should be -4 at home. I’ll take the value as I find it. As usual, I bought the half when a single digit line is on the half. Had a lean to Buffalo-NIU OVER 141.5 tonight, but am just playing it small as an "unofficial" play. I think the pace will be plenty fast enough, but these are two really bad teams offensively. But they are also bad defensively, so maybe the pace will be enough. WHen I play an over I usually like two teams that play fast AND can shoot straight, not just one of those.

Author:	Chus [ Tue Feb 05, 2008 7:15 pm ]
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I have been playing college hoops all year. There doesn't seem to be much talk here, but I for one, am always interested in your hoops acumen, Coast.

Author:	BD [ Tue Feb 05, 2008 7:22 pm ]
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Keep it coming! Good infomation. Love the write-ups.

Author:	Coast2Coast [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 11:30 am ]
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Wednesday 2/6 Yesterday: 0-1 YTD: 76-55-4, +26.1 Sides: 26-29-1; Totals 50-26-3 761/762 LaSalle-George Washington OVER 140.5, 2* I got on this one last night at 139, but I still endorse it at the current widely available number of 140.5. LaSalle plays fast (48th in the nation at 71.1 possessions/game) and GW has shown it will play fast with opponents that like to do so (71 possessions vs. Auburn, 73 vs. Rhode Island, 83 vs. Duquesne). I think this one will play out over 140 combined possessions and maybe as high as 150. GW has played a tough slate recently against good defenses and mostly slowish teams, but showed vs. Temple that their offensive slump of a few weeks ago is being cured...especially against weak defenses. LaSalle is not a very good defensive team, allowing its last five A-10 opponents to shoot 49% overall. I expect that GW might play faster than it has recently against some of the good defenses it has faced because GW should find plenty of opportunities for good shots. LaSalle may give up points, but they can score, particularly with their guards, and they have a decent and athletic front court. They are shooting nearly 47% in their last five and are facing a GW team that is giving up 48% in its last five. LaSalle’s pace and offensive efficiency have resulted in them passing 70 points in every A-10game except the one vs. X, the best team/best defensive team in the conference. Because of an expected pace between 140 and 150 and because I expect both teams to shoot 45% or better, I make this number 151...which is a 10 point margin over the line, qualifying it for a 2** play.

Author:	Chus [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 11:47 am ]
Post subject:
I am going to tail you. Your season record on totals is unreal.

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College Hoops Picks - February https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=18481	Page 1 of 4

Author:	Coast2Coast [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:18 pm ]
Post subject:
Yes it is. I'm working with some guys from Vegas who are pounding these plays offshore with max bets at several books. They've already raised the number to 144 in the 20 minutes since I posted this. Anyone reading this from this point on will get a much worse number. FYI, I use a 5 point margin over my line for a 1 star and 10 point margin for a 2 star. Thus, I make this a 2 star play up to 141 and a 1 star play up to 146. It is no play at a line higher than 146.

Author:	Coast2Coast [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:25 pm ]
Post subject:
Another guy with an outstanding totals record over 65% will be releasing Rice over 128 very soon. It's already moved 1.5 points from the open because several of us have already hit it, but watch it move another 3 points after he releases it. If you play my totals early before I release them (and I can put them up here first if anybody wants them) and/or his totals before he releases them, you will usually have the opportunity to buy back and set up 3-6 point middles.

Author:	Chus [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:30 pm ]
Post subject:
Coast2Coast wrote: Another guy with an outstanding totals record over 65% will be releasing Rice over 128 very soon. It's already moved 1.5 points from the open because several of us have already hit it, but watch it move another 3 points after he releases it. If you play my totals early before I release them (and I can put them up here first if anybody wants them) and/or his totals before he releases them, you will usually have the opportunity to buy back and set up 3-6 point middles. Absolutely.

Author:	Brick [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:35 pm ]
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That is some great analysis there. I don't really gamble on sports but if I do I better get my knowledge together if I'm competing against this kind of analysis.

Author:	Chus [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:44 pm ]
Post subject:
Coast2Coast wrote: Wednesday 2/6 Yesterday: 0-1 YTD: 76-55-4, +26.1 Sides: 26-29-1; Totals 50-26-3 761/762 LaSalle-George Washington OVER 140.5, 2* I got on this one last night at 139, but I still endorse it at the current widely available number of 140.5. LaSalle plays fast (48th in the nation at 71.1 possessions/game) and GW has shown it will play fast with opponents that like to do so (71 possessions vs. Auburn, 73 vs. Rhode Island, 83 vs. Duquesne). I think this one will play out over 140 combined possessions and maybe as high as 150. GW has played a tough slate recently against good defenses and mostly slowish teams, but showed vs. Temple that their offensive slump of a few weeks ago is being cured...especially against weak defenses. LaSalle is not a very good defensive team, allowing its last five A-10 opponents to shoot 49% overall. I expect that GW might play faster than it has recently against some of the good defenses it has faced because GW should find plenty of opportunities for good shots. LaSalle may give up points, but they can score, particularly with their guards, and they have a decent and athletic front court. They are shooting nearly 47% in their last five and are facing a GW team that is giving up 48% in its last five. LaSalle’s pace and offensive efficiency have resulted in them passing 70 points in every A-10game except the one vs. X, the best team/best defensive team in the conference. Because of an expected pace between 140 and 150 and because I expect both teams to shoot 45% or better, I make this number 151...which is a 10 point margin over the line, qualifying it for a 2** play. It opened at 138, and is now at 145.5 in some places.

Author:	At Large [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:54 pm ]
Post subject:
I'll hop in here and post what I'm on for those interested. . . North Carolina -4 Duke has the propensity to go cold shooting and the defense has not been that tight this year. If Lawson's out I don't know who picks up the slack but I think Hansborough will have a big game. Wake Forest -2 Wake Forest boasts a fine record ATS the spread this year. Georgia Tech has lost too many close conference games this year for me not to back the Demons at home.

Author:	Chus [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:55 pm ]
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At Large wrote: North Carolina -4 Duke has the propensity to go cold shooting and the defense has not been that tight this year. If Lawson's out I don't know who picks up the slack and I think Hansborough will have a big game. I really love the under (163) in this game.

Author:	Coast2Coast [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 3:22 pm ]
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Rick, For years I handicapped games quite differently. I was like most people who picked winners based 90% on opinion and 10% on math. The way I've come to cap hoops totals is now 90% math and 10% opinion. I'm looking for mathematical and statistical edges that are meaningful to the line. And look at my record: Trying to pick which team is going to win a game or cover based on matchups, fundamentals, situations (which is 90% opinion), has resulted in a lifetime record of 55% and some years (like this year) under 50%. I'm little better than had I just flipped coins. On the other hand, finding statistical variations in totals (which is 90% math), has resulted in me being in the high 60s the last few years. I'm working on developing better math models for all sports. Sometimes they lose (like the Super Bowl). But overall, things have never been better. Increasingly, my opinion about teams and how they play or might play a game is becoming less and less relevant to what I bet. The quality and relevance of my numbers are increasingly the msot important factors.

Author:	Beardown [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 3:30 pm ]
Post subject:
My dad is still in Vegas. I gave him the Rice over. He just called me back and he got it at 129.5. He said that was the opening line at Mirage. He said the LaSalle/George Washington total isn't offered as of yet.

Author:	At Large [ Thu Feb 07, 2008 10:22 am ]
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2/7 0-2 Yesterday Okay, bad night. Made most of it up in the NBA (thankfully the NBA record IS better, lol). Let's try this again. Xavier/St. Louis Over 119.5 Xavier averages almost 80 points per game and this will be on national TV tonight. Though we're talking about 3 games Xavier has not won in St. Louis since 1990 and, while St. Louis has had its share of offensive duds this year, I think they keep things close for enough time to push the total over.

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Author:	Brick [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 3:32 pm ]
Post subject:
Where do your numbers come from? I know you do your own analysis, but what's a good source for statistics similar to that?

Author:	Coast2Coast [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 3:39 pm ]
Post subject:
kenpom.com is THE source for possession statistics. And inside that website, there are all kinds of data and analyses that can be done. Go to that webiste. Click on "stats". Then click on the T above the list of teams on the left. You will then have every team sorted by conference. It will show their average number of possessions, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency (points per possession). Now go to the team of your choice. Click on it. Click on "game plan" to find possession statistics, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency for that team in every game. You can use that to see how fast teams play against other fast teams, how well they score or defend against certain kinds of teams, etc. There is a bunch more regression analysis that can be done with that data, but that will give you a good start. shooting percentages, box scores, game data, etc. comes from covers.com. Go to ncaab matchups, then click the game of your choice.

Author:	Brick [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 4:08 pm ]
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Awesome. I like it.

Author:	schmitty1121 [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 4:57 pm ]
Post subject:
Great stuff guys. Thought I was the only one playing college games. Keep it coming.

Author:	Coast2Coast [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 5:10 pm ]
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Here's one I am not releasing publicly as an "official play", so this line is not going to go up substantially as there aren't a dozen guys hitting this with max bets.. I'm not playing it for a full unit, but for a nice taste: Akron-Western Michigan OVER 134.5 These two teams consistently deliver over 1 point per possession each in almost every game. The reason they are so productive scoring is that they are both aggressive going to the rack and draw a lot of fouls. I expect both teams to shoot more than 20 FTs tonight. Western also likes an uptempo game and I expect there to be more than 135 possessions.

Author:	Beardown [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:54 pm ]
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You must know something Coast. Vegas doesn't have the LaSalle/GW or Akron/W. Michigan totals on the board. At least not at the 4 books my dad was at.

Author:	Coast2Coast [ Wed Feb 06, 2008 9:30 pm ]
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Split on those two with easy winner on Akron-WMU, but loser on LaSalle-GW by a bucket. Sorry guys. I need to get better at predicting home teams like GW starting games shooting 3/26. And then LaSalle was so far ahead that the scrubs came in the last few minutes and didn't do squat. LaSalle stalled the clock and GW didn't foul. One basket last 3 minutes. One hoop short. 80-58.

Author:	Coast2Coast [ Thu Feb 07, 2008 12:40 am ]
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Beardown wrote: You must know something Coast. Vegas doesn't have the LaSalle/GW or Akron/W. Michigan totals on the board. At least not at the 4 books my dad was at. Nope. I don't "know" anything. That's tout speak. Here's the deal. There are three of us who work independently but are each over 65% on college hoops totals. We are all working with a group of Vegas gamblers and betting syndicates. Books everywhere are getting killed on totals. The books have been running scared all season and have cut limits on college hoops totals. Five years ago, I could bet $2k on a college hoops total if I wanted. Today, I can only bet $500 on a college hoops total at any book, which means we need multiple books to spread our bets around. Vegas books now won't let anyone bet more than $500 on a total either until you show yourself to be a dumb tourist by making a bunch of losing bets. Vegas books now open mid-afternoon for totals because they want the offshores to absorb the early risk of a bad number so we can pound the offshores and not them. And on some games that really steamed, like the GW game I gave out, some of the Vegas books won't even offer them. That's why we usually release plays late in the afternoon when all the Vegas books have posted numbers and the market is larger. Just couldn't do that today for other reasons. But on most days, our plays are out after 4 pm CT when all the Vegas books are open for totals and all the games are available to be bet to the $500 max. If you ever watch the screens for the offshores or Vegas(lines.sbrlines.com), you will see exactly when and where our games are being bet and how quickly the lines move. All for naught today. All three of us lost our main plays...the first time I remember that happening all season. Fortunately, my Akron play cushioned the blow.

Author:	schmitty1121 [ Thu Feb 07, 2008 8:52 am ]
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I love Indiana tonight against Illinois -1.5. Purdue won there pretty easy on Saturday, and Indiana is alot better than them, even with the crowd giving it to Gordon and Sampson all night, should be an easy winner.

Author:	Brick [ Thu Feb 07, 2008 10:18 am ]
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schmitty1121 wrote: I love Indiana tonight against Illinois -1.5. Purdue won there pretty easy on Saturday, and Indiana is alot better than them, even with the crowd giving it to Gordon and Sampson all night, should be an easy winner. Purdue did not win there easily. Illinois played very well. It just turns out that E'twuan Moore for Purdue did his best Jordan impression in the second half. I'd pick Illinois to win straight up in this game. That is there Super Bowl. As for Indiana being alot better than Purdue, what is IU's best win this year? Don't put too much stock into Indiana being a great team until they prove it.

Author:	Coast2Coast [ Sat Feb 09, 2008 12:32 pm ]
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Saturday 2/9 Wednesday: 0-1 YTD: 76-56-4, +23.9 Sides: 26-29-1; Totals: 50-27-3 One late afternoon and one night. 557/558 Penn State-Michigan OVER 131.5, 1* These teams are very similar in that they play a comparable pace (65.5/66 possessions/game) and are more efficient offensively than defensively. In fact, in the defense-oriented Big Ten, in which 8 of the 11 teams are in the top 100 for defense, these two teams are not. Both of these teams’ defenses are giving up right at one point per possession (98.0 and 102.6) . Only Northwestern is worse defensively in the conference. Good defenses have stopped both of these teams, but I don’t expect to see that today. If you look at the games these teams have played against teams that are not top 100 defenses, they have generally had solid offensive games going above, and some times well above,1 point per possession. And even against the tough defenses they've faced, both still average 1.07 and 1.08 points per possession. I’m looking for a game at 139 or above, so would play this up to 134. Tennessee-Chattanooga & Georgia Southern OVER 153, 1* The two fastest teams in the Southern Conference hook up again for their usual track meet. The Tennessee Chattanooga Mocs are my favorite over team in that they are predictably fast, shoot a lot of treys, get a lot of offensive rebounds, and don’t play great defense. Maybe we have a little value here considering the Mocs have played three straight unders since their 187 point game with Ga. Southern 9 days ago. But even though they have played three unders, they have not slowed anything down. Those games had more to do with other specific situations, not that the Mocs.One game was vs. Davidson, a great defensive team, the next was vs. a Western Carolina team that was a very bad spot for the Mocs playing 3 games in 5 days (I had WCU in that one) and the last game was versus a Furman team that tried to control tempo. None of those things apply today. Ga Southern is not a great defensive team, and I see no reason to believe they will try to control tempo here. I make this number 159 so would play it up to 154. It’s interesting, the linesmaker was off on this matchup 9 days ago and it went way over. The line is higher here, but I think it’s still too low.

Author:	Chus [ Sat Feb 09, 2008 12:48 pm ]
Post subject:
Thanks, Coast.

Author:	Chus [ Sat Feb 09, 2008 2:31 pm ]
Post subject:
Coast2Coast wrote: 557/558 Penn State-Michigan OVER 131.5, 1* These teams are very similar in that they play a comparable pace (65.5/66 possessions/game) and are more efficient offensively than defensively. In fact, in the defense-oriented Big Ten, in which 8 of the 11 teams are in the top 100 for defense, these two teams are not. Both of these teams’ defenses are giving up right at one point per possession (98.0 and 102.6) . Only Northwestern is worse defensively in the conference. Good defenses have stopped both of these teams, but I don’t expect to see that today. If you look at the games these teams have played against teams that are not top 100 defenses, they have generally had solid offensive games going above, and some times well above,1 point per possession. And even against the tough defenses they've faced, both still average 1.07 and 1.08 points per possession. I’m looking for a game at 139 or above, so would play this up to 134. Thanks for the heads up, the total has jumped to 134.5

Author:	Coast2Coast [ Sun Feb 10, 2008 12:05 pm ]
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this greaking board is jinxing me. Damn. Nothing but losers when I post them here. Will try one more. South Alabama-Troy OVER 151.5, 1* Track meet with one team that shoots pretty well at home (Troy) and doesn't play any defense. Sorry no time today for details.

Author:	Chus [ Sun Feb 10, 2008 4:10 pm ]
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Coast2Coast wrote: this greaking board is jinxing me. Damn. Nothing but losers when I post them here. Will try one more. South Alabama-Troy OVER 151.5, 1* Track meet with one team that shoots pretty well at home (Troy) and doesn't play any defense. Sorry no time today for details. Easy winner.