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MLB regular season wins
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=18771		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Chus [ Fri Feb 15, 2008 7:39 pm ]
Post subject:  MLB regular season wins
NY Yankees under 94 - The Yankees pitching isn't good enough to win 94, in my humble opinion.

St Louis under 77.5 - The Cards are Poo-holes and a bunch of feces.

Baltimore under 65 - Baltimore just traded Bedard, and will probably trade Roberts. This team sucks. They have 36 games against Bos and NY.


10301 ARIZONA RSW o86½-125
10302 DIAMONBACKS RSW u86½-105

10303 ATLANTA RSW o86-105
10304 BRAVES RSW u86-125

10305 BALTIMORE RSW o65-115
10306 ORIOLES RSW u65-115

10307 BOSTON RSW o95-115
10308 RED SOX RSW u95-115

10309 CHICAGO RSW o87-120
10310 CUBS RSW u87-110

10311 CHICAGO RSW o76-115
10312 WHITE SOX RSW u76-115

10313 CINCINNATI RSW o75½-115
10314 REDS RSW u75½-115

10315 CLEVELAND RSW o90-115
10316 INDIANS RSW u90-115

10317 COLORADO RSW o84-125
10318 ROCKIES RSW u84-105

10319 DETRIOT RSW o92½-115
10320 TIGERS RSW u92½-115

10321 FLORIDA RSW o68½-125
10322 MARLINS RSW u68½-105

10323 HOUSTON RSW o73½-115
10324 ASTROS RSW u73½-115

10325 KANSAS CITY RSW o73½-115
10326 ROYALS RSW u73½-115

10327 LOS ANGELES RSW o92-115
10328 ANGELS RSW u92-115

10329 LOS ANGELES RSW o86½-115
10330 DODGERS RSW u86½-115

10331 MILWAUKEE RSW o84-110
10332 BREWERS RSW u84-120

10333 MINNESOTA RSW o76-115
10334 TWINS RSW u76-115

10335 NEW YORK RSW o91½-115
10336 METS RSW u91½-115

10337 NEW YORK RSW o94-115
10338 YANKEES RSW u94-115

10339 OAKLAND RSW o74-115
10340 ATHLETICS RSW u74-115

10341 PHILADELPHIA RSW o89-115
10342 PHILLIES RSW u89-115

10343 PITTSBURGH RSW o68½-115
10344 PIRATES RSW u68½-115

10345 SAN DIEGO RSW o86-115
10346 PADRES RSW u86-115

10347 SAN FRANCISCO RSW o72-115
10348 GIANTS RSW u72-115

10349 SEATTLE RSW o85½-115
10350 MARINERS RSW u85½-115

10351 ST LOUIS RSW o77½-115
10352 CARDINALS RSW u77½-115

10353 TAMPA BAY RSW o71-115
10354 DEVIL RAYS RSW u71-115

10355 TEXAS RSW o76-115
10356 RANGERS RSW u76-115

10357 TORONTO RSW o83-115
10358 BLUE JAYS RSW u83-115

10359 WASHINGTON RSW o72½-115
10360 NATIONALS RSW u72½-115
Author:  M_C [ Fri Feb 15, 2008 7:44 pm ]
Post subject: 
I agree with your Baltimore prediction, disagree with St. Louis, remember what league/division they are in.

NYY is a tough call, I am suprised its 94, would have predicted 90. I tend to agree with you, that is a lot of wins.
Author:  Chus [ Fri Feb 15, 2008 7:55 pm ]
Post subject: 
Atlanta under 86
Author:  WestmontMike [ Fri Feb 15, 2008 8:30 pm ]
Post subject: 
I know this is just for gambling purposes...but are the White Sox really just 2 and a half games better than the Royals?....the fucking ROYALS!?!?!?!
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Fri Feb 15, 2008 8:59 pm ]
Post subject: 
If BJ Ryan is truly healthy, Blue Jays over 83 looks good.

Mlwaukee over 84 looks good, assuming Sheets can pitch the full season

Phillies under 89 I like without DA Fire and DA Passion
Author:  Chus [ Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:15 am ]
Post subject: 
Dodgers under 87.5
San Diego over 85

these totals have already moved
Author:  Chus [ Wed Feb 20, 2008 1:35 pm ]
Post subject: 
NY Yankees under 94
St Louis under 77.5
Baltimore under 65
Atlanta under 86
Dodgers under 87.5
San Diego over 85
Houston over 74
Minnesota over 73.5
Author:  Frank Coztansa [ Thu Feb 21, 2008 9:19 pm ]
Post subject: 
cubs under
sox over
indians over
astros over
cardinals under
brewers over
dodgers over
red sox under
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Thu Feb 21, 2008 10:38 pm ]
Post subject: 
initial thoughts: I'm going to wait a little while and look at the injury situation, early market moves, and the pitching for a few teams before making my bets. But right now, i'm thinking i'm going back to the well with yankees under that did so well for me last year. Last year it was under 97 though. I'm right there with Chus...their pitching is still not nearly strong enough for 94 wins. And it's not surprising that the most public team in sports would be over-priced.
Author:  Chus [ Fri Feb 22, 2008 8:37 am ]
Post subject: 
The only one that I have locked in, is St. Louis, because it is already on the way down. The rest are just leans, and I will plunk down on a couple of them before the season starts.
Author:  good dolphin [ Fri Feb 22, 2008 9:00 am ]
Post subject: 
Arizona over 86.5. I love the Diamondback pitching and it should be significantly stronger this year with the additions and Randy Johnson coming back.

Red Sox under 95. The same logic as others have used with the Yanks. The Red Sox have ONE starting pitcher coming back with experience that is good...and if you have seen pictures of Beckett, he looks like he has gained 30 pounds. He is one year removed from a 5 ERA. I predict Schilling will not pitch this year, DiceK was nothing once the league adjusted to him, Wakefield is an iffy proposition and then there are prospects like lester and buckholz...The East Coast bias is in full effect because the best teams in the AL are in the Central and West.

Seattle over 85.5. This one seems like a chip shot. This is a much improved team in a division where the bottom two teams have already mailed in this season. I'd put this one as the best play on the board.
Author:  Chus [ Fri Feb 22, 2008 10:19 am ]
Post subject: 
good dolphin wrote:
Seattle over 85.5. This one seems like a chip shot. This is a much improved team in a division where the bottom two teams have already mailed in this season. I'd put this one as the best play on the board.


At bookmaker.com, Seattle is down to 84.5
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Fri Feb 22, 2008 10:20 am ]
Post subject: 
Copied the "Pythagorean" records from the standings over at hardballtimes.com (a great baseball site for stats geeks and those of us who try to find betting edges). As you consider over/unders for season wins, you might consider projecting them off of these records rather than the W/L standings from last year.

Over 162 game samples, things can be thrown off a bit by overachieving or underachieving in close games. If you're the type who believes that there's a skill in winning those and randomness does not figure in to one-run games, then you can just use the regular standings. The regression to the mean types among us might find these Pythagorean records more helpful.

AL EAST
Boston 102-60
NYY 98-64
Toronto 87-75
Baltimore 70-92
Tampa Bay 66-96

AL CENTRAL
Cleveland 92-70
Detroit 89-73
Minnesota 80-82
Kansas City 74-88
CWS 66-96

AL WEST
LAA 90-72
Oakland 79-83
Seattle 79-83
Texas 78-84

Biggest differences are with: Seattle (9 worse by this measure, as they were outscored for the season but posted an 88-74 record), Boston (6 better, as they had a pedestrian 35-38 record in close games but crushed people otherwise), and CWS (6 worse, as they had a winning one-run record despite being horrible).

NL EAST
Philadelphia 88-74
NY Mets 86-76
Atlanta 84-78
Florida 72-90
Washington 70-92

NL CENTRAL
Cubs 87-75
Milwaukee 83-79
Cincinnati 74-88
Houston 72-90
St. Louis 71-91
Pittsburgh 69-93

NL WEST
Colorado 91-72 (extra tie-breaker game)
San Diego 90-73 (same)
LAD 82-80
Arizona 79-83
San Francisco 77-85

The biggest difference in the majors belongs to Arizona. They were 47-29 in close games, but fared badly in blowouts. They were outscored for the season even with a 90-72 record in the newspaper standings. St. Louis is seven games worse here, having posted a solid close game record but being awful otherwise. San Francisco was a dismal 39-55 in close games. With normal distribution based on their run totals, they would have been closer to the pack. It's kind of funny that AZ finished 19 games above SF in the standings but only had a run differential edge of -20 to -37. History favors them merging closer together this year.

I know some of you aren't into the Pythagorean stuff. No need to debate it here unless people want to. Already a lot of stuff in the sabermetric literature about it if anyone wants to do research. Figured I'd post these because it might influence your thinking. Or, other data you find at hardballtimes.com might as well.
Author:  Chus [ Fri Feb 22, 2008 10:32 am ]
Post subject: 
Great stuff, Coast. Glad to see you are back.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Fri Feb 22, 2008 12:38 pm ]
Post subject: 
For anyone who is intrested, Pythagoreans are not only useful for baseball. They are arguably even more important in football, since 1.) the difference between a win and a loss is larger, because of the fewer games played, and 2.) the smaller sample size of the season compared to the relatively larger sample size of drives which produce points, which accounts for Pythagorean differences. There is a strong tendency for teams to deviate to their pythagorean totals from one year to the next, all other things being held constant.

Based on nothing but that alone (and I'm waiting for my PBP 2008 to do any serious analysis), I'd strongly consider the under on Arizona. They should have been a sub .500 team last year, if the run totals are believed. Those things tend to even out across years.
Author:  good dolphin [ Fri Feb 22, 2008 1:01 pm ]
Post subject: 
Irish Boy wrote:
Based on nothing but that alone (and I'm waiting for my PBP 2008 to do any serious analysis), I'd strongly consider the under on Arizona. They should have been a sub .500 team last year, if the run totals are believed. Those things tend to even out across years.


I'd agree if most other factors remained constant. That is not true for the D Backs.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Fri Feb 22, 2008 3:12 pm ]
Post subject: 
I defer to your good judgement, as my interest in baseball drops precipitously once football season starts. I'll turn it into high gear once the Baseball Prospectus comes out. I won't make any plays until then.
Author:  schmitty1121 [ Sun Feb 24, 2008 5:13 pm ]
Post subject: 
5Dimes has the White Sox at 88 wins.
Author:  schmitty1121 [ Sun Feb 24, 2008 8:57 pm ]
Post subject: 
schmitty1121 wrote:
5Dimes has the White Sox at 88 wins.



Must have been an error, its been fixed and is at 78 now.
Author:  reents [ Sun Mar 02, 2008 11:06 am ]
Post subject:  Wins
Twins Under 76- They have lost their 2 best players, and hoping one pitcher in Liriano can come back to form from Tommy Johns surgery, struggled last year and the White Sox should beat them in the division.
Author:  Chus [ Fri Mar 07, 2008 3:32 pm ]
Post subject: 
Detroit is now up to 93. I really like the under here. No question they have a great offense, but there are a lot of question marks with the pitching staff, especially in the pen.
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