It's March. The Madness has begun. There actually may be better opportunities the next 11 days of conference tourneys than there are during the NCAA and NIT tourneys.

537/538 Wichita State-Indiana State UNDER 127, 1*
Somebody likes the other side of this one and pounded the over up from the opening number of 123.5. I don’t agree. This is the first of several conference tournament unders on neutral courts that I will likely be playing over the next 11 days. Here are two below-average paced teams whose defenses are better than their offenses. In their two games this year, one was a 125 point grinder with 59 possessions and the other was a scorefest in which both teams shot well (67 possessions). One thing about the pressure of conference tournaments in which the loser's season is over: the defenses crank it up a notch or two, the pace is often more deliberate than we see during the regular season, and average teams rarely shoot lights out on neutral courts. Wichita had 13 conference games this year with under 120 possessions. I think this is going to be another one.

515/516 Hawaii-Louisiana Tech UNDER 135.5, 1*
La Tech is the 2nd slowest team in the Wac and the worst offense, averaging just 39% shooting and 89 OE. These teams played a 114 possession game with 99 shots a month ago. That game hit 127 with La Tech shooting 50% and Hawaii shooting 53% that night. I expect a similar kind of LaTech pace tonight, but don’t expect both teams to shoot lights out like they did in the first game. If the pace stays under 120 possessions, the two teams will need to average a combined 113 OE to take this over. Even with two bad defenses like we have here, I don’t see that happening, as La Tech shoots under 40% on the year and has gone over 100 OE itself only 3 times all year, while Hawaii has hit 113 OE on the road only once all year. The trip from Hawaii to Ruston is the longest Hawaii has to make in the Wac, making that an additional factor that leads me to think they aren’t going to be shooting lights out tonight.

Coast, how do you feel about this theory: I like the unders in the first game of conference tournaments played in pro or larger than typical stadiums. The perspective behind the basket in larger stadiums is different than in the typical campus stadium. Players seem to shoot for low percentages, even in regular season games, when they move to large venues.

Those numbers moved quickly. Thanks for the insight, Coast. I am looking forward to your March Madness thoughts.

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

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Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Chus, Sorry. I gave them to my pals in Vegas first today. I need to post them here first so you guys get the best numbers.

Dolphin, I agree with that theory and that's part of the reason I am playing the ISU-Wich under tonight.

That's OK. You don't owe me anything. I do like to follow though, because your picks are money.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

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Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

If you want this one, get it quickly. Not only me and my guys in Vegas, but another guy with a large following who posts on a few different boards is about to release this one. This one could easily drop 3 points, setting up a middle if you're so inclinied.

Citadel-Charleston UNDER 138, 2**
Both games these teams played were 120 possessions or less and stayed well under this number and both teams are emphasizing defense as they come into this tournament. Charleston averages over 70 ppg, which is why this number is where it is. But even with Citadel's occasional offensive prowess shooting the trey, this is a freshman team playing in its first conference tourney. I think they are going to be even more deliberate against their cross town rival today.

Another one for Friday night:

763/764 Manhattan-St. Peters UNDER 142, 1*
These two teams are both pretty bad offensively in the very offensive-oriented MAAC. These teams shoot 40% and 41% away from home. Their defenses aren't great statistically, but the matchups here are much better than these teams have often faced in the conference. They In the two games in which they played, (scores of 146 and 127) the offensive efficiencies of both teams were 89, 100, 95 and 102. Neither team overwhelmed the other with outstanding offense. Playing on a neutral court and with both teams being somewhat young and their first post-season tourney experience, I expect this game to play out at even lower numbers than that. So it comes down to tempo/pace. The first game had 130 possessions and the 2nd had 152. Manhattan has really skewed lower in recent games with their last 7 games showing 112, 142, 130.120, 1226, 126, and 144. The average tempo for these teams is 136. Even at that number I expect this to stay under, but if Manhattan plays to recent form, this could play out in the 120s. And if that happens, to take this over would require the kind of strong offensive efficiencies these teams haven't shown very often this year, especially away from their home courts.

Are any of those games tonight on ESPN/ESPN2 or some other channel?

I know the Manhattan-st. Peters game is on one of the new york sports channels and on ESPN Full court. Don't think you can get the Southern Conference game unless you have the big commercial/broadcast dish.

I had a very heavy bet on the charleston-citadel under but middled back half of it on over 133. I love the under but I can't look past the probabilities presented by a point middle touching 6 points. i told you that sucker would move, but a 7 point move from the 140 opening number is alot..even for my guys in LV who regularly hammer numbers into submission.

4 points combined in the first six minutes of the second half.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Thanks for the two easy winners, Coast.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

I'll probably be putting plays out all day long. It's madness.

UNC Asheville -2 vs. Winthrop, 1/2 *
Start off with some morning madness with this early start. We normally don't get to bet this league, but this is the BIg SOuth Champ. game. Asheville's big lug will be a matchup problem of HUGE proportions.

I just got NC-Ashville at PK

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

somebody doesn't agree. A 2 point move across the board right before tip screams BW. I should have waited 5 minutes. I hate buying something that's less than the best price at close. But that's how he does it. He carpet bombs right before the tip. BW=Billy Walters. For an entertaining read about the world's most notable sports gambler, check out Konik's book "Smart Money".

Looking forward to your picks Coast, I am tailing you all day.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

More to come, but this one goes in 40 minutes at noon.
533 UAB +14.5 @ Memphis, 1*
Fair number but the situation finds the game meaningful for Memphis in trying to secure a 1 seed, but they only need to win to do that. Very meaningful for UAB stinging from the 1 pt. loss to Memphis at their place; game won't affect their #2 seeding in the CUSA tourney. UAB feels they should have won that one and will likely bring it today. Big spread for the 1 and 2 teams in CUSA and for two teams that have played several close games in recent years.

Long day to recover from that half shot first loser.

646 Cleveland State -1 vs. Valpo, 1*
To heck with the thought that it's tough to win three in a row. CSU controlled both games in this matchup because they have the defense to guard the trey and stop Huff. THey also won the battle of the boards by 7 in each game. CSU tough D and interior is the difference. Valpo coming off a tough grinder vs. Wright and I love the angle of going against teams coming off short turnarounds (less than 24 hrs).

551/552 Arizona-Oregon UNDER 147.5,1* (late tonight)
Both teams have skewed to slower tempos lately with several low 60s. Arizona has had several games with possessions in the 50s as O'Neill is tightening the reins on the offensive end. 110 OE would be about average for recent offensive performances against common opponents, but both defenses have generally been better than that. Oregon has had two games in the last month above 65 possessions, but one was a foul fest and the other was a blowout. 130 possessions seems the high end of what I expect and if the teams average 110 OE = 143.

C2C - love the writeups, always informative, and I tail as many picks as I can.

What are you thought on the UNC/Duke line and total?

I like Carolina, but based on the power ratings, think Carolina should be getting more than 1.5. Lawson is back and the Heels are much better team with him. I expect Carolina to win outright, but not sure 1.5 is enough to bet it. LIkewise, 170 is right where I would have put the total so see no value in betting it.

North Carolina (+105) ML

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

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Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Agree. Got +108

nice job on carolina guys.

Any picks for late Sunday?

College of Charleston -5 1/2

Tonight we have two championship games in which one team is playing its fourth game in four days and the other team is playing its third in three. And we have two games in which both teams are playing their third game in three days. I look to play these 3/3,4/4 games under because experience tells me fatigue really sets into some of these kids and the pace is generally much slower, especially when you have teams involved that have no other shot at the NCAA tourney. And that's the case tonight with several teams. However, I think the line in one of these games has been pinched too much. The Bill and Mary-George Mason games during the season were lined at 126 and 130, but this one opened at 115. That’s an 11 point pinch, which might be justified if you believe WM will continue to take the air out of the ball. But unlike VCU yesterday, GMU might play a little faster on their end and their D is not nearly as stifling as VCU. I like the game to be low-scoring, but I’ll have to pass that too-short number. The Elon Davidson games during the season were 136 and 140. That one was pinched six points to 130. And that one is the least competitive game of the night, and I expect Elon won't be able to sit on the ball when they're down 15. I'll pass that one too.

521/522 Gonzaga-San Diego UNDER 128.5, 1*
USD coach Grier knows Gonzo and as was the case with the last game, I expect him to try to make this game in the 50s.

523/524 Rider-Siena UNDER 148, 1*
The loss of the younger Thompson affects Rider’s offensive prowess, making it even more imperative to get the ball to the big Thompson (just as they did yesterday). These two teams love to play fast, but I don’t expect it to be so fast tonight. And if the jump shots don’t fall quite so much, there will be even more emphasis on half court sets and working the ball inside...all of which rolls clock.

If you haven't bet the Rider-Siena game yet, don't. The number will likely go higher and you'll get a better price by waiting

Got it at 149, thanks Coast.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

20 point win and we didn't need the best number, but I thought I'd tell you which direction it was going to go. There's a guy with a larger following than I have (we have the same Vegas guys pumping our plays) who gave out the over on that game so I knew it would go higher. That's only the third time all year we were on opposite sides of a play. I'm now 2-1 head to head. I'm now 62% on totals (59-35) he is 60% \. So it's fun to go mano-a-mano like that once in a while. Now onto the Gonzo-SD game, which is the tougher of the two I do believe.