I will be on UCLA-Memphis UNDER first half and Kansas +3 or better. Still considering a play on UNC-KU under first half. Writeups later.

The world's largest sports bettor, Billy Walters, is reportedly the reason that Memphis went from pick to -2. Apparently BW unloaded on Memphis through his guys at books around the world. The guy is worth tens, if not hundreds of millions due directly to sports gambling, and his computer guys are legendary. However, I consider him a serious predictive force only in football betting. He moves lines in hoops because of the huge amounts he plays, but I don't share the reverence others do in never going against him. My picks have been successful several times this year when he was on the other side. But thought you would want to know that the "world's most successful sports bettor" (who had multi millions on the Giants on the moneyline and with the points in the Super Bowl) is going to war with Memphis on Saturday.

Looking forward to your write-ups on these games. Good Luck tonight!

I am not playing the UCLA first half under. I wanted 63 and I'm just not finding one. I think it's the right play, but 62 is just pinched too low. I try not to buy bad numbers. Teams often come out a bit tight in the final four games and 13 of the last 20 games, over the last ten years, went under in the first half. That's not a trend that's worth playing by itself, but coupled with UCLA's game plan to control tempo,I think it's worth a play. HOwever, 63 is the fair number and pinching it to 62 takes about 5% out of this play IMO. So I'll pass this game and total now and maybe make a play at the half.


Kansas +3 vs. North Carolina, 1*
I have had KU rated higher than UNC on my power ratings all year. Going into this game I make KU -1, meaning I see 4 points of value here. I haven't seen value like this in a few weeks. To me, this one is about public perception that Carolina is the better team. I don't agree. Arthur, Jackson and Kaun have the size and athleticism to surround Hansborough and the KU guards have the quickness to stay with Lawson..at least in the half court. The difference in my mind is defense. KU has been a much better D all year long...particularly their 2 point defense. KU is in the top tier in almost every defensive category. Carolina is 117th in 2 point defense...that means teams have consistently scored on Carolina inside the arc. KU has the slashers and the post players to take advantage. Carolina wins by outscoring people, while KU wins at both ends. This isn't a play I'm "going to war with" by any means, but I think these teams are very even and the 3 points seems to me like an overlay. So I'll take it.

Excellent write-up. I was on the fence for this game, and I'm jumping over to Kansas. Should be a great game, looking forward to watching this one!

Good thing you layed off the 62 or even 63.

yeah vince, sometimes the best bets are the ones we don't make. 2nd half under worked, sorry i wasn't around to post it.

taking carolina -7.5 2nd half. gives me KU +3/Carolina +9.5 for the game. Heels will make some runs...