I am not playing the UCLA first half under. I wanted 63 and I'm just not finding one. I think it's the right play, but 62 is just pinched too low. I try not to buy bad numbers. Teams often come out a bit tight in the final four games and 13 of the last 20 games, over the last ten years, went under in the first half. That's not a trend that's worth playing by itself, but coupled with UCLA's game plan to control tempo,I think it's worth a play. HOwever, 63 is the fair number and pinching it to 62 takes about 5% out of this play IMO. So I'll pass this game and total now and maybe make a play at the half.


Kansas +3 vs. North Carolina, 1*
I have had KU rated higher than UNC on my power ratings all year. Going into this game I make KU -1, meaning I see 4 points of value here. I haven't seen value like this in a few weeks. To me, this one is about public perception that Carolina is the better team. I don't agree. Arthur, Jackson and Kaun have the size and athleticism to surround Hansborough and the KU guards have the quickness to stay with Lawson..at least in the half court. The difference in my mind is defense. KU has been a much better D all year long...particularly their 2 point defense. KU is in the top tier in almost every defensive category. Carolina is 117th in 2 point defense...that means teams have consistently scored on Carolina inside the arc. KU has the slashers and the post players to take advantage. Carolina wins by outscoring people, while KU wins at both ends. This isn't a play I'm "going to war with" by any means, but I think these teams are very even and the 3 points seems to me like an overlay. So I'll take it.