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 Post subject: Blue Grass Stakes
PostPosted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 11:21 pm 
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Tomorrow at Keeneland is the last serious Kentucky Derby prep, the Blue Grass Stakes. Going into the race as the prohibitive favorite is Pyro (ML 1-1), one of the favorites to take the Derby. Pyro has looked pretty impressive this year, and the Keeneland polytrack certainly seems to favor closers. However, this is a pretty decent field, and Pyro doesn't need the victory to make the KD; there's a chance this could be nothing but a workout for the colt. Plus with any closer like Pyro there's always the chance for trip trouble.

This 3 year old season has been marred by one horse falling by the wayside after another. War Pass was the horse to beat as a two year old (beating Pyro in the Breeders Cup), but laid an egg in the Tampa Bay Derby and showed poor stamina last weekend at Aqueduct. Denis of Cork was a trendy sleeper pick until he lost against a poor field at Hawthorne last weekend. El Gato Malo lost the Sham stakes by a nose, came back as the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby and lost to the same horse with no trip trouble to speak of. The moral of the story: favorites beware.

Pyro is probably the best horse in this race, but if he is bet even close to even money (which he probably will be), one of the other horses in the race is worth a look. My play is likely to be Big Truck, winner of the aforementioned Tampa Bay Derby over War Pass and others. Big Truck has a nice closing move like Pyro, is 3 for 3 in starts, and needs this race to make the Derby most likely. He also ran a blistering workout over the poly recently. Cool Coal Man is another classy bet but could very well get the majority of the "not pyro" money.

One interesting play at long money is Cowboy Cal, a mostly-turf runner moving to the polytrack for the first time. The turf-to-poly angle is well worn now, but it can be overlooked in high class races like tomorrow's. Might be worth a look at a long price or at the bottom end of the exotics.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 11:33 am 
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http://ww2.keeneland.com/racing/Picture ... 08-Web.pdf

I hate the Blue Grass Stakes since it switched over to Poly. Last year's race was a pig race when they walked on the lead and a colt named Street Sense had no pace to run at and just missed. He just went on to win the Derby.

This year, I foresee an honest pace with Cowboy Cal, Stone Bird, Miner's Claim all wanting the front and Cool Coal Man, Big Truck, Visionaire stalking the pace. As for Pyro, I foresee this being a training race. They might have him closer to the pace today to see if he can rate before getting to Chruchill.

I'm leaning towards Big Truck as well IB. Had he drawn better, I would have liked Visionaire based on his improvement, but given the post and the short run to the clubhouse turn, I'll stay away from him.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 11:43 am 
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Given any thought to the other big prep this weekend - the Arkansas Derby?

Pretty open race though if My Pal Charlie runs back to his last race, he'll be showing the way to the Derby. I don't his odds, but I like Liberty Bull off his last start where he stalked a slower pace and pounced on them in the lane to win the Win Star Derby. It was a weak field but this horse competed with some of these at Oaklawn and went there and won a 600K stake. Local jock Eddie Razo Jr. rides.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 11:46 am 
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I'm tossing out Visionare for practically that reason alone. These horses simply need too much to go from the outside on two turns. I also think his speed figure last time out is suspect.

At Keeneland, you can almost toss out all the speed, especially when there's a couple of horses rushing to the front. But Cowboy Cal has at least shown that he can run effectively from the front on the turf; if I had to count on any one horse to hold on for at least a piece, it's be him. Depending upon the odds, these are my plays today:

Big Truck to win at 6-1 or better
Pyro to win at 2-1 or better (never gonna happen, but still, he's probably the best horse in the race)

EX 6-3
EX 7-3
Tri- 6-7-3
Tri- 6-12-3
Tri 6-3-7
Tri 6-1-3
Tri 6-3-1
Tri 1-7-3
Tri 7-1-3

Most likely $2 on the tris, $5 on the exactas and $20 on the wins. Depends upon the odds at post time, of course.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 11:54 am 
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I think Gayego is best, but the price will be driven too low. I don't have much of an opinion on that one, and there doesn't seem to be many real contenders.

Both the horses coming out of the LA Derby are intriguing if only because of the success other horses have had coming out. The ML I'm looking at puts My Pal Charlie at 12-1, which is ridiculous and will merit a play, but it won't be that by post time. I expect both to go off at around 8-1 or so, which seems legit (Elysian Fields was supposed to be hot shit after the LA derby too, and he bombed, so I'm a bit guarded.)


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 12:22 pm 
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This year has been disappointing on the Derby Trail - too many pretenders and not enough strong horses.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 12:39 pm 
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Every horse has fallen by the wayside. It's been pathetic.

Some blowhard in the DRF wrote an article the day of the Tampa Bay Derby about how the War Pass/Pyro rivalry was setting up to be as good as the Affirmed/Alydar rivalry. Oops. 24 hours later, we'd seen that War Pass came in 7 out of 7 horses and looked horrible doing it. Denis of Cork looked bad last weekend. El Gato Malo disappointed in the Sham, but hung tough (still, how much trip trouble can you get into in a five horse field?) Then he showed nothing in the SA Derby. One after another, they disappear.

At the very least, Pyro has a built-in excuse this weekend, in that he doesn't need the race. Still, it'd be nice to see one horse stand up and race as predicted (although Big Brown did look pretty darn good.)


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 12:49 pm 
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Have you read the commentary from trainer and owner of Denis of Cork? Basically alot of pissiness in that camp. I think Hawthorne that day was playing to speed and by trying to come from the clouds, they had no chance. He might be better in the Derby.

ET Baird stole that one with Recapturetheglory and appears to be getting the first derby mount of his troubled life.

Big Brown is a monster - I haven't seen a horse win with new tactics so easily in quite a while.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 2:00 pm 
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They're full of it. The track was playing to speed, and I don't think any closers came through that day. However, he didn't show anything, and he wasn't the only horse coming from off the pace. Atoned put distance on him on the stretch as well; was that a speed bias too? I know he swund five wide. I know the track was playing to speed. But we're talking about Derby horses; they should show more anyway, regardless of bias. Especially considering that these weren't world-beaters. Hawthorne favors speed in general more days than not; they could have gone to Keeneland or anywhere else if they were concerned about that. I'm not counting on much from him, regardless of the five-wide trip and the bias.

Big Brown looked great, and he set some grueling fractions to win. The only horse that he wasn't accelerating against at the close was Tomcito, who was only keeping pace. The trouble is that in a 20-deep field, there'll be a bunch of horses setting a rough pace. If nothing else, War Pass will certainly do that; so will Recapturetheglory. There'll be a few others as well. A closer like Pyro could take over if the trip is right; a stalker like Colonel John could fare even better.

On local guys- I believe Chris Emigh is running in the Arkansas today. I wouldn't count on much out of his horse Shekinah, but best of luck to him. Good for Baird too.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 2:21 pm 
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Denis of Cork's owner
Quote:
I take sole responsibility for the decision to run in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. Denis of Cork's poor showing was not due to the jockey, Julien Leparoux, or my trainer, David Carroll. The disaster was my fault alone.

I have never made such a bad decision in horse racing as the one I made to take Denis of Cork to Hawthorne. After the race, Suzanne was devastated and I was in total shock. The race was a complete failure and has probably eliminated Denis from the Kentucky Derby.

In mapping out Denis' campaign, I made two very grave errors. First, I paid too much attention to the fact that the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes are three races over five weeks, and I wanted Denis of Cork to participate in all three races.

The five-week schedule is truly a demanding challenge for any three-year old. I worried over that possibility, and thus worked backward from the date of the Kentucky Derby to a race four weeks beforehand and the only two that came up were the Illinois Derby and the Wood Memorial. I did not want Denis of Cork to race this coming weekend because he would have had only three weeks rest before the Kentucky Derby. Hindsight shows we should have raced in The Rebel at Oaklawn.

Second, my research and analysis of the races at Hawthorne in late March showed that 50% of the races were won by horses coming from off the pace and 50% went wire to wire. Thus, I felt the racetrack would be fair to both types of horses.

However, the day of the race, it was evident that in the first six races, the horses that won went to the lead and stayed wire to wire. There was a definite speed bias, particularly along the rail. Simply stated, the Hawthorne racetrack was not a fair track. They never even watered the track between races which would have enabled Denis of Cork to gain traction. The track was cuppy and light, and definitely not suited for any horse coming off the pace. I compromised Denis of Cork's chances of winning by sending him to Hawthorne. He will not do well on a speed bias track.

Those that are invited to participate in the Kentucky Derby qualify by their earnings. At this point in time, I think it is very, very remote that Denis of Cork will be in the Kentucky Derby. I have pre-paid over $86,000 for 18 hotel rooms and transportation. I feel at this time I need to cut my losses and pare back reservations. Thus, I am cancelling everything except for the rooms for my family. Regretably, the best of plans have gone astray, and I herewith apologize to everyone who placed a bet on Denis of Cork. I'm sorry. The only thing we can do now is look forward to his future races where he has an opportunity to win.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 2:43 pm 
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Denis of Cork's trainer wrote:
The track was cuppy and light



Andy Beyer in The Winning Horseplayer wrote:
What exposes the falsity of this notion is the fact that "cuppiness" is used only as a rationalization for defeat. No trainer in the history of the game has ever said, "My horse loves a cuppy track."


I incline towards Beyer on this one. He still should have shown more.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 2:48 pm 
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One other note:

I've been watching Hawthorne all spring, and I've only got one day before the April 5th races maked as a speed bias. Not a rail bias, but a speed bias. Hawthorne has played fairly this spring. April 5th may have been biased as well, but none of the horses winning were unexpected, except in the Illinois Derby. It'll be interesting to see what the winners of the claiming races earlier in the day do when they run again.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 2:51 pm 
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What numbers are these horses ?

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 3:05 pm 
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Irish Boy wrote:
Denis of Cork's trainer wrote:
The track was cuppy and light



Andy Beyer in The Winning Horseplayer wrote:
What exposes the falsity of this notion is the fact that "cuppiness" is used only as a rationalization for defeat. No trainer in the history of the game has ever said, "My horse loves a cuppy track."


I incline towards Beyer on this one. He still should have shown more.


Personally I think the ownership of Denis thought they had a Derby horse after beating a suspect field earlier, made a lot of committments to send people to Kentucky and just needs to cool the jets now. He probably won't get in unless he's an alternate.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 4:22 pm 
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Pyro was fractious in the gate and has nothing. This race will light up the toteboard with Manda winning, cowboy Cal second (both Todd Pletcher horses). Big Truck was laboring the whole race. Visionaire showed nothing.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 4:59 pm 
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Vince sometimes this is an easy game... and then sometimes it's too easy. I had a hunch after watching the 7th race that the trach was tending towards speed. I knew it after the 8th, with the 37-1 shot almost hanging on from gate to wire. I was feeling awful confident about Cal.

And then I saw the board at 8-1, then 7-1. I doubted myself. Truck was down to 9-1. And then I remembered where I was betting- Keeneland. Of course there's no speed bias, they're on the Polytrack. I reduced my Big Truck play to only $5, as I felt more unsure given the last couple of races. I played a few combos involving 6, 3, and 7, and I placed a rather significant place bet on Pyro (who was, if my math was accurate, paying more to place than to win.)

Cowboy Cal got the pace and almost never let go. The other live horse on the board won it. All the strong closers didn't even factor.

I was talking to an old crusty guy at the OTB just before the race about the combos I played. I entertained boxing the 3-5, then saw the payout was only a hare over $100. I figured no way do none of the closers factor in a stakes race at Keeneland. And now I'm poorer. :lol:

Nice day for Edgar Prado, who won both the Blue Grass and the Grade II stakes before hand. He's going home a little bit richer today.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 5:08 pm 
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One last thought:

I'm neutral on polytrack. I don't hate it and I don't love it. If it's safer for the horses, it's probably a good thing (whether it's safer is an open question, but it appears to be.) I know it changes the game, leads to more inconsistency across tracks and makes dirt races more like turf races. But those are just changes, and changes can be good or bad and often lead to opportunities.

I anticipate a lot of comments like this one in the next couple of days on racing message boards:

Quote:
So much for the Toyota ( synthetic ) Blue Grass Stakes . Shouldn't even be a prep for the derby after this.


I took that from another board. Keeneland played today precisely the opposite of how most people assume it does. There's a saying that consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds; so is convenience. You quoted Denis of Cork's owner complaining about how the dirt track played unfair. You're going to hear about the unpredictability of the polytrack and how Pyro, Big Truck, Cool Coal Man etc. didn't have a chance with the speed bias. Which is it- Keeneland and other poly tracks make it impossible to win off the pace, or visa versa? Or is it that, like every other track, the track changes and there's a certain unpredictability involved. It's almost certainly the latter, but a lot of people who lost money today are going to complain about the former.

And I wonder how Denis of Cork's connections feel now. He would have faired even worse today.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 5:09 pm 
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Chus wrote:
What numbers are these horses ?


Sorry, I had already taken off before your post. Don't worry, we saved you money. :lol:


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 5:24 pm 
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Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Pyro was fractious in the gate and has nothing. This race will light up the toteboard with Manda winning, cowboy Cal second (both Todd Pletcher horses). Big Truck was laboring the whole race. Visionaire showed nothing.


I wouldn't be so down on Visionaire. Having seen the replays a couple of times, he had an awfully tough trip and still rallied to 5th. He had a much tougher trip than Cool Coal Man, Pyro, and Big Truck and outperformed them all. He'd have been better off from anywhere but the 12 post.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 5:33 pm 
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Looking at the chart, you're right - Visionaire made up 3 lengths in the lane after running most of the race 5-6Wide.

What OTB are you at?


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 5:44 pm 
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Was at the Brickhouse OTB in good-ole Urbana an hour ago, I'm back home now. I could only get out for a couple of hours, so I couldn't stick around for the Arkansas Derby.

Here's the race: http://www.racereplays.com/kee/frmkrc.htm Click on race 9. Visionaire didn't make up a huge amount of ground, but look at how much ground he lost around the track. He was five wide on the outside, 7 lanes away from the rail. He was 4 wide going into the final turn, 6 wide going into the stretch (the results have him at 12w, but that seems like an exaggeration to me). The speedsters stayed in lanes two and three the whole way. That means that Visionaire ran about 8 or so extra lengths over the course of the track. That's more than he lost by. Not a bad race, all things considered. That also likely means that he can handle the triple crown distances just fine, which we don't know about Colonel John, Big Brown and the others.

The only question is, does he get in? Is he in the top 20?


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 5:59 pm 
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Gayego does win the Arkansas, going off the board at the price of $6.40 for a $2.00 ticket. No big surprise, but this year, a favorite winning a major stakes race is a bit of a surprise, I guess.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 6:28 pm 
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Gayego looked good winning today, but his pedigree will not let him get the 10 furlongs in 4 weeks. He's out of Gilded Time who was a champion sprinter.

Z Fortune ran the best visual race having been hung early and made up ground and almost catch him in the final strdes.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 6:35 pm 
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From the results it looks like Gayego had a pretty easy go of it today. He might not go the 1 1/8, but at least he didn't piss down his leg today, so at least he's go that going for him.

Do you know why Keeneland puts white on all the horses in the 9th race every day? It makes watching the race very difficult.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 10:28 pm 
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Asking a few horse owners I know about eh 9th race thing - will let you know if I find out.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 7:20 pm 
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According to one of my owner friends, they use white cloths for the stakes races.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 9:52 pm 
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That makes sense, as it's always during the 9th race on a 10 race care, but that's always the main race. I don't think they were wearing white for the Grade II Commonwealth beforehand though, but I don't remember.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 10:08 pm 
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Need to dig a bit more - I saw normal saddle cloths for the commonwealth.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 10:17 pm 
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Did they used to wear all white back in the olden days? I know Keeneland is big on tradition- except, you know, for the silicon and tire-pieces track.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 18, 2008 2:28 pm 
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IB: You'll get a laugh out of this - how to win at keeneland

Oh yeah, don't forget to bet Theriot, too:

$2 to Win:

Kent D
67 mounts
Total Cost $134
17 wins, avg. Payout $11.80
Return $200.60
net profit $66.60 ROI 33%


Theriot
52 mounts
total cost $104
10 wins, avg payout $15.80
Return $158.00
net profit $54.00 ROI 34%

The Bomber List:

McKee
21 mounts
total cost $42
4 wins, average payout $31.70
Return $126.80 ROI 300%

Mena
37 mounts
total cost $74
4 wins average payout $31.70
return $126.80
Net profit $52.80 ROI 71%

Bridgmohan
37 mounts
total cost $74
5 wins, average payout $16.80
Return $84.00
Net profit $10.00 ROI 14%

The only other positive ROI Jockey is

Gomez
47 mounts
total cost $94
9 wins, avg payout $10.90
Return $98.10
net profit $4.10 ROI 4%

All other jocks are ROI negative this meet to date.


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