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| US Open https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=21880 |
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| Author: | Chus [ Sun Jun 15, 2008 6:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | US Open |
Thanks to his slow start, I am sitting on a whole bunch of Tiger +130 to win. |
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| Author: | M_C [ Sun Jun 15, 2008 7:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
I'd agreed with you half an hour ago. ..and would have made that same wager. You will probably win. Was he down one to Rocco when you got that, that's phenomenal odds. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:46 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
I'm sitting on a big position on Tiger myself. I bought some Tiger and sold a few back over the weekend and the net effect of all that was to risk nothing to lock in a sizable profit on Tiger if he wins. I could have locked in a profit either way, but I believed Tiger was going to win this all weekend, so on the few occasions when his odds got above +150 and there was sufficient liquidity for me to buy a few hundred worth, I was buying. And when he became the favorite and the odds went up around -400 (early in the back nine), I was selling some back to reduce my exposure. If you want to see the power of "day trading" in golf, this should explain it: Saturday: Tiger Woods (to win) 06/14/08 17:13 +200 300.00 to win $600.00 Tiger Woods (to lose) 06/14/08 21:21 +130 100.00 to win $130.00 At this point, after Saturday, I had $170 risked to win $500 on Tiger, equal to +294 on Tiger, even though the odds never approached that. Sunday: After his 3 over start after two holes, I bought Tiger at +260 Tiger Woods (to win) +260 300.00 to win $780.00 When Tiger was in the lead early in the back nine (before his screwup on 12), the odds balooned to near -400, so I sold some back: Tiger Woods (to lose) +380 123.69 to win $470.02 So going down the stretch, I had total bets of: Tiger Woods (to win) $600.00 to win $1380.00 Tiger Woods (to lose) $223.69 to win $600.02 That gave me this net position: Total: Tiger Woods (to win) Risking 0 to win $1,156.31 Total: Tiger Woods (to lose) Risking 0 to win $.02 So even if Tiger had missed that last putt, I would not have lost anything. I have carried this position into today. I'm risking nothing to win $1156. Go Tiger. |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Coast what do you have to lay today for Tiger? -500? |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:58 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
It opened at -400 last night, but has been bet down to -334 at WSEX right now. I wouldn't read too much into this in terms of the market liking Rocco to win. -400 was over-priced and I think -334 is too high too IMO. I think traders have been buying Rocco and if he gets out to an early lead, I'd expect them to be selling some back and decreasing their exposure and increasing their odds. |
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| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Mon Jun 16, 2008 11:03 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Coast2Coast wrote: I could have locked in a profit either way, but I believed Tiger was going to win this all weekend,...
I'm risking nothing to win $1156. Go Tiger. I'm not a sports gambler by any stretch. But, aren't you really risking what you would have been able to lock in as a profit? Aren't you kidding yourself a little Coast? |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Mon Jun 16, 2008 11:11 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Yes, Doc, you are absolutely right, but I'm not kidding myself. I am aware that I have traded a possible locked-in profit both ways for a position on Tiger. I was using that term "risk" only in terms of explaining what my out of pocket loss would be. |
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| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Mon Jun 16, 2008 11:16 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Yeah, I knew what you meant. I was just giving you some grief. Good luck. I don't think you'll need it though. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Mon Jun 16, 2008 11:28 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
After 2 holes: Woods E Mediate +1 |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Mon Jun 16, 2008 11:35 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Part of the problem was there wasn't a lot of liquidity yesterday when I bought the +380. I could only get $100 worth. But there is more liquidity now. Screw it. I just bought back at +480 and got rid of my position on Tiger. Odds are just too high to pass up. The betting line is crazy. I hit it hard and drove the number back down. 
Bought $199 on Tiger to lose at +480 = $195 to win $955 Now have: $957 profit if Tiger wins; $955 profit if Rocco wins. Now I don't have to sweat a thing. 
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| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Mon Jun 16, 2008 11:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
I'm glad I could talk some sense into you.
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Mon Jun 16, 2008 11:39 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Yes, but the market had to cooperate. Holding out for a better price was worth a few hundred. Patience is a virtue. I was going to do it anyway assuming the price was right, but you pushed me to act perhaps a little sooner. THere will surely be a better price later in the round if TIger gets up 2 or 3, but a bird in the hand... |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Mon Jun 16, 2008 11:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Then again, if Tiger gets down 1 or 2 and becomes the underdog, I may buy some more Tiger . He's down 1 now but still -225 favorite.
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