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| NFL Week 1 https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=24164 |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Tue Sep 02, 2008 4:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | NFL Week 1 |
A few thoughts to kick off week 1: Thursday:Fading the Super Bowl champion is usually a profitable endeavor, not just in week 1, but season-long. I'll try to find that data. Super Bowl Champions over-priced in game 1? Of course. Add to that the fact that the Skins could not have looked worse the last two weeks of the pre. However, I am having a hard time finding any power ratings systems that would have the Giants favored by 3.5 on the road in this week 1 game. This line is set purely based on public perception. Skins looking ugly and the Giants are the champs laying 3.5 on the road? You know which side I'll be on.... CORRECTION..DUH...THE GAME IS IN NEW YORK, NOT WASHINGTON. FORGET EVERYTHING ABOVE..... Sunday:Joe Flacco starting at QB for Baltimore? That will help move the number up for the home puppies. They could be dogs of 3 or more by kick. How sweet would that be? Is there any less deserving team to be road favorites than Cincinnati? Is there any other NFL team that may be more ripe for a total implosion than the Bungles this year? Both of these teams will be pretty bad this year, so going against the one laying points on the road isn't a bad approach. Home dog #2 if the price is right. Is Brady going to play? No line on NE-Chiefs because of that. Brady is one of the few guys in the league that I'd actually move the line 4 points based on him playing or not. |
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| Author: | schmitty1121 [ Tue Sep 02, 2008 4:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: NFL Week 1 |
I love the 'Skins getting 4, and leaning towards the Bengals as a pk right now. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Tue Sep 02, 2008 7:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: NFL Week 1 |
This week's Power Sweep download: http://www.zshare.net/download/180925448ac1eb17/ |
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| Author: | Colonel Angus [ Tue Sep 02, 2008 7:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: NFL Week 1 |
Brady's going to play,they said on PTI. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Tue Sep 02, 2008 10:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: NFL Week 1 |
A guy on another board I frequent keeps NFL power ratings and after watching his numbers last year, I believe in their value. However, as we learned from my college numbers in week 1, they don't play the games on paper. I wouldn't use this as the only tool to make a play, but I think it's useful. PR = Power Rating Wk 1 = Line for this week's game using these PRs and 3 points for home field Line = Posted line +/- = Difference between this line and the posted line 
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Tue Sep 02, 2008 11:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: NFL Week 1 |
Coast2Coast wrote: A few thoughts to kick off week 1: Thursday:Fading the Super Bowl champion is usually a profitable endeavor, not just in week 1, but season-long. I'll try to find that data. Super Bowl Champions over-priced in game 1? Of course. Add to that the fact that the Skins could not have looked worse the last two weeks of the pre. However, I am having a hard time finding any power ratings systems that would have the Giants favored by 3.5 on the road in this week 1 game. This line is set purely based on public perception. Skins looking ugly and the Giants are the champs laying 3.5 on the road? You know which side I'll be on.... Sunday:Joe Flacco starting at QB for Baltimore? That will help move the number up for the home puppies. They could be dogs of 3 or more by kick. How sweet would that be? Is there any less deserving team to be road favorites than Cincinnati? Is there any other NFL team that may be more ripe for a total implosion than the Bungles this year? Both of these teams will be pretty bad this year, so going against the one laying points on the road isn't a bad approach. Home dog #2 if the price is right. Is Brady going to play? No line on NE-Chiefs because of that. Brady is one of the few guys in the league that I'd actually move the line 4 points based on him playing or not. Super Bowl champs are 84-83-9 the next season since 1997. That's slightly deceptive though, as New England went 11-3-2 on their way to their second straight super bowl in 2004. Super Bowl champs are 6-4-1 in the past 11 seasons first game back, and 6-0-1 in the past seven seasons. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Tue Sep 02, 2008 11:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: NFL Week 1 |
BTW, this sounds crazy, but I want to go on record in saying that Baltimore wins the AFC North this year. Love them against Cincy week one. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Wed Sep 03, 2008 12:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: NFL Week 1 |
I like Baltimore too. Only thing that gives me pause is a rookie QB (from Div IAA Delaware no less). Doubtful he has seen pressure and coverages as he will see Sunday. He is home though. I'm sure rookies in game 1 aren't solid plays, but I expect rookies in their first road game are even worse. Flacco and Ryan are two rookies starting, but both are at home this week. Thanks for the SB update. Nothing like holding on to old, outdated notions.  News flash: Cell phones, pagers and laptops are now legal for use in Vegas casinos. The Nevada gaming commission changed the law last week. So now, we can sit in a Vegas book and bet online. Or call our messengers sitting in other books to jump on the best numbers as they change. The Gaming Commission said that if they see an increase in runners, they will ban them again. Enjoy it while it lasts. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Wed Sep 03, 2008 12:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: NFL Week 1 |
I had read that on a horse forum. I can't see it lasting, especially because it also applied to laptops, and guys will start betting through rebate shops where they can from the book. Have you taken a look at the database, Coast? |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Wed Sep 03, 2008 8:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: NFL Week 1 |
I have looked at the database. I'm used to combing through annuals for some of this information, but you have more in there than most books do. Andit's very useful to have it in an excel sheet I can sort. I haven't used it much yet, but I will. |
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| Author: | SHARK [ Wed Sep 03, 2008 11:58 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: NFL Week 1 |
Is anyone aware that the Chiefs/Patriots' opener in New England is currently OFF the board?  I think the Pats were 14 point faves at home before it suddenly got removed. Does it have to do with Tom Brady's health? Just wondering...
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Wed Sep 03, 2008 12:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: NFL Week 1 |
Coast, are you running the same contest from last year on Ryan's board. If so, what is the name of the site? Old age is beginning to set in. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: NFL Week 1 |
No I haven't been on Ryan's board since January or so. You want to do that again here? There already is one contest on this board, but I'd be happy to do it if you like. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: NFL Week 1 |
SHARK wrote: Is anyone aware that the Chiefs/Patriots' opener in New England is currently OFF the board? I think the Pats were 14 point faves at home before it suddenly got removed. Does it have to do with Tom Brady's health? Just wondering...Yes we were aware of that (see first post in this thread), but it's back on the board now. It opened at 15.5, then went off the board due to the uncertainty. It's now 15.5-17, depending on where you shop (5 Dimes is the only one offering 17). It's 16 at most places. If anyone is interested in seeing all the offshore numbers on every game, see: lines.sbrlines.com |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: NFL Week 1 |
Coast2Coast wrote: No I haven't been on Ryan's board since January or so. You want to do that again here? There already is one contest on this board, but I'd be happy to do it if you like. Sure. I thought it was fun |
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| Author: | muman89 [ Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: NFL Week 1 |
I too would love to see the contest come back. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: NFL Week 1 |
It's back. And so is Brady, but for how long. He is hurt. He is clearly favoring the leg in drills and the word is that he is injured badly enough that he needs surgery, but he has elected to gut it out and play...as long as he can anyway. Will this affect the game plan and lead to a more run-oriented Pats attack? The 16 is based on last year's Pats vs. Chiefs. Will we get the same Pats and the same Brady as last year in week 1? Will Hurricane Hannah be up the coast in Boston on Sunday, driving down the total? Is under the play here and should I play that now rather than wait for the weather to be more certain and the total to drop dramatically? So many questions... http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/200 ... oken-bone/ |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: NFL Week 1 |
Bumping the thread just for those of you who missed the Power Sweep link posted early in the week and wanted to read Phil Steele's weekly thoughts. Power Sweep download link: http://www.zshare.net/download/180925448ac1eb17/ |
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