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NFL Week 2
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Author:  Chus [ Wed Sep 10, 2008 11:43 am ]
Post subject:  NFL Week 2
New Orleans pickem
Author:  Irish Boy [ Wed Sep 10, 2008 11:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NFL Week 2
Will repost on Donspiracy's list later:

Minnesota +2 vs. Indy
Cleveland +6 vs. Pittsburgh
St. Louis +8.5 vs. NYG

Also, not NFL, but just collecting my thoughts before the repost:

ND +2 vs. Michigan
Tulane +13 vs. ECU
North Carolina +5.5 at Rutgers
Author:  Chus [ Thu Sep 11, 2008 8:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: NFL Week 2
NFL
New Orleans pickem

NCAA
Buffalo U -6
Iowa State +14
Akron +7
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NFL Week 2
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the company that puts together power ratings and gives line guidance to most casinos in setting their lines each week. LVSC sends out their lines to casinos, and while casinos are under no obligation to follow the LVSC recommendations, they are one very important piece of the puzzle casinos use in setting their lines.

Here are this week's power ratings that were sent out from LVSC to the casino books this week. They closely reflect the actual lines (add 3 points to the home team) but not entirely. There are a few games in which the books apparently have a somewhat different view (perhaps based on player psychology) than LVSC. As individual bettors, our own power ratings may differ from LVSC's or the books'. Nonetheless, I think it's one important piece of information in capping the NFL.

Image
Author:  Andy Dufresne [ Thu Sep 11, 2008 5:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NFL Week 2
I struggle with JAX - they are missing 4 offensive line starters. That's a big power ranking for them.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Thu Sep 11, 2008 9:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NFL Week 2
Yes it is. I don't have Jax quite that high. If you heard the audio links I've posted previously with the interviews with Kenny WHite, you know he doesn't like to increase or decrease a team by more than 2 points or so after any one game. But the Pats downgrade is amazing. You ever wonder how much a star player is worth to the line? I took the Pats down 4 for Brady on my PRs. There is no other player in the league for which I would do that. I would take the Colts down 2.5 for Manning, etc. Check it out: LVSC took the Pats down 6.7 points. Ergo, a 7 point difference in this week's line with/without Brady. I've been doing this a long time. I've never seen a 7 point move off one injury. So by LVSC numbers, they are making the Jets -2.5 this week. The books went one tick more and opened Jets -3. But the sharps have bought the Pats and moved the number down to Jets -1. That equates to about a 5.5 point move on the Pats after Brady. That's more reasonable than the opening 7.5 point move, but still a tad high IMO. Early sharp birds got that worm. But that's just value as I see it. Whether it's real value on the field remains to be seen of course. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Joe Public buy Ba Ba Ba Bretty and the Jets and drive that number back toward 3 on Sunday.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Thu Sep 11, 2008 9:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NFL Week 2
Coast2Coast wrote:
Yes it is. I don't have Jax quite that high. If you heard the audio links I've posted previously with the interviews with Kenny WHite, you know he doesn't like to increase or decrease a team by more than 2 points or so after any one game. But the Pats downgrade is amazing. You ever wonder how much a star player is worth to the line? I took the Pats down 4 for Brady on my PRs. There is no other player in the league for which I would do that. I would take the Colts down 2.5 for Manning, etc. Check it out: LVSC took the Pats down 6.7 points. Ergo, a 7 point difference in this week's line with/without Brady. I've been doing this a long time. I've never seen a 7 point move off one injury. So by LVSC numbers, they are making the Jets -2.5 this week. The books went one tick more and opened Jets -3. But the sharps have bought the Pats and moved the number down to Jets -1. That equates to about a 5 point move on the Pats after Brady. That's more reasonable than the opening 7.5 point move. Early sharp birds got that worm. But that's just value as I see it. Whether it's real value on the field remains to be seen of course. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Joe Public buy Bretty and the Jets and drive that number back toward 3 on Sunday.


I was going to ask you about that, because I've read you say that no player should adjust a power ranking or valuation by more than 4 points in the NFL. I've been waiting to see whether that line moves back towards NYJ. I say no way it ends up actually being three, but 2.5 could be.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Thu Sep 11, 2008 9:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NFL Week 2
My guess is the sharps who wanted in got in at 3. Sharps that move lines play % and #s. They aren't the kind of people to keep buying a team after the best price is gone...particularly once it has moved off the 3. My hunch is all the price pressure in this game will come from Joe Public Jets buyers. Like watching a technical chart on a common stock, the book knows there will be significant resistance if it hits 3 again. I agree with you. It won't get back there.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NFL Week 2
Sorry I forgot to post the Power Sweep download link for this week. here it is
http://www.zshare.net/download/18472894db5547c8/
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