No Chris, they don't. And you don't either. Enjoy your acorn.
I recognize it's far from done, GD. I never suggested it wasn't. And I also recognize most of the guys on this board pick games based on opinions about the teams and the sports and don't pay attention to probabilities or expected value. I wasn't basing my play on the season record. I was basing it on the line value. The line opened at -145/+135. Based on the math and the linesmakers' history of hanging good numbers in the playoffs, I thought that was a fair price. But when the donkeys pushed it up to -155/+145 and then as high as -163/+153, I thought there was value in the dog as there often is. If I can bet games at 13 percent better than the opening line as I did here, I will take that proposition 95% of the time (assuming full information) in any sport. If you want to make the case that the books hung a bad opening number and that +153 was the right price, I'd like to know what data you would use to make that case. So I lost one. If I have a 13% discount to the opening number, I will fire away at that as often as I possibly can because in the long run, that is a very profitable strategy.
|
