Never in doubt.
Gotta love those sweet middles.
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| Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=25939 |
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| Author: | donspiracy [ Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
***Note CFB games Tues. and Thurs.*** This weekly wagering contest will reward the best football prognosticator with a $100 gift certificate from a meat/steak company. New guys can still join in any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. Post them all at once or in separate posts, but they must be posted in the current week's contest thread. Post your plays any time, but they must be posted before a game you are playing kicks off. You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick. Minimum 50 picks to qualify by the end of the contest. ______________ThisWeek___Total______% BoilermakerRick__2-2________9-2_______82 Rocks and Blows_0-0________2-1_______67 Albert Hofmann__0-0________21-12-2___64 Evergreen Tommy_7-4-1______7-4-1_____64 Hawkeye Vince___2-4________23-15_____61 Bud Dude________10-4_______58-43-1___57 Coast2Coast______6-9________47-36-3___57 DarrenTinleyPark__4-2________28-21-3___57 shultzyy_________5-6________30-23-4___57 Chus____________10-14-1____84-67-6___56 sabu____________8-3________29-24_____55 Colonel Angus____16-9-2_____87-76-6___53 donspiracy_______10-5-1_____46-41-3___53 Irish Boy_________0-0________21-19-1___53 WaltWilliamsNeck__8-4-1______43-40-3___52 RFDC____________4-5________42-40-2___51 good dolphin______2-5________37-35_____51 newper__________4-4-1______20-20-3___50 Nas_____________12-12______18-18_____50 reents___________4-5________52-53-1___49.5 muman89_________2-4________30-31-4___49 schmitty1121_____9-6________56-63-5___47 MattMurtonsBeard_0-0________9-11______45 a retard__________0-0________4-5_______44 City of Fools______0-0________3-4_______43 M_C_____________0-0________18-29-1___38 At Large__________0-0________0-1_______0 OverallStandings CFBWeek 1 60-43___58.3% NFLWeek 1 87-78-9_52.7 NFLWeek 2 86-70-9_55.1 NFLWeek 3 101-103-5_49.5 NFLWeek 4 83-79-4_51.3 NFLWeek 5 84-65-9_56.4 NELWeek 6 91-89-5_50.6 NFLWeek 7 102-96-1_51.5 NFLWeek 8 125-107-7_53.9 _Total__819-730-49_52.9 Please let me know if any of the totals are incorrect. Thank you. Early CFB Action ALL TIMES CENTRAL Tuesday, October 28, 2008 6:00 PM Buffalo (3-4, 1-2 MAC) at Ohio (2-6, 1-3 MAC) 7:00 PM Houston (4-3, 3-0 C-USA) at Marshall (3-4, 2-1 C-USA) Thursday, October 30, 2008 6:30 PM (23) South Florida (6-2, 1-2 Big East) at Cincinnati (5-2, 1-1 Big East) Late CFB Action ALL TIMES CENTRAL Saturday, November 1, 2008 8:05 PM Rice (5-3, 4-1 C-USA) at UTEP (3-4, 3-1 C-USA) 8:30 PM (10) Utah (8-0, 4-0 MWC) at New Mexico (4-5, 2-3 MWC) 9:15 PM Arizona St (2-5, 1-3 Pac-10) at Oregon St (4-3, 3-1 Pac-10) Sunday, November 2, 2008 7:15 PM East Carolina (4-3, 2-1 C-USA) at UCF (2-5, 1-2 C-USA) |
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| Author: | Chus [ Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
NCAA Buffalo +2.5 WIN Buffalo/Ohio under 50 LOSS Houston/Marshall under 62 WIN Marshall +7.5 WIN South Florida -2 LOSS South Florida/Cincinnati under 51 WIN Western Kentucky -10 (1st half) LOSS Tulsa/Arkansas under 76 WIN Texas A&M -3.5 WIN California -2 WIN Mississippi State -2 LOSS Utah State +7 WIN Texas -3 LOSS Oklahoma -21 WIN 9-5 NFL Houston +5.5 LOSS NY Jets +5 WIN Lions/Bears over 43 WIN Dallas/NY Giants under 21 (1st half) LOSS Philadelphia/Seattle over 43 LOSS New England +7 WIN Washington -1 Pittsburgh/Washington over 36.5 3-3 |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Tue Oct 28, 2008 8:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Dallas Cowboys +9 @ NY Giants Line value; over-reaction to Romo injury. Miami Dolphins +3.5 @ Denver A little value and two teams moving in opposite directions. Broncos D in the bottom two in the league, making them a soft favorite. |
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| Author: | donspiracy [ Tue Oct 28, 2008 9:41 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Week 10 Tuesday Night Is Alright For Football Buffalo +1 1/2 @ Ohio (50 1/2) Wow is this a bad game. 5 combined wins by these two teams are against: UTEP, Temple, and Army for Buffalo. Virginia Military and Kent State for Ohio. Ohio has already played six games on the road. Buffalo is winless on the road, but score about 30 a game. Both teams pass happy since both run games are ranked in the 90's. Not dismayed by windy and frozen precip. in SE Ohio tonight. Take the over. Houston -7 1/2 @ Marshall (62 1/2) Case Keenum Houston QB will bring 30 passes and 400 yards to the hills of West Virginny. Marshall will get least eight kickoffs to improve scoring 19.1 ppg. 102nd in the nation. Marshall scored more than 20 in three of their seven games (2-1). Houston Freshman Bryce Beall RB has three straight 100-yard games. Cougars will do fine in a breeze. Marshall gets a couple extra chances to get 20 points. Houston can tally 45. Take the over. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Tue Oct 28, 2008 12:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Marshall +7.5 |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Tue Oct 28, 2008 4:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Houston-Marshall UNDER 31, 1st half Houston-Marshall UNDER 62, Game Taking an under in a CUSA game requires a bit of balls (or absence of brains) but that's why they call it investing. Or gambling. It's a lousy night for a football game in Huntingdon, West Va. No snow yet, but scattered flurries and snow showers in the forecast. Right now, it's just cold (low 31 expected) with..most importantly...winds at 10 to 20 mph. Cold and windy for a team from Houston...and a Houston team that has started slowly in several games this year. The home crowd will be way down from the old days when Marshall fans packed the stadium. The town is really down on this coach and team. There will be fans, but with the cold weather, I wouldn't expect a houseful of screaming greenies. Thus, while this is a classic nationally televised midweek home dog spot, and with a warm weather team playing in the cold no less, I'm not taking THIS home dog. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Tue Oct 28, 2008 5:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
This week's Power Sweep download http://www.zshare.net/download/505847838d8eb15d/ |
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| Author: | Colonel Angus [ Tue Oct 28, 2008 6:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Never mind... |
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| Author: | Colonel Angus [ Tue Oct 28, 2008 6:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Pinnacle Sports 11/1 Air Force -8.5 Louisville -14 Virginia -2.5 UConn +4 Minnesota -6.5 Duke +7.5 Mizzou -20 SD St. +5 E. Michigan +18 Texas A&M -3.5 Notre Dame -4.5 Hawaii -7 UGA +5 USC -44 Oregon +3 Navy -7 Texas Tech +3.5 UK +3 GT -2.5 TCU -14 Rice -2.5 11/2 Browns -1 Bears -13 Falcons -3 Eagles -7 11/3 Skins -1 |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Tue Oct 28, 2008 8:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Houston-Marshall OVER 28 2nd half First half under is a winner, but offenses are warming up and left a lot of points on the board. Houston D has been on the field alot. With the game under 62 in play, this sets up a 15 point middle. Houston -6.5, 2nd half Down 16-3 at half, the Cougar has been a solid second half team this year. To wit: 30-17, 42-0, 20-14 (as a 2nd half dog), 22-7, 21-14. 7.5 point favorite doesn't even have to win the game to cover this. Just lose by 6 or less. I think they make a game of it. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Tue Oct 28, 2008 8:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Like it Coast. I am jumping on board with a small play as well. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Tue Oct 28, 2008 10:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Never in doubt. Gotta love those sweet middles.
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| Author: | RFDC [ Tue Oct 28, 2008 10:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Dallas +9.5 Pittsburgh +1 St. Louis +3 ________________ West Virginia -4 Missouri -20 Florida -5 Washington +44 Kansas State +11 Texas -3.5 Florida State +2.5 |
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| Author: | Chus [ Wed Oct 29, 2008 9:55 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
South Florida -2 |
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| Author: | schmitty1121 [ Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Illinois -2.5 South Carolina -6 Texas -3.5 Purdue -2 Jets +5.5 Cardinals -2.5 Packers +5.5 Broncos -3 Eagles -7 Patriots +5.5 Redskins -1 |
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| Author: | reents [ Wed Oct 29, 2008 7:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
South Florida -2.5 vs Cincinnati- South Florida needs the win more or it would be their 3rd loss in the conference. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 8:56 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
South Florida/Cincinnati under 51 |
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| Author: | donspiracy [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 8:57 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Week 10 Top 25 Rundown Thursday, October 30, 2008 South Florida -2 1/2 @ Cincinnati USF will get more tha 8 yards rushing this week. Cincinatti QB has a broken arm although their two losses were Oklahoma and @ Uconn last week. Saturday, November 1, 2008 Texas -3 1/2 @ Texas Tech For the Red Raiders, it's the second of four straight games against ranked foes. Texas has averaged 48.0 points in winning five straight against Texas Tech. The total is 75. 100 point game? Texas gave about 30 in the last three games. Arkansas State @ Alabama -23 How did team Saban slip in a Sun Belt team? The Tide won't repeat last year's 21-14 defeat at home to Louisiana-Monroe. Ark. St. has a top 20 Offense but can't handle this step up in class. Nebraska @ Oklahoma -21 1/2 Fiddy! But, not in the first half this week. Nebraksa can score thirty, when giving up twice as many points. Enjoy the Holiday Bowl Husker fan. Washington +45 @ USC Can't pick all the favorites. Total is 57. Florida @ Georgia +6 in Jacksonville, Fla. Georgia Bulldog hmmm... Look for pre-game fight and lots of celebration penalties. On the undercard, Florida State is playing Georgia Tech this weekend. Iowa State @ Oklahoma State -30 1/2 Iowa St has given up 35+ the last five games. OSU will beat up the soft Cyclones. Utah @ New Mexico +7 1/2 Lobos RB's grinds the clock and makes the Utes play the whole game. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 2:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Western Kentucky -10 (1st half) |
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| Author: | Evergreen Tommy [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 8:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Bama -22.5 WIN - playing a cupcake Illini -2.5 WIN - playing a cupcake (no offense Vince) Purdue -1.5 WIN - I just don't like michigan Texas Tech +4 WIN - I like top 10 teams that are home dogs |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 8:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Question for the class: When a team opens at +7 or +6.5 at most outs and then moves to +4, as Texas Tech did this week....at what point does a bettor say this team is unbettable after such a line move? If the linesmaker believed fair value was 6.5, are bettors who are playing this team at +4 thinking that the linesmaker, in week 10 of the college season, was off by 30% in setting this number? |
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| Author: | donspiracy [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 9:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Heavy early action on TT. The math says Texas can't run the OU, MIzzou, OSU, TT table. TT looks like a straight-up winner. The Texas number could have moved to -10 if it was getting pounded. Vegas doesn't use good dolphin's guy. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 10:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
I have no problem with people liking TT. And you nailed one of the fundamental reasons they may cover this week. That's not my issue. Picking winners is an individual thing. It's the price. I understand that prices move with demand, but at some point, teams become unbettable. If somebody liked TT, why the hell didn't they buy them Monday at a 30% lower price? Would you buy a car, house, or anything of value at a 30% higher price today than you could have bought it for on Monday? Then why would you buy a football team that way? There is a precedent I suppose. Some people buy stocks only after they have risen substantially in a short period of time. They follow the herd thinking the herd must be right. Some people have that mindset I guess. I just don't understand it. It's hard enough to win without giving 30% away in the price. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 11:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Saturday Minnesota golden gophers -7 vs. Northwestern Arkansas +7 vs. Tulsa Baylor +21 vs. Missouri Nebraska +21-1/2 vs. Oklahoma Florida State - Georgia Tech UNDER 42 Sunday Dolphins +3 @ Denver, 1st half Dolphins are my favorite play for Sunday and I've already got them at +3.5 for the game. So when the Greek wants to give me +3 just for the first half, I'm not one to decline that kind of value. |
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| Author: | Brick [ Fri Oct 31, 2008 12:00 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Central Michigan +2 vs. Indiana -Still think Indiana is terrible, even if they won last week Purdue -1.5 vs. Michigan -I've tried to talk myself out of this many times but I just can't do it. This game is won by Purdue's defense and controlling the clock by running the ball. Wisconsin +5.5 vs. Michigan State -It may be outdated thinking with a new coach, but the MSU I know put so much into beating a bad Michigan team that I see them coming out flat in this one. Minnesota -7 vs. Northwestern -I'm assuming that Bacher doesn't play, and I don't think he will. |
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| Author: | Evergreen Tommy [ Fri Oct 31, 2008 6:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Coast2Coast wrote: I have no problem with people liking TT. And you nailed one of the fundamental reasons they may cover this week. That's not my issue. Picking winners is an individual thing. It's the price. I understand that prices move with demand, but at some point, teams become unbettable. If somebody liked TT, why the hell didn't they buy them Monday at a 30% lower price? Would you buy a car, house, or anything of value at a 30% higher price today than you could have bought it for on Monday? Then why would you buy a football team that way? There is a precedent I suppose. Some people buy stocks only after they have risen substantially in a short period of time. They follow the herd thinking the herd must be right. Some people have that mindset I guess. I just don't understand it. It's hard enough to win without giving 30% away in the price. In my case I took them at +4 because I just looked at the lines last night and did not know they were +7 to +6.5. Plus at this point it didn't matter to me because I think TT will win the game. So I guess the answer, for me, to your original question is when the line move to TT -2 |
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| Author: | Darren - Tinley Park [ Fri Oct 31, 2008 3:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
From thegreek.com: Minnesota (-7) over Northwestern With my apologies to MUD and NSJ, the Gophers are at home and too many injuries for the Wildcats. Illinois (-2.5) over Iowa With additional apologies to Hawkeye and Hawkeye Vince, I'm a little scared to be picking the Illini after their recent failures, but I think they should win by a field goal at home. Nebraska / Oklahoma (Under 71) Somebody has to play defense in this game. Right???? Atlanta (-3) over Oakland The Falcons come in refreshed off the bye week. Green Bay / Tennessee (Over 40.5) The Packers have too much offense to have the over that low. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Fri Oct 31, 2008 4:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Tulsa/Arkansas under 76 Texas A&M -3.5 California -2 Mississippi State -2 |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Fri Oct 31, 2008 4:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Coast2Coast wrote: I have no problem with people liking TT. And you nailed one of the fundamental reasons they may cover this week. That's not my issue. Picking winners is an individual thing. It's the price. I understand that prices move with demand, but at some point, teams become unbettable. If somebody liked TT, why the hell didn't they buy them Monday at a 30% lower price? Would you buy a car, house, or anything of value at a 30% higher price today than you could have bought it for on Monday? Then why would you buy a football team that way? There is a precedent I suppose. Some people buy stocks only after they have risen substantially in a short period of time. They follow the herd thinking the herd must be right. Some people have that mindset I guess. I just don't understand it. It's hard enough to win without giving 30% away in the price. I agree in part and disagree in part. Three points is a pretty substanial move, regardless of what numbers it crosses over. I would be very reluctant to play on the short end after a move that large for the reason you mentioned. I wouldn't play Texas Tech this week, although I will be rooting for them and I do think they have a very substantial chance. Where I disagree is that I really don't make too much out of half point or even point moves, unless it crosses three. Even two point moves don't scare me in the abstract, as long as +3 doesn't get crossed. Here's my theory: a lot of people are really, really good at fundamental analysis of games. Vegas has a ton of them. They create a number that is more or less accurate more times than not. A lot of times, I don't think they have a very firm position, so if the money is lopsided, they'll go ahead and start moving it to balance things out. This is especially true when the money is coming in hard on the underdog; that tends to scare the books, from what I can tell, and I think they come to regard that number as inaccurate. So let's take a game where a line opens +6.5, the underdog gets 70% of the money, and the books move the line to +4.5. I know there's some value lost in the move, but in my mind there's value gained for me, personally, knowing that Vegas was willing to move this line. They're not confident. At the same time, there are limits to how far they realistically can move the line; they don't want to lose on both ends of the equation. In that circumstance, I'd much rather bet the underdog at +4.5 than the favorite, even if I could have had the underdog at +6.5 a couple of days ago. In other words, for me at least: Value from knowing what the books think about a game > the value of those two points. As I said above, there are exceptions, and I'd almost never cross 3 to 2.5 or 3.5 to 3, just because there is so much value in that number. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Fri Oct 31, 2008 4:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 9 |
Quote: They follow the herd thinking the herd must be right. One last point: in the above instance, I wouldn't play because I think the herd is right; I'd play because I think the books are right, tried to shade the favorite, and now are in "cover your ass" mode. An even stronger play, for me anyway, would be a situation where 70% of the public is betting on Team A and the line doesn't budge. Team B is a strong contender (this played out last night beautifully with South Florida/Cincinatti). |
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