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| Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=27239 |
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| Author: | donspiracy [ Tue Dec 09, 2008 5:41 am ] |
| Post subject: | Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
***College Regular Season Over, Bowls Start Sat. Dec. 20th.*** ***Saints v. Bears Thursday Night*** check local listings This weekly wagering contest will reward the best football prognosticator with a $100 gift certificate from a meat/steak company. New guys can still join in any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. Post them all at once or in separate posts, but they must be posted in the current week's contest thread. Post your plays any time, but they must be posted before a game you are playing kicks off. You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick. Minimum 50 picks to qualify by the end of the contest. ***Note: There are 3 weeks left of NFL regular season games. The final week of the contest will be college only, Dec.30-Jan.8. The final game is the matchup of Big 12 Champ Oklahoma Sooners against the SEC Champ Florida Gators, who are around 3 point favorites from what I see. The total is 70+. Good Luck everybody! ______________ThisWeek____Total______% Rocks and Blows__0-0________2-1_______67 BoilermakerRick___0-0________26-14-1___65 Albert Hofmann___0-0________21-12-2___64 Nas____________19-12-1____99-75-4___56.9 good dolphin_____7-5________66-50-1___56.9 Hawkeye Vince___4-2________44-35_____55.7 DarrenTinleyPark__2-8________52-42-4___55.3 WaltWilliamsNeck__4-2________68-57-3___54.4 Irish Boy_________6-5________31-26-2___54.4 Chus____________11-5_______149-126-8_54.2 Bud Dude________5-6________99-86-1___53.5 Evergreen Tommy_0-0________26-23-2___53.1 schmitty1121_____6-4________95-89-7___51.6 shultzyy_________0-0________49-47-4___51.0 Coast2Coast_____1-3________64-62-4___50.8 sabu____________3-3________46-45-1___50.5 RFDC____________2-6________75-74-2___50.4 donspiracy_______9-13_______77-77-5___50.0 muman89_________0-0________45-45-5__50.0 newper__________0-0________32-32-3___50.0 MattMurtonsBeard_0-0________20-20_____50 reents___________8-5________80-84-1___48.8 Colonel Angus_____0-0________140-153-9_47.8 a retard__________0-0________4-5_______44 City of Fools______0-0________3-4_______43 M_C_____________0-0________18-29-1___38 At Large__________0-0________0-1_______0 OverallStandings CFBWeek 1 60-43_____58.3% NFLWeek 1 87-78-9___52.7 NFLWeek 2 86-70-9___55.1 NFLWeek 3 101-103-5_49.5 NFLWeek 4 83-79-4___51.3 NFLWeek 5 84-65-9___56.4 NFLWeek 6 91-89-5___50.6 NFLWeek 7 102-96-1__51.5 NFLWeek 8 125-107-7_53.9 NFLWeek 9 110-106-2_50.9 NFLWeek10 83-99-8___45.6 NFLWeek11 116-111-1_51.1 NFLWeek12 90-96-7___48.4 NFLWeek13 121-89-2__57.6 NFLWeek14 87-79-1___52.4 _Total_1426-1310-70__52.1 Please let me know if any of the totals are incorrect. Thank you. Early NFL Action ALL TIMES CENTRAL Thursday, December 11, 2008 check local listings 7:15 PM New Orleans (7-6, 1-5 away) at Chicago (7-6, 4-2 home) |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Tue Dec 09, 2008 9:56 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Don, I appreciate the work you are doing. I would like to suggest that the bowls and NFL playoffs be completely seperated from this contest. Bears against Saints OVER 44 I don't see either team holding the other below 20 points. It's supposed to be cold Thursday, but the only thing that could keep this under is wind. I expect this one to play in the 60s. Bears -3 against Saints Saints are 1-5 on the road this year. They have crapped the bed the last two seasons coming into Chicago under similar conditions with virtually the same players. Their defense has been ravaged by injury and suspension. It's hard to pick against those trends. Nas sucking is a bonus to all this other info. Falcons -3 against Bucs Home teams are 24-3 in NFC South games. It's hard to go against that trend. Bucs also coming off a short week. Jets -7.5 against Bills A Bills player vehemently denied the team has quit on Dick Juron...which of course means they have. Jets coming off bad back to back losses...but Bills coming off back to back games of scoring 3 points agains the mighty Brown and Dolphin defenses. I say the Jets shut them out and put up more than enough to cover. Titans -3 at Texans This Texans rebirth has been brought to you by a Jax team that has quit and a woefull Packer D...and they could have lost both of those games. I'm glad they have won as it makes this line more attractive. Schaub is always happy to turn the ball over and I expect to see at least two picks by the Titans who win it in a walk. Cardinals -3 against Vikings Interesting trend of teams after playing detriot going 1-10 against the spread. That aside, the strenght of the Vikings is in their run D, except the Cardinals really don't want to run. I think this sets up perfectly as the Vikings will have to try to win a shootout on the arm of Tavarious Jackson. Giants +3 at Cowboys For all the publicity and noise they make, the Cowboys are really not that good of a team. TO is bitching and I promise you this will become a racial thing by the time it all shakes out. Dissension and a Giant running game will break their spirit. |
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| Author: | donspiracy [ Tue Dec 09, 2008 10:16 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
good dolphin wrote: Don, I appreciate the work you are doing. I would like to suggest that the bowls and NFL playoffs be completely seperated from this contest. Thanks for the kind words. There will be no action taken for the NFL playoffs in the contest. There are only 48 regular season games left for the NFL. It's plausable for somebody who hasn't made any picks yet to still will the contest. 30-20 brings a 60% clip, which would put anyone on top of the leaderboard. Boilermaker Rick has been playing only college this year, but still needs 9 more picks to qualify. Wouldn't want to cut him out. Or make him pick NFL games. I'm far from an expert, but for me picking the NFL games straight up for a confidence pool is maddening enough, and then try and pick against the number is throwing darts for me. Like the NFL totals, every week there is only a spread of ten points at most for the whole card. Too close to call. There are 34 bowl games. The games in play for the week will be posted at the bottom of the leaderboard. And I'll open another post in the weekly thread to keep track of everybodys picks. In conclusion, NFL playoffs are out. Bowl games are in, and the last week will be ten days as the BCS game is on Thursday(?!?!) Jan. 8th. Thanks for playing. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Tue Dec 09, 2008 12:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
donspiracy wrote: [ 30-20 brings a 60% clip, which would put anyone on top of the leaderboard. Boilermaker Rick has been playing only college this year, but still needs 9 more picks to qualify. Wouldn't want to cut him out. Or make him pick NFL games. . The way I see it, very few have posted analysis with picks, which is clearly not in conformity with the rules. Hand that gift certificate over. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Tue Dec 09, 2008 12:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
My analysis is the same for every pick, and I got tired of repeating myself after Week 3. |
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| Author: | Brick [ Tue Dec 09, 2008 1:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
donspiracy wrote: Boilermaker Rick has been playing only college this year, but still needs 9 more picks to qualify. Wouldn't want to cut him out. Or make him pick NFL games. My NFL picks are premium picks and only released on www.dontmatewithme.com. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Tue Dec 09, 2008 1:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
I rarely do any write-ups, because I don't see how one can make a pick based on one sentence. In fact, some of the one sentence write-ups here, are as ridiculous as Ferrall's (my boy Bobby Cremins is getting involved, or they have covered for us before, so let's ride them again). There are many reasons why I make my picks, and I don't feel like writing a paragraph or more about why I like a particular line or side. Anything that I post here, I am playing. One thing that I have learned this year, is to take a step back with the NFL. I do much better in college, and I will mostly stick to that next year. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Tue Dec 09, 2008 1:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Chus wrote: I rarely do any write-ups, because I don't see how one can make a pick based on one sentence. . For the purposes of this contest I really don't care about analysis. Judge people on simple winning percentage. I'd like to see what a person is thinking for personal use. Like yesterday, I picked the Panthers largely on the record of NFC South home teams. One sentence. Concise. Use it as you will. The ultimate answer is do your own capping, and that should always be done. But, on the other hand, someone may have particular knowledge of the situation or feel strongly for a reason and that would be nice to see. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Tue Dec 09, 2008 3:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
My rationale (if you care) is almost always the following: Any team I bet is getting less that 40% of the money online (usually 30% or less) and the books have not moved the lines, or have moved them in the opposite direction. I usually regard the huge spreads (3 TDs or more) that you see in college and regard the games as unplayable, even if the money is skewed. I think that every pick I've made for this contest has been by that rationale. I don't consider any trend or data outside of that. It's gotten me to 54.4%, so considering that it takes about 15 minutes to come up with my picks per week, that's not too shabby. |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Tue Dec 09, 2008 5:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
good dolphin wrote: donspiracy wrote: [ 30-20 brings a 60% clip, which would put anyone on top of the leaderboard. Boilermaker Rick has been playing only college this year, but still needs 9 more picks to qualify. Wouldn't want to cut him out. Or make him pick NFL games. . The way I see it, very few have posted analysis with picks, which is clearly not in conformity with the rules. Hand that gift certificate over. I'm knocking at your back door with analysis week in and week out....I think you like that. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Tue Dec 09, 2008 6:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Nas wrote: good dolphin wrote: donspiracy wrote: [ 30-20 brings a 60% clip, which would put anyone on top of the leaderboard. Boilermaker Rick has been playing only college this year, but still needs 9 more picks to qualify. Wouldn't want to cut him out. Or make him pick NFL games. . The way I see it, very few have posted analysis with picks, which is clearly not in conformity with the rules. Hand that gift certificate over. I've won more games than you and I started late. The rules haven't been followed for years. I used to post my thought with each pick but after seeing very few people do the same thing I stopped doing it. don't get too big chested my friend, same percentage and I give analysis everyone else is doing it hasn't worked since grade school...and I wrote, for purposes of this contest I don't care. I want analysis for my own use. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Tue Dec 09, 2008 8:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Already tailing me, I see. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Tue Dec 09, 2008 8:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Hawkeye Vince wrote: good dolphin wrote: donspiracy wrote: [ 30-20 brings a 60% clip, which would put anyone on top of the leaderboard. Boilermaker Rick has been playing only college this year, but still needs 9 more picks to qualify. Wouldn't want to cut him out. Or make him pick NFL games. . The way I see it, very few have posted analysis with picks, which is clearly not in conformity with the rules. Hand that gift certificate over. I'm knocking at your back door with analysis week in and week out....I think you like that. Oh, it's weak alright. Don, can you start a new thread for this week. Too much grab assing is going to taint my picks. Get it...taint. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Wed Dec 10, 2008 9:08 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Now you are going to make me go contrarian and take the Beloved. You may not believe in Bear weather but Panther weather, Buc weather, Falcon weather etc. has brought the Saints to 1-5 on the road. |
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| Author: | BD [ Wed Dec 10, 2008 12:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Nas wrote: Saints +3 Over 44.5 The weather should benefit the Bears but that won't be the case. The Bears haven't proven that they can stop the pass and this late in the season I doubt they will. Brees with have a big game in the air and Pierre Thomas will continue proving why Deuce is expendable. Saints win 31-23 This is about what I was thinking as well. |
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| Author: | reents [ Wed Dec 10, 2008 9:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Saints and Bears over 44.5- I see this being a scorefest, as the Saints offense can put up points, but may not be able to stop the Bears, maybe about 27-24. |
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| Author: | newper [ Thu Dec 11, 2008 8:40 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
AZ Cardinals -3 |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Bears Saints the ova 45.5 |
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| Author: | schmitty1121 [ Thu Dec 11, 2008 5:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Saints +3 |
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| Author: | Bud Dude [ Thu Dec 11, 2008 7:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Over 45.5 Saints/Bears I got this one at 45 this morning. Gone up a .5 pt at SBG. Last 2 years these 2 teams have gone over this total in Chicago so why not again. Both teams should reach the mid 20's so this total looks like money. |
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| Author: | shultzyy [ Fri Dec 12, 2008 11:05 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
ATL -3 Cleve +14 Wash / Cinn under 36 1/2 SF / MIA under 41 1/2 MN / AZ over 47 |
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| Author: | Chus [ Fri Dec 12, 2008 12:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Green Bay -1 Miami -6 Buffalo +8 Carolina -7.5 Atlanta -3 |
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| Author: | reents [ Fri Dec 12, 2008 7:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Green Bay -1 vs Jaguars- I think the Jags have quit on the season, especially with all the injuries, Packers salvage the seaons a little. Steelers +3 vs Ravens- I like the Steelers to go to the Super Bowl, and start making people believers with a good showing in Baltimore. |
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| Author: | schmitty1121 [ Fri Dec 12, 2008 8:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Bucs +3 Rams +1 Ravens -2 Cardinals -3 Patriots -7 Giants +3 |
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| Author: | Bud Dude [ Sun Dec 14, 2008 9:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
SBG or Oddsmaker NE -6.5 over Oakland NE's close call against Seattle last week keeps this line lower than it should be. Oak 1-5 ATS at home this year. NE needs them all and should get this one by double digits. GB -2 over Jax Both teams disapointing but GB has more weapons on O. Jax O looks pathetic. KC +6 over SD Something hasn't been right in SD all year. They got a lopsided win against Oak in their last game but they always handle Oak. KC played em tough in SD earlier this year and I see the same type game today. Under 36.5 Was/Cin I think Wash will run it a ton today. Cincy O hasn't done much lately and more of the same from that unit today. Under 44.5 Tb/Atl Tb D gave up a bunch last week. They bounceback with a better effort today. 20-17 type game. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Sun Dec 14, 2008 11:31 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Miami -6 Buffalo +8 Carolina -7.5 |
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| Author: | Chus [ Sun Dec 14, 2008 11:41 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Atlanta -3 |
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| Author: | Darren - Tinley Park [ Sun Dec 14, 2008 11:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Pittsburgh (+3) against Baltimore The Steelers have the better offense of the two. Pittsburgh / Baltimore (Under 34) I'll fall into the trap with two of the best defenses going against each other. Minnesota (+3.5) against Arizona Although Arizona is still trying to improve their seeding, the Vikings have more to play for. San Diego / KC (over 42) You never know what's going to happen when these two teams get together. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Sun Dec 14, 2008 12:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
atlanta -3 arizona -3 kansas city sd under 44.5 high winds play |
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| Author: | Bud Dude [ Sun Dec 14, 2008 3:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick Winners CFB, NFL Week 15 |
Denver +8 over Carolina Denver has covered and won 3 straight on the road as dogs. Carolina coming off the big Monday game vs Tampa. Denver hangs in there all the way. Over 46.5 Min/Az Arizona has scored 29 or more in all their home games this year. No reason they shouldn't reach the 30's today. With Adrian Peterson on the other side gotta think Minny is good for at least 17. |
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