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Opening Super Bowl line & total
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Author:  Beardown [ Sun Jan 18, 2009 11:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Opening Super Bowl line & total
Steelers -7

Over/Under 47.5

I'm shocked the Cards are that big of a dog. I thought the Steelers would be favored by 3. The total is what I thought it would be. Christ, the Steelers were only 6 point favorites against the Ravens. That was a home game. Super Bowl is a neutral site.

This looks like a nice Cardinals money line play to me right now. You'll probably get it at +230 right now.

If you would have played the Super Bowl 2 weeks ago you could have got the AFC -1. If you took the AFC you would have a nice middle play right now. They were expecting Giants or Panthers obviously.
Author:  newper [ Sun Jan 18, 2009 11:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
I honestly thought it would be 7.5 Steelers. You have to remember how powerful in the public eye the AFC is versus the NFCs #5 and #6 seeds. I think the Cards are a decent buy at +7. I think Warner neutralizes some of the effect of the Steelers D, but I am still concerned about a lackluster running game out of Arizona. On the other hand, I think that the Arizona D is about average, and I think the Pittsburgh O is about average. I think AZ can shut down the running game, and should be able to get turnovers against Pitt's passing game. On special teams, I did not really like the Arizona kickoff game today -- lots of short and sideliney kicks. I am going to wait until I can get that half point and then I will bet on AZ.
Author:  Beardown [ Sun Jan 18, 2009 11:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
At first look, before I think about it too much, I love the over. Early money is gonna be on that over. I'll guarentee you that 47.5 goes up before the game. Maybe as much as 2 points.

I know part of the 7 point spread is because the Steelers are a national team. A lot of fans around the country. They'll bet on them for that reason. Vegas takes that into consideration.

A lot of money is bet on this game by people who normally don't bet. A lot of people know and love the Steelers. Nobody loves the Cardinals. Vegas is trying to get some Cardinals money to make it 50/50. I think Vegas underestimated the true gamblers. I say the Cardinals will be played hard early. Look for this line to go down. Maybe 5.5 by kick off.
Author:  Beardown [ Mon Jan 19, 2009 12:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
Hines Ward is a huge factor in this game. I wonder how bad that knee is. If it's just a sprain maybe he can go in 2 weeks. But he won't be 100%.
Author:  newper [ Mon Jan 19, 2009 12:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
Beardown wrote:

A lot of money is bet on this game by people who normally don't bet. A lot of people know and love the Steelers. Nobody loves the Cardinals. Vegas is trying to get some Cardinals money to make it 50/50. I think Vegas underestimated the true gamblers. I say the Cardinals will be played hard early. Look for this line to go down. Maybe 5.5 by kick off.

You are kind of contradicting yourself here. You think that most gamblers are wanting to bet on the Steelers, so the public will play the Cardinals hard? And hard enough to make the line go down? It's going to take a significant amount of money to shift this off of the seven, and I'm going to guess that the average American will be betting on the Steeler defense (and the favorite) to cover, and the line will move up to 7.5 at least.
Author:  Beardown [ Mon Jan 19, 2009 12:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
No. I said that's what Vegas thinks. And it's true. But real gamblers are gonna see this and bet big on the Cards early to make up for the stupid public.

I said I think Vegas underestimates the "true gambler".
Author:  newper [ Mon Jan 19, 2009 12:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
Beardown wrote:
No. I said that's what Vegas thinks. And it's true. But real gamblers are gonna see this and bet big on the Cards early to make up for the stupid public.

I said I think Vegas underestimates the "true gambler".

I think Vegas has been around for a while and will correctly estimate the true gambler. The line moves (if any) will favor the Cardinals more than the Steelers.
Author:  Beardown [ Mon Jan 19, 2009 12:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
By the way, Vegas got killed in last year's Super Bowl. Not only did the Giants cover but they lost a lot of "Money Line" bets.

I forget how much they lost but it was their biggest Super Bowl loss ever. I remember reading that.
Author:  newper [ Mon Jan 19, 2009 12:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
Beardown wrote:
By the way, Vegas got killed in last year's Super Bowl. Not only did the Giants cover but they lost a lot of "Money Line" bets.

I forget how much they lost but it was their biggest Super Bowl loss ever. I remember reading that.

I understand and respect your opinion, but Vegas isn't Vegas because they are wrong every time. Last year had a very special set of circumstances. I do not think that this year's matchup warrants the same, IMHO.
Author:  Beardown [ Mon Jan 19, 2009 12:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
They are right more than they are wrong. I know that. I just think they're gonna lose, again, on this Super Bowl. That's all. I think they'll get a lot of Cardinals money and the Cards will cover. Not sure about the Cards winning the game.
Author:  Mike Mikerson [ Mon Jan 19, 2009 9:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
Beardown wrote:
At first look, before I think about it too much, I love the over.


lol
Author:  BD [ Mon Jan 19, 2009 1:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
Beardown wrote:
Steelers -7

Over/Under 47.5

I'm shocked the Cards are that big of a dog. I thought the Steelers would be favored by 3. The total is what I thought it would be. Christ, the Steelers were only 6 point favorites against the Ravens. That was a home game. Super Bowl is a neutral site.

This looks like a nice Cardinals money line play to me right now. You'll probably get it at +230 right now.

If you would have played the Super Bowl 2 weeks ago you could have got the AFC -1. If you took the AFC you would have a nice middle play right now. They were expecting Giants or Panthers obviously.


This line will grow, I predict.
Author:  BD [ Mon Jan 19, 2009 1:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
My first thoughts are the Steelers defense is going to be better than the Cardinals offense, and the Steelers offense will be able to have some success against the Cardinals defense.

Steelers 27
Cardinals 13
Author:  Tall Midget [ Mon Jan 19, 2009 1:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
BD wrote:
My first thoughts are the Steelers defense is going to be better than the Cardinals offense, and the Steelers offense will be able to have some success against the Cardinals defense.

Steelers 27
Cardinals 13


I agree with your thoughts, BD. The Steelers are a much, much more physical team than the Cardinals--on both offense and defense. This will be like the varsity team going against the JV.
Author:  Beardown [ Mon Jan 19, 2009 2:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
You guys are forgetting something. So is Vegas. Jesus Christ is on Kurt Warner's side.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Fri Jan 23, 2009 8:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
Beardown wrote:
At first look, before I think about it too much, I love the over. Early money is gonna be on that over. I'll guarentee you that 47.5 goes up before the game. Maybe as much as 2 points.

I know part of the 7 point spread is because the Steelers are a national team. A lot of fans around the country. They'll bet on them for that reason. Vegas takes that into consideration.

A lot of money is bet on this game by people who normally don't bet. A lot of people know and love the Steelers. Nobody loves the Cardinals. Vegas is trying to get some Cardinals money to make it 50/50. I think Vegas underestimated the true gamblers. I say the Cardinals will be played hard early. Look for this line to go down. Maybe 5.5 by kick off.


I'm sorry I missed this earlier this week. I disagree with both of Beardown's contentions. The right number for the total is 45, by my numbers. They inflated it to 47.5 for the squares who bet the SB, but sharps who knew it was an overlay took it right down a point the first day. There may be some over betting by the squares on game day, but because 47 is such a key number, sharps will hit any and every 47 and 47.5 they see. If you like under (as I do) and you see a 47, grab it. I will be shocked if we see a 48.

Sharps are not playing the Cardinals yet because they are holding out for more than 7. There was a stray 7.5 here and there, but I doubt you see serious action to the Cardinals until 7.5s show widely. Then the sharps will step in and hit it hard. But that will be counter-balanced by public money on the Steelers, as Beardown correctly asserted. This number closes 7 IMO, but could hit 6.5 and 7.5 along the way. If you like the Cardinals, wait for the 7.5. If you like the Steelers, grab the 6.5 if and when it shows. There is miniscule value to waiting for a 6 or 5.5 to appear anyway because the number of games that land on 6 is not worth it.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Fri Jan 23, 2009 8:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
Also, I make the line for this game 7, based on my power ratings. Here is a little clue for you. Both teams played at New England late in the season. The Steelers were 1 point dogs and Zona was 9 point dogs. At that time, the power rating difference was 8. Now it's 7. It's certainly not 3 or 4. If you want to say, the true line is 6, I could sort of see that depending on the stat methods you use. But this line is not inflated significantly for the squares. The squares don't bet until game day. This line is standing up to the sharps and it's not moving. That should tell you it's pretty accurate.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Fri Jan 23, 2009 9:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
Coast2Coast wrote:
Beardown wrote:
At first look, before I think about it too much, I love the over. Early money is gonna be on that over. I'll guarentee you that 47.5 goes up before the game. Maybe as much as 2 points.

I know part of the 7 point spread is because the Steelers are a national team. A lot of fans around the country. They'll bet on them for that reason. Vegas takes that into consideration.

A lot of money is bet on this game by people who normally don't bet. A lot of people know and love the Steelers. Nobody loves the Cardinals. Vegas is trying to get some Cardinals money to make it 50/50. I think Vegas underestimated the true gamblers. I say the Cardinals will be played hard early. Look for this line to go down. Maybe 5.5 by kick off.


I'm sorry I missed this earlier this week. I disagree with both of Beardown's contentions. The right number for the total is 45, by my numbers. They inflated it to 47.5 for the squares who bet the SB, but sharps who knew it was an overlay took it right down a point the first day. There may be some over betting by the squares on game day, but because 47 is such a key number, sharps will hit any and every 47 and 47.5 they see. If you like under (as I do) and you see a 47, grab it. I will be shocked if we see a 48.

Sharps are not playing the Cardinals yet because they are holding out for more than 7. There was a stray 7.5 here and there, but I doubt you see serious action to the Cardinals until 7.5s show widely. Then the sharps will step in and hit it hard. But that will be counter-balanced by public money on the Steelers, as Beardown correctly asserted. This number closes 7 IMO, but could hit 6.5 and 7.5 along the way. If you like the Cardinals, wait for the 7.5. If you like the Steelers, grab the 6.5 if and when it shows. There is miniscule value to waiting for a 6 or 5.5 to appear anyway because the number of games that land on 6 is not worth it.


I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for a 7.5, IMO. I'd think the books would be awfully gunshy about setting up a middling opportunity the year after they bled money during the Super Bowl.
Author:  newper [ Fri Jan 23, 2009 11:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
Irish Boy wrote:
I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for a 7.5, IMO. I'd think the books would be awfully gunshy about setting up a middling opportunity the year after they bled money during the Super Bowl.

Some of us already got our half point. :lol: Seriously though, I feel I am going to wait for a while to see if it does end up in the 7.5. I think it is more likely to go 7.5 than 6.5 again, so I will just wait it out and see what happens. As soon as some places start to dip down to 6.5, I will load up on the 7, but until then, I'm happy waiting another week and thinking of some avatar ideas. :)
Author:  SHARK [ Fri Jan 23, 2009 11:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Opening Super Bowl line & total
The way the oddsmakers set up football lines like this, they want money on both sides, and so far, there seems to be more cash, albeit slightly, on the Steelers. That explains why it's a 7 point spread and a total of 47 right now. If there's money on the Cardinals, I think the line will change...To my knowledge, Pittsburgh was originally a 6 1/2 point favorite when the initial betting line came out.
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