a few more
BEN BURNS
I'm playing on Pittsburgh and Arizona to finish UNDER the total. These teams both saw their games last week finish above the number. Arizona and Philadelphia combined for 57. Pittsburgh and Baltimore combined for 37. Those results have many expecting a shootout and in turn have helped to keep the Super Bowl total generously high. The fact that both Conference Championship games finished above the total should not bother us. Last year's Super Bowl finished below the total but it doesn't apply, as the 'over' had gone 1-1 in the Conference Championship Round. However, the previous two years both saw the 'over' go a combined 4-0 in the Conference Championship Rd and yet in each case the Super Bowl finished UNDER the total. Two years ago, the Colts and Bears saw their two championship games finish with 72 and 53 points respectively, yet the teams combined for 46 in the Super Bowl, sneaking below the total of 47. The previous season, the Steelers and Seahawks both saw their Conference Championship games finish above the total. Yet, the teams combined for only 31 points (21-10 Pittsburgh) when matched up against each other in the big game. It can also go the other way. The last time that we saw a Super Bowl finished 'over' the total was in 2004 in the Patriots/Panthers game. In that contest, both teams had played low-scoring games which went 'under' in the Championship game. Yet, despite a slow start, their Super Bowl meeting finished well above the number. Looking back at the Steelers' last Super Bowl appearance, we find that they also faced an NFC West team which threw a lot of passes. In fact, Seattle threw the ball a whopping 49 times. Yet, despite the high number of passes, the Seahawks still only managed 10 points. Although I do expect them to mix in more running plays than many are expecting, like Seattle, the Cardinals will also throw the ball fairly regularly. Like the Seahawks learned, I expect that the Cardinals will also find that passing against the Pittsburgh defense isn't as easy as they might think, or at least that reaching the end zone won't be easy. While we know that the Steelers defense tends to dominate, the Cardinals have also proven to be be much better on that side of the ball than most people believed them to be capable of. These teams faced each other last season. That game had a halftime score of 7-0 and was still tied 7-7 in the fourth quarter, before eventually finishing with a final of 21-14. Note that the lone score in the third quarter was a 73-yard punt return for a touchdown. Willie Parker came in having run for more than 100 yards in four straight games, yet the Cards' defense rose to the occasion and limited him to a mere 37 yards on 18 carries. Additionally, Rothlisberger entered that game having only been sacked four times in his previous three games. Yet, Arizona sacked him four times in that game alone. Big Ben would finish 17 of 32 with two interceptions. Including that result, the UNDER is 7-5 the last 12 times that the Steelers have faced an opponent from the NFC, including a perfect 4-0 this season. Three of those games came against teams (Giants, Cowboys, Eagles) which ranked above the league average in terms of total points scored, while the other was against Washington. Yet, those four games finished with combined scores of 33, 29, 35 and 21 points. While most are expecting a high-scoring affair, I look for the defenses to be better than expected and for the final combined score to stay below the generous number. *Playoff TOY
DOC
4 Unit Play. #101 Take Pittsburgh over Arizona (Sunday 6:20 pm NBC) The Cardinals will try and break the second longest championship drought in professional sports history but that will continue as this game belongs to Pittsburgh. As the saying goes, defense wins championships and Pittsburgh has a major edge in this department with the No. 1 ranked defense in the league. The Steelers will shutdown the Arizona running attack and not let Fitzgerald beat them with big plays down the middle of the field. Arizona has an edge of offense, but I believe that Pittsburgh will be able to get pressure on QB Warner and force him into a couple of turnovers. QB Roethlisberger does not put up flashy stats, but he is a winner and makes plays when the pressure is on him. Teams that have reached the Super Bowl for the first time have traditionally not done well in the big game and we fully expect that trend to hold true once again. Pittsburgh dominates this game for sixty minutes and we collect big in the process as well. Pitt 27, Arizona 13.
Ez Winners
10 * Zona
His Highest Play Is A 10 Star
THE SIXTH SENSE
REG YTD 53-36-3 +37.20%
PLAY YTD 1-4 –11.20%
3% PITTSBURGH –6.5 This number is coming down.
3% PITTSBURGH/ARIZONA OVER 46.5 This number is coming down so you might get better
All plays are delivered via email and will be sent by 10 p.m. central on Friday evenings.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 22.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.2
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.1
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.3
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
PITTSBURGH –6.5 ARIZONA 46.5
The Steelers clearly come into this game with a much better defense and Arizona comes into this game with a much better offense. The question, of course, is what will win out on Super Bowl Sunday. Pittsburgh averages just 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl but allows just 3.9yppl against 5.1yppl. Arizona averages 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl but allows 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. Those numbers indicate Pittsburgh is about 0.5yppl better than Arizona. My numbers on this game also favor Pittsburgh by about five points although the predicted total is about 50 with a score of 30-20 in favor of Pittsburgh. When I do a profile match up I get Pittsburgh by 33-21. Pittsburgh qualifies in a few playoff systems, which are 40-9-0, 42-14-0 and 49-20-3.
Arizona has played eight games against teams I would consider in Pittsburgh’s class or at least solid playoff teams. During those games, they were out scored 233-211, which means they lost by an average of 29-26. Pittsburgh played two games against teams somewhat similar to Arizona (good offense, average defense) and both those games were against San Diego. They won those games 11-10 and 35-24 for an average of 23-17. If you average those scores together, you would get something around 26-22. That doesn’t support Pittsburgh but does slightly support the over. The least amount of points scored in those eight Arizona games was 46 points. Arizona is a team that if they get behind they are good enough on offense that they will score some points. They could get blown out and still score 20 points, which would put this game over the total. Pittsburgh will score some points in this game. Arizona will not be able to run the ball. That means they will throw the ball and that either leads to scores, clock stoppage and/or turnovers. Pittsburgh will either score because Arizona gives up points against quality teams or because they are playing from behind, which will mean they get some meaningless scores. One way or the other I see meaningless scores in this game.
It’s also important to note Pittsburgh allows 3.9yppl against teams averaging 5.1yppl, meaning they are 1.2yppl better than an average team on defense. Those numbers represent the regular season numbers. I looked back over all the Super Bowl’s going back to 1972. Since that time, only four teams have entered the SB with a defense that is 0.7yppl or better. Those four teams won their games 24-7 (1973), 16-6 (1974), 31-19 (1979) and 48-21 (2002). Clearly these teams perform very well in the SB.
The numbers suggest a final spread between five and 12 points, depending on what I use. The totals suggest something between 48-54 points. Back that up with some solid systems in favor of Pittsburgh and I think the only way to lean in this game is Pittsburgh and over a total that seems to be coming down. PITTSBURGH 33 ARIZONA 23
Rainman
5* Pitt
2* Over
Lee Kostroski
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 4* Pittsburgh (-) vs. Arizona, 6:20 PM EST on Sunday, February 1st
It all comes down to this? The Arizona Cardinals are in the Super Bowl?! Sure they have had a nice run the last three weeks to get here, but they DO NOT stand a chance against the Steelers. Pittsburgh has played 13 games this year (including playoffs) against teams with a .500 record or better. They are much more battle tested than the Cardinals and have the NFL’s best defense. They have also used this extra week off to heal up after their very physical match-up with the Ravens in the conference championship. Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is a mastermind when it comes to scheming against opposing offenses and he won’t allow Arizona to jump out to an early lead, as the Cardinals have throughout the playoffs. With a far superior defense and an opportunistic offense, the Pittsburgh Steelers will be crowned the NFL Champions on February 1st.
Arizona has been playing very well since their 7-47 loss to New England on Dec. 21st. The Cardinals are averaging 32 points and 386 yards per game in their last 4 games. In the playoffs alone, they have 95 total points in just 3 games. They have been jumping to early leads as 65 of their 95 playoff points have come in the first half. Arizona has been playing the role as the underdog to perfection, as NO ONE expected them to make it this far, and they have benefited from playing two playoff games at home and also a road game in which Carolina committed 6 turnovers. We do not see Pittsburgh taking Arizona lightly, committing silly turnovers, or allowing Arizona to jump to an early lead.
We mentioned before how Pittsburgh has the best defense in the NFL, ranking 1st in passing defense, scoring defense, and total defense, and 2nd in rushing defense. Since their Nov. 9th loss to the Colts, the Steelers pass defense allows just 51% completions for 168 yards per game, allowing just 6 touchdowns and forcing 16 interceptions. Their great pass defense is correlated with their pass rush, as they were 2nd in the NFL during the regular season with 51 sacks. Arizona QB Kurt Warner has had a great post-season so far, but he hasn’t seen a defense like Pittsburgh’s.
This makes the Cardinals season just getting to this point, as they didn’t expect to be here at all. The Steelers aren’t satisfied with just ‘being here,’ they are expecting to walk away with the Lombardi Trophy. They have more playoff experience and a better defense; going with the old cliché: Defense wins championships. Go with Pittsburgh.
Paid for and confirmed
Marc Lawerence
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From a radio show in Philadelphia that he calls into every friday nite......
Steelers & Under................
Marc really likes the Steelers. He said the final would be around 27-13.....
Cajun-Sports Executive- Sunday
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals (NFL) - 6:25 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-100 Arizona Cardinals Play Title: Cajuns NFL 4-Star Super Bowl Winner 17-0-2 ATS
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
This season’s NFL Championship will be decided on Sunday as the Steelers make their 7th Super Bowl appearance to take on a Cardinals team making their first ever showing in this extravaganza.
In fact, Arizona’s division title this year was their first since 1975, when the team resided in St. Louis and called the NFC East home. The team’s playoff appearance this season is just the second in the span of 24 seasons, and the team earned a postseason home game for the first time since 1947.
Arizona's three wins in the 2008 playoffs - over the Falcons, Panthers and Eagles - were more playoff victories than the club had recorded in its previous 87 years of existence - combined.
Obviously, the Cards are viewed as an unlikely Super Bowl participant due not only to their dismal history, but to their occasionally shoddy play in this, their NFC West Championship season.
Ken Whisenhunt's club went just 9-7 in 2008, making Arizona the weakest of the NFC's six playoff entries. Arizona was 0-5 on the east coast during the regular season prior to their 20-point upset of the Panthers in the NFC Divisional Round, including decisive losses to the Jets, Eagles, and Patriots, allowing 47+ points in each game.
Following the retirement of Bill Cowher 2 years ago, Whisenhunt and current Arizona assistant head coach Russ Grimm were both interviewed, and eventually passed over, for the head job that went to Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin in 2007.
Tomlin has become the youngest coach to lead a team to the Super Bowl with the Black and Gold's 23-14 AFC Championship win over the Ravens. The Steelers are now seeking what would be an NFL-record sixth Super Bowl title, which would break a tie with the Cowboys and 49ers for the most all-time.
Both starting quarterbacks will be seeking a second Super Bowl win on Sunday, with the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger and Cardinals' Kurt Warner both attempting to become multiple Super Bowl winners.
Warner, who also lost a Super Bowl as a member of the Rams in 2001, can become the first starting QB in NFL history to win a Super Bowl with two different teams.
The Steelers lead the all-time series with the Cardinals, which dates back to the 1933 season, by a 31-23-3 count; however, Whisenhunt won his only meeting with Pittsburgh since leaving the Steel City, guiding the Cardinals to a 21-14 victory in Week 4 of the 2007 season at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Ben Roethlisberger will be trying to erase the memory of his poor performance in Super Bowl XL, when he completed just 9-of-21 passes for 123 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions. Roethlisberger did rush for a (controversial) touchdown in the game, but his 22.6 passer rating remains the worst for a winning quarterback in Super Bowl history. The former Pro Bowler has made several big plays in this postseason, and has thrown a pair of touchdown passes without a turnover in the 2008 playoffs; however, in his last meeting with the Cardinals, in Week 4 of the 2007 season, Roethlisberger threw two picks and was sacked four times on a 17-of-32, 244-yard passing day, and his team lost the game.
Pittsburgh RB Willie Parker has played good football of late and can point to a strong Super Bowl showing 3 years ago, his work last time out against the Cardinals left much to be desired. Arizona held him to 37 yards on 19 carries in that game last season.
The most notable Steelers injury heading into Super Bowl XLIII is the knee sprain suffered by WR Hines Ward against Baltimore, though the ailment is not expected to keep him out or limit his availability in the game. Ward was huge in Super Bowl XL, catching five passes for 123 yards including a 43-yard fourth quarter TD catch on a trick play pass from fellow WR Randle El. WR Santonio Holmes has made giant plays in both of the team's 2008 playoff games, as he has scored on a 67- yard punt return and 65-yard touchdown catch in these playoffs.
Much of Pittsburgh's offensive inconsistency in 2008 can be laid at the feet of a struggling line that neither showed a great push in the running game nor managed to keep Roethlisberger upright for any length of time. Tackles Max Starks and Willie Colon were at the forefront of a pass-blocking group that surrendered 49 sacks on the year. The Steelers allowed four sacks to Baltimore in the AFC Championship. Now, the Pittsburgh o-line will have to face a young and active Arizona defensive line.
Cardinals Antonio Smith and Bertrand Berry have really stepped up their play during Arizona's postseason run, with the duo combining for four of the team's seven sacks in the playoffs. Berry topped the Cardinals with five quarterback takedowns in the regular season despite often sharing time with Travis LaBoy.
Darnell Dockett compensates for a lack of ideal size for an interior defender with tremendous quickness and explosion off the snap, qualities that enabled the energetic tackle to generate nine sacks and earn a Pro Bowl nod in 2007.
The Arizona linebacking crew is also under-rated, as this quality crew is headlined by Karlos Dansby. Rugged middle linebacker Gerald Hayes has been one of the keys to the team's resurgence in defending the run, while veteran Chike Okeafor put together a solid season after missing all of 2007 with a torn biceps.
The Cardinals ranked an unwanted 30th in the NFL in pass efficiency defense during the regular season, but an area that was a major weakness early on has been upgraded with the emergence of rookie Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie at one of the cornerback spots. The first-round draft choice has become a lock-down defender in the season's second half and has snared six interceptions over Arizona's last six games.
Strong safety Adrian Wilson may not have the notoriety of Pittsburgh's Troy Polamalu, but the team captain's exceptional blend of size and skill make him just as vital to the success of the Cardinals' defense as Polamalu is to the Steelers. Former first-round pick Antrel Rolle seems to have found a home at free safety after flopping as a cornerback and has a flair for the big play. The fourth-year pro had a momentum-changing fumble return touchdown against Atlanta in the NFC Wild Card round, his fifth defensive score in the past two years.
Looking at the Cardinals on offense, they are in great hands with the rejuvenated Kurt Warner at the controls of the NFL's second-ranked passing offense. Warner is a two-time league MVP who's played in two previous Super Bowls with the St. Louis Rams and owns a stellar 8-2 career postseason record. Advanced age has not seemed to diminish his arm strength or accuracy, as Warner completed better than 67 percent of his passes in the regular season.
Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower have been a most effective duo during Arizona's remarkable postseason run, although they'll have their toughest challenge to date from Pittsburgh's stingy rushing defense. Hightower has quickly established himself as a strong short-yardage runner and a capable receiver who caught the deciding touchdown pass in the team's 32-25 victory over Philadelphia in the NFC Championship.
There's not a team in the league that can best the Cardinals' top-notch receiving trio of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston, with the group becoming only the fifth threesome in NFL history to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in a single season. The dazzling Fitzgerald has been virtually unstoppable down the stretch, as the first-team All-Pro has amassed five straight 100-yard outings and hauled in eight touchdown passes over that stretch. The fearless Boldin missed some time during the playoffs with a hamstring strain, but the sure-handed wideout should be close to 100% for the Super Bowl.
The offensive Line is another area on the Arizona team that has raised its level of play during the team’s unexpected run to the Super Bowl. The five-man contingent has provided excellent protection for Warner, who's been sacked just three times in Arizona's playoff wins, and skillfully opened holes for the running backs. Of course, the Cardinals offense will have its biggest challenge yet, going up against the Steelers NFL-leading defense.
Perhaps the most unsung component of Pittsburgh’s stop unit is their three-man front, which consists of space-eating nose tackle Casey Hampton and ends Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel. Hampton and Smith had four tackles each in Super Bowl XL, and Hampton had a sack of Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck in that contest.
Any plays that the d-line has not made against opposing running games this season have been cleaned up mainly by the Steelers' inside linebacker rotation of James Farrior, Larry Foote and Lawrence Timmons. Farrior had a team-high nine tackles against the Ravens in the AFC Championship game, while Timmons chipped in with a game-sealing fumble recovery that followed a monster hit by safety Ryan Clark on Ravens running back Willis McGahee. Farrior was one of three Steelers named to the AFC Pro Bowl team back in December, along with Harrison and safety Troy Polamalu.
The engine of the Steelers defense is their pass rush, led by Harrison and fellow OLB LaMarr Woodley. Harrison has had the stronger year, but when he was shut out of the sack category against the Ravens in the AFC Championship, Woodley helped pick up the slack with a pair of sacks.
No position on the field for Pittsburgh will be under more scrutiny than cornerback, as Ike Taylor, Deshea Townsend, and Bryant McFadden will be the main figures trying to contain the 1,000-yard Arizona receiving trio. The group struggled against Fitzgerald last time out, surrendering 10 receptions for 120 yards to the All-Pro in their 2007 meeting, and caught a break when Boldin sat out that game due to injury.
If the Steelers are to contain Fitzgerald and Boldin, they'll need a great deal of help from safeties Polamalu and Ryan Clark, who both come off fine seasons and notable performances in the AFC Championship. On a 3rd-and-13 play with under five minutes left and the Steelers ahead, 16-14, a floated pass by Flacco was intercepted by Polamalu, whose 40-yard runback for a touchdown put Baltimore in an insurmountable 23-14 hole.
The teams also match up fairly evenly on special teams. After two subpar seasons that followed a record-setting 2005 campaign, the Cardinals' Neil Rackers rebounded with a excellent year in which the strong-legged kicker made good on 25-of-28 field goal attempts prior to the playoffs. He then converted 5-of-7 three-point tries in Arizona's three postseason games, with both misses coming from beyond 50 yards.
Although Ben Graham has solidified this position somewhat during the playoffs, the Cardinals ranked 31st out of 32 NFL teams in net punting in the regular season. The Australian veteran has lost some leg strength over the past couple of years, but still gets good hang time and placement on his kicks.
The Steelers are fully aware of Steve Breaston's punt-returning skills, since the sophomore wideout delivered a 73-yard touchdown in Arizona's 21-14 win over Pittsburgh last season. Reserve running back J.J. Arrington has two kick return touchdowns over the last three years, including a 93-yard score that helped spur a critical overtime victory over Dallas in mid-October, and ranked among the NFC leaders in that category with a 25.6 yard average.
The Cardinals produced the NFC's special teams representative for the upcoming Pro Bowl in Sean Morey, who led the club with 22 coverage tackles and blocked a punt in overtime that created the winning touchdown in the Week 6 win over the Cowboys.
The Steelers have a reliable leg in seventh-year kicker Jeff Reed, who was 27-of-31 on field goals during the regular season. In the AFC Championship, Reed was 3-for-3 on field goals, connecting on kicks of 34, 42, and 46 yards in less-than-ideal conditions.
Steelers punter Mitch Berger was competent but unspectacular during the regular season, but the 36-year-old journeyman has not kicked well during the playoffs. Berger has punted to averages of just 41.5 (gross) and 33.4 yards (net) on 11 punts, and has not placed a single kick inside the 20-yard-line.
Santonio Holmes was not necessarily sensational on punt returns during the regular season, averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt, but showed against the Chargers that he possesses big-play ability if given some space. In addition to his performance against the Bolts, Holmes also had a nice 25-yard punt return against a good Ravens punt coverage group in the AFC Championship.
The Steelers coverage groups did a consistently credible job during the regular season, allowing 19.3 yards per kickoff return and 6.2 yards per punt return without surrendering a touchdown on either avenue. Some cracks have formed in the foundation during the postseason, however. The Chargers' Darren Sproles broke free for a 63-yard kickoff return in the Divisional Playoff round, while Baltimore's Jim Leonhard set up a touchdown with a 45-yard punt return in the AFC Championship. Also, the Steelers allowed a 73-yard punt return for a touchdown to Arizona's Steve Breaston when the teams met in Week 4 of the 2007 campaign.
We believe in the adage “defense wins championships”; however, that doesn’t mean great defensive teams will cover pointspreads as large favorites. The Steelers aren't a great offensive football team, although they did cover sizeable pointspreads in their 2 playoffs games so far this season. We would point out though, that Pittsburgh enjoyed the advantage of 2 home games in less-than-ideal conditions and played foes with serious deficiencies. The Chargers were without “LT”, while the Ravens were playing with a rookie QB, who was in over his head in the AFC Championship Game. Here, Pittsburgh will be on a neutral field against an opponent at full strength being led by a veteran, Super Bowl-winning QB.
It might not be whether Pittsburgh's defense can hold down Arizona's offense, but by how much. Dick LeBeau issues goals to his defense and each game they enter with a goal of holding the opposing offense to 17 points.
They figure if they do that, they have a high chance of winning. Five times the past season, opponents scored more than 17 points against the Steelers, although not all of those points came against their defense. The Steelers lost three of those games and another went into overtime before they won.
Against the Cardinals' dynamic offense, that goal might have to be stretched somewhat. But by how much - 20, 24, 27? That would put more pressure on Pittsburgh's offense to ring up some points, and the Steelers have had a spotty record of that this season.
Pittsburgh ranked 20th in the NFL with an average of 21.7 points per game during the regular season.
The pressure might not be on the Steelers defense to stop Arizona's productive offense as much as it will be on their own offense to produce more than it has much of the season. And that will mean the Steelers need a good game from their quarterback, certainly better than the Super Bowl he played three years ago. The Steelers beat Seattle, 21-10, almost in spite of Ben Roethlisberger.
While “Big Ben” was perhaps an overwhelmed youngster in that Super Bowl 3 years ago, he faces a different problem this time, as one of our football handicapping keys is to:
Play ON a team with a new head coach or assistant that was previously with his new team’s current opponent.
This situation is especially strong if the coach left with a bitter taste in his mouth and/or his new team is an underdog. These coaches know their ex-team and ex-players very well, and if the schemes they left behind are still in tact, they will have a huge gameplanning edge.
Arizona certainly fits the bill here, as they have coaches that spent a lot of time coaching many of the Steelers, including Roethlisberger. Both sides are downplaying it, but the fact is that Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt was Roethlisberger's offensive coordinator for his first three seasons in the NFL. Arizona’s offensive line coach Russ Grimm also held that job in Pittsburgh and played a big part in formulating game plans with Whisenhunt. They have intimate knowledge of what Roethlisberger prefers and does not like in terms of how he's blitzed, from where, etc.
The Cardinals staff also includes former Steelers assistants Billy Davis (linebackers), Mike Miller (wide receivers), Matt Reich (defensive assistant), and Kevin Spencer (special teams). Former Steelers players on the team include injured linebacker Clark Haggans, tight end Jerame Tuman, quarterback Brian St. Pierre and Pro Bowl special teamer Sean Morey.
Roethlisberger was inconsistent this season after an outstanding 2007. He was down to 17 TD passes and an 80.1 passer rating, down from 32 TDs and a 104.1 rating in 2007, both team records. Yet he also had five winning drives in the fourth quarter or OT in 2008, and had to do so under a lot of pressure behind a so-so line - he was sacked 46 times.
Results of previous regular-season meetings are hardly foolproof indicators of what might transpire in a postseason rematch. That's especially true if the last meeting between the teams occurred in a prior campaign. Nonetheless, because of the unique dynamics involved between Pittsburgh and Arizona, a review of 2007's 21-14 Cardinal win is in order.
The Steelers entered that game hot, having scored 97 points in winning their first 3 games in impressive fashion, but they were mostly held in check by the Arizona defense that afternoon. Indeed, Pittsburgh WR Santonio Holmes thought Whisenhunt's familiarity with his old team proved a bonus for the Big Red. "I think coach Whiz knew some of our weak points of our offense," said Holmes. "He was sending guys left and right, bringing pressure as much as he could to try and disrupt our offense." The Steelers' usually robust infantry was slowed to a crawl, Willie Parker gaining only 37 YR on 19 carries, while QB Ben Roethlisberger tossed a pair of picks and was sacked 4 times and suffered his worst QB rating of the season.
Meanwhile, Kurt Warner came off the bench to relieve the ineffective Matt Leinart for Arizona, with the vet QB leading a second-half comeback. Arizona, with Edgerrin James gaining 77 yards on the ground, actually outrushed Pittsburgh, while Card WR Fitzgerald caught those 10 passes despite being the focus of Steeler pass coverage with fellow WR Boldin out with an injury.
It's apparent that Whisenhunt's familiarity with his old Steeler troops made the difference in the last meeting. While, Pittsburgh may be a bit of a different bunch than it was in September of 2007, the Cards are hardly the same team they were last year, either.
They're a lot better.
It's also worth noting that Whisenhunt & Co. have had nearly a full season to make adjustments, which is exactly what they've done in the postseason. The Big Red has successfully balanced their offense in the playoffs, thanks to the re-emergence of Edgerrin James. And Warner has dealt successfully with some of the NFC's best defenses in the postseason, with the Cards cracking the 30-point barrier in each of their three playoff games. It would be hard to argue that the Steeler defense is playing any better than Philadelphia's was entering the NFC title game, but Warner & Co. jumped on the Eagles early and had enough poise and presence to weather the desperate Philly rally, resolutely driving 72 yards in 14 plays for the winning TD in the waning moments at Glendale. Versus the Julius Peppers-led Carolina pass rush in the division round, and against the variety of blitzes of Eagle DC Jim Johnson in the NFC title game, Warner's savvy reads and quick release helped diffuse the best of pass rushes, even as it can against Dick LeBeau's patented zone blitzers. And no opposing secondary has figured out a way to slow the rampant Fitzgerald in the postseason.
Forget Arizona’s publicized shortcomings on the road, especially in the eastern time zone, during the regular season. The Cards exorcized those demons with their runaway win at Carolina, which boasted the only 8-0 home record during the regular season. The dynamics of the Super Bowl, where the teams spend almost a week at the game's locale, are far different than a normal, hurried-up, regular-season road trip, anyway. It should also be noted that Pittsburgh was not infallible away from home this season, falling embarrassingly short in two of its toughest tests away from Heinz Field - smothered by the Eagle defense in a 15-6 early-season loss at the Linc, and outclassed decisively at Tennessee in a late-December AFC showdown resulting in a 31-14 Titans win. Even the Steelers' most notable road win was a controversial one, with Santonio Holmes' disputed TD catch the difference in a last-minute 13-9 escape at Baltimore.
While some will point to Pittsburgh’s Super Bowl victory 3 years ago as a big experience edge for the Steelers, we would note that Ken Whisenhunt and his staff won 12 Super Bowl rings of their own.
Additionally, we have a small-sample Super Bowl POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a Super Bowl team off an appearance in any of the 3 previous Super Bowls vs. an opponent not off a Conference Championship SU win as an underdog of more than 10 points in its last game.
Since 1995, these experience Super Bowl teams have gone 0-6 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 10 points per game on average.
We also have a very simple, but very strong Super Bowl POWER SYSTEM active for this game, as the team that has done better spread-wise in the postseason has continued to cover the number under the circumstances outlined. It reads:
Play ON a Super Bowl team (not a favorite of more than 13 points) with the better ATS record in the current postseason (underdog if ATS records identical with only wins; favorite if ATS records identical with any losses/pushes).
We have used this Super Bowl POWER SYSTEM in each of the past 4 seasons after discovering this situation, and it has been a winner for us each time. Qualifying teams are now 17-0 ATS since 1987, beating the spread by nearly 2 TDs per game on average. With the underdog Cardinals 3-0 ATS in this year’s playoffs, they trump the Steelers’ 2-0 spread mark, making Arizona the “PLAY ON” team.
We also note that after making it to the Super Bowl with an underdog victory, teams have continued to play very well in recent seasons. Specifically:
Play ON a Super Bowl team off a Conference Championship underdog SU win in its last game vs. an opponent not favored off a Conference Championship underdog SU win in its last game.
Just since 2000, these teams are 6-0 ATS, crushing the spread by more than 16 ppg on average.
Finally, whether an underdog or the favorite in the Super Bowl, lower-seeded teams have been the side with line value in recent seasons. This Super Bowl POWER SYSTEM states:
Play AGAINST a Super Bowl Higher Seed not an underdog of 7+ points vs. an opponent not off a Conference Championship SU win as an underdog of more than 10 points in its last game.
Since 1995, these teams are 0-9-2 ATS, failing to cover the number by more than 11 points per game on average.
Just as having Jon Gruden as coach in Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl outing against the Raiders a few years ago, having Whisenhunt & Co. on the sidelines should be a huge advantage for Arizona. It should certainly be enough of an edge to allow the Cardinals to cover the spread and may prove to be enough to hand them a Super win. Ultimately, we expect a razor-close game with the Steelers pulling out a victory by the slimmest of margins.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Arizona +7 over Pittsburgh
sports betting professor
We are fast approaching what many people regard as the most anticipated sportsbetting day of the year. While most smart bettors know there is more value found on an NBA Tuesday than on the Super Bowl, you can't deny that the day captures the attention of the American public like no other. Chances are this isn't a game that you'll be sitting at home and watching by yourself even if you're not from Pittsburgh or Arizona. And that's why even though the game does not fit into my system I have a couple of recommendations for the game Sunday. The game information you are about to read, comes direct from Sports Insights, the leading sports information site found on the Internet. Through exclusive agreements with offshore sportsbooks, they have direct betting stats - so you know EXACTLY where the money is going. They also have the quickest line updates in the world. You can reach Sports Insights by clicking here. According to Sports Insights: Current Betting Percentages on the Super Bowl
Pittsburg Steelers 42%
Arizona Cardinals 58% For the Superbowl, the “generally-available” line opened at Pittsburgh -6.5. As we saw above, early Superbowl betting has most of the bets (about 60%) coming in on the underdog Arizona Cardinals. Even with the majority of bets landing on Arizona, the line has inched up to Pittsburgh -7. This is a relatively large move in the NFL – especially near a “key number” like 7. This means that “big money” – which is usually “smart money” – is taking the Steelers. In other words, even though most bettors are on Arizona, “big bets” on Pittsburgh are more than balancing the Public's action on Arizona. This indicator says to go along with the “smart money” and take Pittsburgh. In addition to our “quant” or “technical” analysis of the sports marketplace (based on “betting percentages” and “line movement”), SportsInsights tries to analyze games using some approaches that resemble “fundamental analysis” in the financial markets. For example, are there some extraneous factors that make a bet seem over-valued or under-valued? We try to “buy low and sell high” by using a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately?” factor. That is, the Public tends to exaggerate the importance of recent events. Arizona's offense has been pounding the opposition. After being one of the highest-scoring teams during the regular season, Kurt Warner and crew have rung up more than 30 points in each of their playoff match-ups. Warner and his receivers look like they are playing pick-up football against a bunch of five-year-olds! The Public loves offense and this is another reason we feel that Arizona is currently over-valued. We'll “sell” the Cardinals at a recent “high.” During the early part of the regular season, the media focused on teams like Tennessee and both NY teams as “Superbowl favorites.” Later in the season, fans saw teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, and the Colts streak into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers played “steady football” all season long and “quietly” (if you can call their defense quiet!) ran up a 12-4 record, yielding a league-low 223 points. Some of the intangibles point to “selling” the Cardinals at a “high” and “buying” a great Steelers team that avoided being over-hyped. SportsInsights' analysts took a quick peek at recent Superbowl scores.
• 3 out of the last 5 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 4 out of the last 7 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 6 out the last 11 Superbowls were settled by a TD or less. We normally hate giving 7 points or more (or even taking a favorite!). However, we let the numbers do the talking. And, yet again, the recent history of Superbowls (and an emphasis on shorter-term events) might be giving us some value. Over the much larger sample size of 42 Superbowl games: • 29 out of 42 games have been settled by more than a TD. Football fans seem to be forgetting how we used to see lopsided (and sadly, sometimes boring) Superbowls. This is giving us some value as the general Public is taking the points in this Superbowl. This is the type of information you will have access to if you have a membership with Sports Insights, the best sports information site in the world. Get started with Sports Insights today. And you can still get Pittsburgh at -6.5 at a few shops. That is our side bet for the Super Bowl: Pittsburgh Steelers For the total in the game, we are betting the Under. Again, THESE PLAYS ARE NOT STRICT Sports Betting Professor system plays. We are betting the Under because that is where the smart money, big bets are coming in at all the offshore outs that I have connections with. These include some of the biggest credit shops in the world located in Curacao and Costa Rica. To reiterate: our plays (not strict SBP plays) for the Super Bowl are ...
Pittsburgh Steelers and Under
If you're out has Pittsburgh -7, I recommend buying them down to 6.5. If you're sportsbook has the total at 46.5, I recommend buying it up to 47. Good luck and enjoy the game,Rich
Bryan Leonard
Plays are rated from 2-5*s for strength & bankroll %
2* Arizona & Pittsburgh
We talked about this with our Cardinals selection over the Eagles earlier in the playoffs and for those who didn't purchase the play we will reiterate. Arizona didn't play 16 games in the regular season like most other teams, they played just 13 meaningful games. You see they had the division sewn up early on and didn't need to exert the kind of effort that the Steelers had to use each week. The Cardinals had the ability to pick and choose which games they could concentrate their efforts on and it saved them come playoff time. Arizona was sitting at 7-3 and were hosting the Super Bowl favorite Giants in a Sunday night game in the desert. Despite giving it their all they fell to the defending champs 37-29. They then had to travel to Philadelphia to play a Thursday night game on short rest. Obviously the Cards cared little about this game and the Eagles blasted them 48-20. The Cards were able to get their revenge in the playoffs when both teams had something to play for. The following week Arizona beat St Louis 34-10 to clinch the division and their first playoff game is what seems like forever. As pointed out by Howie Long on the pregame show the following week the Cardinals partied like it was 1999. Long said he had never seen a team still celebrating the victory this far along in the week, and it showed as Minnesota crushed the Cards 35-14. The following week with again nothing to play for Arizona (a warm weather team) traveled to New England to face not only a Patriot team in a must win situation, but blizzard weather conditions with below zero temperatures. As expected the Cards mailed the game in as New England pounced 47-7. So keep in mind when you talk about the overall stats for Arizona that not all games are considered equal.
Pittsburgh is thought of as a terrific defensive team, but take a look at their schedule. Cleveland twice, Cincinnati twice, Baltimore twice, Jacksonville, Washington and Tennessee. While we know this Steeler defense is very good they have been playing either in terrible weather or against weak offensive opposition. So how has Pittsburgh done against playoff competition? Besides Baltimore who they beat three times, they lost to Philadelphia by 9 at home, lost to the Giants by 7 at home, lost to the Colts by 4 at home, beat San Diego by a single point at home before winning the playoff rematch, and lost at Tennessee by 17 on the road.
Arizona is every bit as good as the Steelers, especially getting a full touchdown. Grab up the last of the sevens and look for the Cardinals to take this one to the wire.
PLAY ARIZONA
Randall the Handle
Arizona +6½ +1.00 over PITTSBURGH PINNACLE
The stronger the Cardinals look the less respect they’re getting and frankly, I don’t give a rats ass what the stats say, the Cardinals are going to be tough to beat here and 6½ or 7 is way too many. Yeah, the Cardinals limped into the playoffs but so what. Once they got there they’ve been a powerhouse and it’s not like they haven’t beat anyone. They opened with a solid win over Atlanta and hung a 30 on a tough defense. They followed that up by blowing away Carolina, in Carolina no less against another tough defense and a stifled an offense that was firing on all cylinders. Incidentally, they put up 33 points. Then they took on the surging Eagles and blew them away in the first half before they got a little complacent and saw its 24-6 halftime lead turn into a one-point deficit. In a crucial possession, down by a point and all the pressure in the world on them, the Cardinals put together one of the best drives in playoffs history; a 72-yard, eight minute beauty, capped off by a two-point conversion that left Philly with under three minutes to go. Oh, they hung a 32 on the Eagles against a defense that was playing at its peak. Now they’re getting seven points against an offense that is not even close to being as good as Atlanta, Carolina or Philadelphia. Sure, the Steelers defense is tough as shoe leather and it’s unlikely the Cards will put up 30 or more. However, to cover or win they won’t have to, as the Steelers offense leaves plenty to be desired. Ben Roethlisberger gets the job done but man, this guy takes a ton of chances in that he throws the ball up for grabs in the same fashion as Brett Favre. He’s been very lucky to have not been picked off more than he has and in this league you just can’t keep getting away with those erratic throws. My only concern in this one is the Cardinals kicking game, as punter Ben Graham shanks too many punts and if he’s kicking deep inside his own end it could give the Steelers some great field position. Having said that, I’m not going to let that deter me from taking back these points, as the Cards are playing great football and should they score first, which is a distinct possibility, the Steelers will be extremely hard-pressed to not only cover but to win outright. Finally, the last time the Steelers were in the Super Bowl in 2006, they beat the Seahawks and every reporter, fan and observer questioned the refereeing in that one. Some even went as far as saying the fix was in. The Steelers got every call and than some. They got calls that weren’t there and they had nothing called against them. You can’t take the human element out of anything and the refs are human and there’s no way they aren’t aware of the bias that was showed towards the Steelers. Some media was even calling for an inquiry into that game, that’s how biased the refereeing was. The point is, don’t expect the Steelers to get favorable calls in this one. Folks, I’m calling the upset but in now way am I passing up these generous points. Play: Arizona +6½ +1.00 (Risking 3 units).
indiancowboy
5 Unit Play. #102. Take Arizona Cardinals +7 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday @ 6:20pm). I will gladly take the team that defeated my Falcons at home. Bear in mind that these two teams actually met a few years in ago in Arizona and the Cardinals handled this team fine 21-14 on September 30th, 2007. Why do I mention that game? Well, Kurt Warner picked up apart this Steelers defense fairly well and note, he only ended up playing roughly half the game in that contest and completed14 of 21 attempts, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions. Well, now Kurt will get to play the entire game. Big Ben did throw for 2 touchdowns in that game but also threw 2 interceptions. Bear in mind that this Cardinals team deserves to be here for the simple fact they beat the Falcons, Eagles and the best team in the NFC Panthers on the road - and frankly, hammered them on the road. Although Boldin has been grumbling, I'm sure those issues have been ironed out for the Big Game and frankly, it ends up being a great deception as the Cards are well focused for this game. Look, the Cardinals are made of many, many ex-steeler coaches and contact. From the Cardinals head coach who knows Big Ben inside out to the assistant coach who knows their offensive line very well, the Cardinals will be more than prepared for this game. Nothing against Mike Tomlin, but Ken Whisenhunt is the better coach. The Cardinals have nothing to lose, they will come in this game ready to wheel and deal - remember Kurt has won his Super Bowl already - and Whisenhurt is awesome and getting his players up and ready for the big game. After all, look at the last 3 contests for Cardinals. They were all games in which these had to fight adversity, and either come back or take on the underdog role. In short, the Cardinals could very well win this game outright. At worst, I expect this team to lose by a field goal to 5 points today but bear in mind the Cardinals have the offense and defensive pressure schemes to get it done today. I'll say it again, this game will come down to coaching and Whisenhunt is by far the better coach and I think that will end up being the difference today. Yes, the Steelers have the better defense, but if there is anyone that can pick apart that defense, it is Kurt Warner. He did it two years ago when he didn't have all the weapons he has today, he did it at Carolina and let's not forget this Cardinals offensive line has played together all season long. That's right, they have started together the entire season and this defensive line of the Cardinals is stout as well. I will take Arizona once again to win outright or just fall short in a competitive game. The Arizona Cardinals have nothing to lose. Heck, they have nothing to lose and should not even be here in some respects. This team will have a no holds bar approach and there is only one kryptonite to the Pittsburgh Steelers defense - someone who is as seasoned as it comes - Kurt Warner gets it done.
3 Unit Play. Take Over 46.5 between the Pittsburgh Steelers @ Arizona Cardinals (Sunday @ 6:20pm). I can see the arguments for both sides as it relates to how the side will play out. But, as per the total in this game, there is every reason to think that this has a great shot at going over. After all, considering the fact that the Steelers will take a page from the Eagles 2nd half book against the Cardinals, considering the Cardinals and their potent offense of their own spreading the field with Fitzgerald and Boldin, the over being 7-1 ATS when the Steelers are favored and the over being 38-13 for the Cardinals in their last 51 games as Underdogs, I epxect this game to go over. After all, there is plenty of blood between the coaching staffs of these two teams as many of the Steelers ex-coaches are now the lead at Arizona which makes for a great story line here - more importantly, it makes for an over.
1 Unit Prop Wager: Longest Field Goal of the Game Over 44.5 (-110): Can you imagine a drive stalling at the 30-35 yard line for either team? I sure can. I believe both these offenses will have success and consequently will drive the ball successfully down field. Of course, this does not mean they will get to the endzone each time as I believe the defenses will tighten up as the opposing offenses approach the endzone. I look for both teams to allow the other to get across midfield, but then tighten up and consequently results in several long field goal attempts. There is no reason why there should not be a successfull field goal made over 44.5 and who knows, maybe that field goal could very well be the game winner.
1 Unit Prop Wager: Field Goals Made: Over 3.5 (-110). If you read the analysis is above, you will understand the take I have on this game. Once again, I believe both teams will have success moving the ball on the opposing team and who is to say that one team alone might not chuck up four field goals? Look for both offensive coordinators to have success but then drives to stall as they opposing team gets further down field. I expect around 5 field goals, so this is a take considering it is just at 3.5. Heck, the first half alone could yield 3 field goals and the second half will yield at least one in my opinion.
1 Unit Prop Wager: Cardinals will Convert more than 4.5 - 3rd down Conversions (-110). The Arizona Cardinals would not have made it to the playoffs, would not have won their division, would not have beat the Falcons at home, would not have crushed the Panthers on the road and would not have beat the Eagles at home if they did not time and time again convert third downs. They are not going to Tampa like the Seattle Seahawks to get embarrassed by this team. The Cardinals will be fired up, ready to roll and there is no better kryptonite to the Steelers defense, than Kurt Warner. I look for the Cardinals to convert several third downs in one drive alone and to have a no holds bar approach and they could very well achieve this mark by mid 3rd quarter.
Good luck,
Indian Cowboy.
SPORTS ADVISORS
Pittsburgh (14-4, 11-7 ATS) vs. Arizona (12-7 SU and ATS)
The NFC champion Cardinals hope to successfully finish off a stunning run to their first Super Bowl when they meet the AFC champion Steelers, who are going after a record sixth Lombardi Trophy.
Arizona blew all of a 24-6 halftime lead in the NFC Championship Game two weeks ago against Philadelphia, then chewed up nearly half the fourth quarter en route to the winning touchdown in a 32-25 victory as a 3½-point home pup. The Cards posted their fourth straight win and cover – and second in a row from the underdog role – behind a stellar game from QB Kurt Warner (21 of 28, 279 yards, 4 TDs), who had no turnovers. WR Larry Fitzgerald (9 catches, 152 yards, 3 TDs) was once again dominant, and RB Edgerrin James (16 carries, 73 yards) helped loosen things up for the passing game.
In the victory over Philadelphia The Cardinals got outgained 454-369, allowing Eagles QB Donovan McNabb to have a huge second half and finish with 375 yards passing and three TDs. But Arizona won the turnover battle 3-1 and is now an eye-popping plus-9 in turnover differential through three playoff games, including seven INTs, after finishing with an even turnover ratio in the regular season.
Pittsburgh dropped Baltimore 23-14 as a six-point home chalk in the AFC Championship Game, yielding only a touchdown in the second and fourth quarters to its division rival in posting a third consecutive SU and ATS win. The Steelers defense allowed a stifling 198 total yards and forced Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco (13 of 30, 141 yards, 0 TDs) into three INTs, leading to a 4-1 turnover edge, including safety Troy Palomalu’s game- and spread-clinching interception return for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh has a plus-5 turnover differential in its two playoff games, after going just plus-4 for the entire regular season.
Offensively, QB Ben Roethlisberger (16 of 33, 255 yards, 1 TD) wasn’t brilliant, but he had no INTs or lost fumbles, despite getting sacked four times. The Steelers couldn’t add much with their ground game, though, finishing with just 275 total yards in a battle of the league’s top two defenses.
These teams have met just twice this decade, with both going 1-1 SU and ATS. Last season, Arizona – led by then-first-year head coach and former Steelers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt – posted a 21-14 home victory as a 5½-point underdog. In that game, Warner came off the bench to replace a hurt Matt Leinart and went 14-for-21 for 132 yards and one TD, while Fitzgerald grabbed 11 balls for 123 yards. Roethlisberger finished just 17-for-32 for 244 yards with two TDs offset by two INTs. Arizona finished with a 301-282 edge in total yards.
Pittsburgh’s top WR Hines Ward, who sat out last year’s game at Arizona with an injury, sprained his knee in the AFC Championship game against Baltimore, but he practiced fully on Friday and is expected to play today. Roethlisberger is also listed as probable despite bruised ribs. The Cardinals enter this contest with no significant injuries.
While this is Arizona’s first Super Bowl appearance, Pittsburgh is making its seventh trip to the big game. The Steelers are 5-1 SU and ATS in the previous six, including a 21-10 victory over Seattle as a four-point favorite in Super Bowl XL in Detroit three years ago.
Among the 12 playoff participants, Pittsburgh is sixth offensively at 308.5 ypg, but the Steelers are second in scoring at 29 ppg. In the regular season, the Steelers were in the back half of the league in every major offensive statistic, with per-game averages of 21.7 points (20th), 311.9 total yards (22nd), 105.6 rushing yards (23rd) and 206.3 passing yards (17th).
Roethlisberger was the NFL’s 24th-rated QB, competing 59.9 percent of his passes for 3,301 yards, offsetting 17 TD throws with 15 INTs, but he has no INTs and two TD throws in the playoffs. RB Willie Parker, limited to 11 games because of injury, rushed for 791 yards (3.8 ypc) and five TDs, and WR Hines Ward (81 catches, 1,043 yards, 7 TDs) tied for 14th in receptions and was 15th in receiving yards.
The Steelers have allowed 244 yards (2nd) and 19 points per game (tied for 3rd) in the playoffs, following up on their sterling regular season, in which they sported the league’s No. 1-ranked defense in points allowed (a meager 13.9 per game), total yards (237.2 per game) and passing yards (156.9), along with the second-best run-stopping squad (80.2 ypg).
Arizona has fielded the top-scoring unit in the playoffs, at 31.7 ppg and is the first team in NFL history with three straight 30-plus point playoff games, and the Cardinals are third in total offense, averaging 362.0 ypg. That certainly matches up with the team’s regular season stats, as Arizona ranked in the top five in the NFL in scoring offense (26.7 ppg, 3rd), total offense (365.8 ypg, 4th) and passing offense (292.1 ypg, 2nd). Warner completed 67.1 percent of his passes for 4,583 yards (second) and 30 TDs (third), against 14 INTs. Fitzgerald led the NFC in catches (96, 4th overall) and yards (1,431, 2nd overall), and he tied Detroit’s Calvin Johnson for the league lead in receiving touchdowns with 12.
Fitzgerald has been a monster in the playoffs, with 23 catches for a postseason record 419 yards, along with five TD receptions, three of which came in the first half against the Eagles.
Defensively, Arizona is sixth in the playoffs in yards allowed (324.3 per game) and eighth in points allowed (20.7). In the regular season, the Cards ranked a lowly 28th in points allowed (26.6 ppg) and 19th in yards allowed (331.5 total ypg).
The Cardinals made six trips to the Eastern Time Zone this season, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS, but the lone SU win was huge: a 33-13 bashing of second-seeded Carolina as a healthy 10-point underdog in the divisional round of the postseason. Along with their current 4-0 SU and ATS surge, the Cards are on ATS rolls of 4-0 on grass, 4-1 catching 3½-10 points, 4-1 in the playoffs and 12-5 against winning teams. On the down side, prior to its playoff run, Arizona had gone 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS against winning teams this season.
The Steelers are on a 7-1 SU and ATS spree dating to the regular season, winning by an average score of 25-14. Pittsburgh is on a bundle of additional spread-covering streaks, including 7-0 in the playoffs, 4-0 laying points in the postseason, 6-1 against winning teams, 6-1 on grass, 6-1 after a SU win, 5-1 after a spread-cover and 24-11-1 as a chalk of 3½-10 points. The Steelers are also on a 5-1 SU and ATS uptick against winning teams, following an 0-5 ATS plunge earlier this season against teams with a winning record.
Since 1994, seven teams have won a Super Bowl and returned to the championship game within three years; Pittsburgh now makes it eight, having won the big game following the 2005 season. However, the previous seven teams went just 1-6 ATS on their return trip, including heavily New England losing outright to the Giants as a 12-point chalk last year.
The favorites and underdogs are an even 5-5 ATS so far in this season’s playoffs, with the SU winner going a perfect 10-0 ATS. However, the Giants’ upset of the Patriots last year gave the underdogs a 5-2 ATS mark in the last seven Super Bowls.
The over for Pittsburgh is on tears of 12-2 in the playoffs, 7-1 with the Steelers a postseason chalk, 11-5 overall with the Steelers laying points and 6-2 after a SU win. Likewise, the over for Arizona is on a boatload of runs, including 35-16 overall (7-2 in their last nine games), 20-6 after an ATS win, 22-8 after a SU win, 38-13 with the Cardinals catching points and 19-7 against winning teams. However, the total has stayed low in the past four Super Bowls, the longest stretch of “unders” in Super Bowl history since seven consecutive “unders” from 1969-75.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER
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Cardinals Over 2-1/2 Sacks