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Question on the .5
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=36783
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Author:  Brick [ Thu Sep 03, 2009 5:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Question on the .5

Attention gambling gurus.

Is there a statistical breakdown of how .5 affects a college or NFL game in either direction?

For instance, -3 vs. -3.5
-7 vs. -6.5

How much are you giving up or gaining by getting the .5 less or more on the standard scores?

Author:  Irish Boy [ Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Question on the .5

I don't have it in front of me right now, but if memory serves, the difference between 3 and 3.5 is something like 35 cents (-110 to -145). 7 to 7.5 is something like 15 cents. 2.5 to 3 and 6.5 to 7 are also pretty important half points. The others are more insignificant, but still not valueless. I'll try to find the chart.

Author:  SHARK [ Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Question on the .5

I think the .5 in a betting line means that a team that's favored by 3.5 points needs to win by 4 for you to win money at the window. The point spreads in football, for instance, are set by the way the public tends to put the money and will go up and down depending on how much $$$$ is wagered on both sides. For instance, if the Packers are favored to beat the Bears September 13th by 3 points at the start of the week, and if there's a lot of $$$$ on the Bears, the spread will likely move towards Chicago. If there's more $$$$ on the Packers, the number will likely go higher towards Green Bay. One thing's for sure...That half point hook will get you every time.

Author:  Irish Boy [ Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Question on the .5

SHARK wrote:
I think the .5 in a betting line means that a team that's favored by 3.5 points needs to win by 4 for you to win money at the window. The point spreads in football, for instance, are set by the way the public tends to put the money and will go up and down depending on how much $$$$ is wagered on both sides. For instance, if the Packers are favored to beat the Bears September 13th by 3 points at the start of the week, and if there's a lot of $$$$ on the Bears, the spread will likely move towards Chicago. If there's more $$$$ on the Packers, the number will likely go higher towards Green Bay. One thing's for sure...That half point hook will get you every time.


:lol: :lol: Yeah, I know what he meant. But that half point doesn't always cost you the same amount. Move from 2 to 2.5, and it's not that big of a deal. 2.5 to 3 is much bigger, and 3 to 3.5 is bigger still.

Author:  Brick [ Fri Sep 04, 2009 9:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Question on the .5

Irish Boy wrote:
I don't have it in front of me right now, but if memory serves, the difference between 3 and 3.5 is something like 35 cents (-110 to -145). 7 to 7.5 is something like 15 cents. 2.5 to 3 and 6.5 to 7 are also pretty important half points. The others are more insignificant, but still not valueless. I'll try to find the chart.

Thanks.

Author:  Coast2Coast [ Fri Sep 04, 2009 9:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Question on the .5

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/H ... lator.aspx

Author:  Chus [ Fri Sep 04, 2009 10:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Question on the .5

Don't be a stranger, Coast.

Author:  bigfan [ Sun Sep 06, 2009 11:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Question on the .5

SHARK wrote:
I think the .5 in a betting line means that a team that's favored by 3.5 points needs to win by 4 for you to win money at the window. The point spreads in football, for instance, are set by the way the public tends to put the money and will go up and down depending on how much $$$$ is wagered on both sides. For instance, if the Packers are favored to beat the Bears September 13th by 3 points at the start of the week, and if there's a lot of $$$$ on the Bears, the spread will likely move towards Chicago. If there's more $$$$ on the Packers, the number will likely go higher towards Green Bay. One thing's for sure...That half point hook will get you every time.


lol

Author:  Brick [ Mon Sep 07, 2009 1:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Question on the .5

Coast2Coast wrote:
http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Half+Point+Calculator.aspx

Thanks Coast.

Author:  Coast2Coast [ Thu Sep 10, 2009 4:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Question on the .5

You are welcome. The calculator is based on years of game results and it's necessary to use that to answer your question because the value of the .5 depends on which sport, which league and the spread of the game in question. The push rate on 3 in the NFL is now 9.79%. Thus, buying the half on or off of 3 in the NFL would pay off 9.79% of the time. However, buying that half on or off 3 in the NFL costs you 25%. The push rate on the 7 in the NFL is 5.7%, and the books charge 15 cents to buy that half. The push rates for every other point in the NFL are below 5%, so the books only charge you 10 cents juice to buy those hooks.

In college, the push rate on the 3 is 6.3% and 5.3% on 7. The books charge 15 cents for the 3, but just 10 cents on the 7 and every other number.

Author:  Brick [ Thu Sep 10, 2009 4:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Question on the .5

Is it ever a good idea to buy points?

Author:  Coast2Coast [ Thu Sep 10, 2009 4:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Question on the .5

Mathematically, no. If you are totally rational and always try to be +EV in sports investing, then no, never do it.

Intuitively...well I guess that's why they call it gambling and why most people lose at it.

Author:  Chus [ Thu Sep 10, 2009 5:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Question on the .5

If the book allows you to buy points, it is probably a good thing for them.

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