Ask this guy....
| Chicago Fanatics Message Board https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/ |
|
| How do I become a smarter horse better? https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=37336 |
Page 1 of 1 |
| Author: | Brick [ Fri Sep 18, 2009 12:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | How do I become a smarter horse better? |
I only go to the track every so often but I would like to be able to read the booklet they hand you when you walk in and be able to use some basic strategy. Web sites, books, blogs, befriend a mobster? Help me help myself and hopefully make smarter bets. |
|
| Author: | Douchebag [ Fri Sep 18, 2009 12:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Ask Larry Horse. |
|
| Author: | Irish Boy [ Fri Sep 18, 2009 1:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Boilermaker Rick wrote: I only go to the track every so often but I would like to be able to read the booklet they hand you when you walk in and be able to use some basic strategy. Web sites, books, blogs, befriend a mobster? Help me help myself and hopefully make smarter bets. There's a lot of crap out there. However, there are some really good writers on the sport. Some of the books are a bit outdated, but the ideas are extremely helpful and will get you thinking in the way you should if you want to bet horses. I'll give a few: Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century, Steve Davidowitz (amazon link http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1932910700/ref=pd_lpo_k2_dp_sr_1?pf_rd_p=486539851&pf_rd_s=lpo-top-stripe-1&pf_rd_t=201&pf_rd_i=0452270421&pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_r=1VW5M6F4BR3R39A1VYKG): Perhaps the authoritative text in the field. Davidowitz provides an introduction to all the main angles: trainers, jockeys, speed ratings, pace ratings, track biases, trip handicapping, bloodlines, etc. This is an updated version of the classic; I have the 2nd ediction, which was written in the mid 90s, and still consult it from time to time. Written with the beginner in mind, but not a text that wastes time explaining the obvious. Tom Ainslie's Complete Guide to Betting Thoroughbreds: (amazon link http://www.amazon.com/Ainslies-Complete-Guide-Thoroughbred-Racing/dp/0671656554): Considered the alpha text for modern handicapping. A lot of it is out of date, but Ainslie does a nice job of summarizing the mathematical aspects of what to look for. He's also a good writer. The Winning Horseplayer, Beyer on Speed, and Picking Winners: Andrew Beyer (http://www.amazon.com/Winning-Horseplayer-Advanced-Thoroughbred-Handicapping/dp/0618871780/ref=pd_sim_b_2): Three classic texts by perhaps the most popular public handicapper of the past quarter century. Beyer is an amazing writer- besides from knowing his handicapping, his knack for telling stories is top-notch- and he runs through the methodology for compiling his Beyer speed figures, which are found in the Daily Racing Form and perhaps are the single most accurrate popular tool for evaluating the ability of a horse. Any of these texts is highly recommended; Beyer on Speed is the most modern, but is about 15 years old now. He also wrote a book called "My $50,000 year at the races" back in the 70s, which isn't so much a handicapping book, but is a lot of fun. Exotic Betting, Steve Crist (http://www.amazon.com/Exotic-Betting-Multihorse-Multirace-Racings/dp/1932910921/ref=pd_sim_b_5) Looks at strategy for playing bets outside of the standard win, place, and show. A handicapping book, to be sure, but even more of a money management book. You can also read Crist almost everyday on the DRF.com website, where he details his pick-4 and pick-6 plays in New York and does a nice job of breaking down his thought process. |
|
| Author: | Brick [ Fri Sep 18, 2009 2:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Thanks Irish Boy. That looks like more than enough to get me started. |
|
| Author: | Irish Boy [ Fri Sep 18, 2009 2:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Start with the Davidowitz. If you read that and find an idea or angle that really appeals to you, find some books that are more specific to that topic. I'll be happy to provide suggestions if you reach that point. |
|
| Author: | Phil McCracken [ Fri Sep 18, 2009 2:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Ask this guy....
|
|
| Author: | doug - evergreen park [ Fri Sep 18, 2009 2:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
find yourself a woman to pick horses based on names. that's what I do... |
|
| Author: | newper [ Fri Sep 18, 2009 2:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
If you learn how to read a program and you can figure out how the horse likes to run (does he like to get out in front early, run just off the pace, close from way back, etc.) and then compare it to how many other horses are like that in the race... the fewer the better typically. Also see what has been winning of that type of horse at that distance during the day/week/whatever. Tracks usually are biased towards one type or another. Also don't discount the class that a horse is racing in. If a horse has been racing 100k allowances without a top four finish and drops to a 40k claimer while another horse has won 2 of the last three at 15k claimer, don't get totally suckered into the 1st place finishes. |
|
| Author: | Brick [ Fri Sep 18, 2009 3:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Irish Boy wrote: Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century, Steve Davidowitz (amazon link http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1932910700/ref=pd_lpo_k2_dp_sr_1?pf_rd_p=486539851&pf_rd_s=lpo-top-stripe-1&pf_rd_t=201&pf_rd_i=0452270421&pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_r=1VW5M6F4BR3R39A1VYKG): Perhaps the authoritative text in the field. Davidowitz provides an introduction to all the main angles: trainers, jockeys, speed ratings, pace ratings, track biases, trip handicapping, bloodlines, etc. This is an updated version of the classic; I have the 2nd ediction, which was written in the mid 90s, and still consult it from time to time. Written with the beginner in mind, but not a text that wastes time explaining the obvious. The Winning Horseplayer, Beyer on Speed, and Picking Winners: Andrew Beyer (http://www.amazon.com/Winning-Horseplayer-Advanced-Thoroughbred-Handicapping/dp/0618871780/ref=pd_sim_b_2): Three classic texts by perhaps the most popular public handicapper of the past quarter century. Beyer is an amazing writer- besides from knowing his handicapping, his knack for telling stories is top-notch- and he runs through the methodology for compiling his Beyer speed figures, which are found in the Daily Racing Form and perhaps are the single most accurrate popular tool for evaluating the ability of a horse. Any of these texts is highly recommended; Beyer on Speed is the most modern, but is about 15 years old now. He also wrote a book called "My $50,000 year at the races" back in the 70s, which isn't so much a handicapping book, but is a lot of fun. Starting with these two. I wanted to get up to $25 on amazon so I got my free shipping. I liked how the second one because it sounded interesting. Thanks. After I take a look at it I'll have more questions I'm sure. |
|
| Author: | bigfan [ Sat Sep 19, 2009 10:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
While this might seem like an obvious statement, the higher stakes races have horses that perform truer to history. Thus betting a bunch on a $6G claiming race 5 Fur race 1 Arlington is like flipping a coin. HOWEVER! I still subscribe to my Arlington Theory, the track wants you to win that first race! They want the 90% of very casual wagering public to have a good time and winning is part of that. They dont care how much they win, even if it is $5 opn a $2 bet! Now go buy some $6 slices of pizza! lol I won't get into all the tips horse guys I used to hnag with gave me but -Heavier horses in long races. Evidence of strength. -Lasix first time users, blood clotting medication alleged to have boosting power (Do they still use lasix) -Blinkers on first time, helps horse focus. -Slow starting history+outside gate= no bet -Horses that like the rail, worth betting on, shorter track |
|
| Author: | Eaglo Jeff [ Sat Sep 19, 2009 10:57 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
I don't know jack shit about handicapping horse races, but I do work at Balmoral and have made a few simple observations when it comes to harness racing at Balmoral: -The horse that sprints out of the paddock during the post parade quite often wins, especially if it has good odds. -Mike Oosting seems to win a lot of races later in the night (10-14). -Listen to the handicapper, Mike Antenitus (sp?) before the race. He's usually right. http://www.balmoralpark.com/index.cfm |
|
| Author: | Irish Boy [ Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Quote: While this might seem like an obvious statement, the higher stakes races have horses that perform truer to history. Thus betting a bunch on a $6G claiming race 5 Fur race 1 Arlington is like flipping a coin. I always assumed that was the case as well, but I've read quite a bit that indicates that this isn't the case. Longshots perform just as well in every class of races, and favorites win at around 30-33% in every sort of race. |
|
| Author: | Irish Boy [ Wed Oct 07, 2009 12:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Had a chance to look at any of these, Rick? Helpful? Unhelpful? |
|
| Author: | Brick [ Wed Oct 07, 2009 1:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Only read a little so far but so far so good. Any advice on betting at Belmont Park? |
|
| Author: | Irish Boy [ Wed Oct 07, 2009 1:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Not specifically in regards to Belmont, but New York is a little bit of a unique creature in several ways that you'll want to at least be aware of. First, the pools are bigger, which means more to win, which is nice. Second, the Pick 4/Pick 6 pools are much, much larger. You need a big bankroll to play those wagers with any consistency, but where it can help is in the last leg of the Pick 4 or Pick 6, when the track posts the will-pays. The track will say "if you got the first three horses in the pick four right, you make this much if you get the fourth horse right" and give you the amount for each horse. It can be interesting to compare those amounts to the odds for win bets. One other factor: I mentioned that Beyer speed figures are probably today the single largest determining factor for odds at post time. That might not be true in New York; for decades, large New York bettors have used "the sheets", which is a separate compolation of speed figures created by a small syndicate originally started by Len Ragozin. You can learn more about the differences later, but if you ever get to a race where the odds seem out-of-whack ("Why is that horse the favorite?"), there's a good chance the sheets are driving the betting. Just something to be aware of, and a potential opportunity; if you trust your handicapping, more so than in other jurisdictions, don't let the tote board dissuade you. The number the sheets spit out is often good, but gets blindly played by a lot of New York bettors, and there are some opportunities created. |
|
| Author: | Guest [ Wed Oct 07, 2009 6:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Jockey Alan Garcia gives you an honest shot on any horse he is on. |
|
| Author: | newper [ Wed Oct 07, 2009 7:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Guest wrote: Jockey Alan Garcia gives you an honest shot on any horse he is on. This post brought to you by our guest, jockey Alan Garcia. |
|
| Author: | spmack [ Wed Oct 07, 2009 7:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Boilermaker Rick wrote: How do I become a smarter horse better? Just ask Irish Boy for his picks....and do the opposite.  Love Ya, IB. |
|
| Author: | a retard [ Thu Oct 08, 2009 11:16 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
No viewtopic.php?f=100&t=17984 |
|
| Author: | Brick [ Mon Oct 12, 2009 10:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Heading to Belmont Park on Friday. Any insight? http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbRaceEntriesDisplay.cfm?TRK=BEL&CY=USA&DATE=10/16/2009&STYLE=BEL |
|
| Author: | Irish Boy [ Mon Oct 12, 2009 10:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
I don't know enough about New York to tell you about the horses just by name, but one thing to watch for early in the Belmont meet is that Saratoga form isn't always the same as Belmont form. For any horses that just race in NY (which will probably be most of them), if you find a horse that was running pretty well at Belmont in May, June, and July, then cooled off at Saratoga in August and September, it might be worth looking past the recent poor form if you can get a good price. |
|
| Author: | Regular Reader [ Mon Oct 12, 2009 10:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Guest wrote: Jockey Alan Garcia gives you an honest shot on any horse he is on. How in the world did (a)"Guest" post here???? Are we returning to the Board of years gone by? 
|
|
| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Tue Oct 13, 2009 8:25 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Boilermaker Rick wrote: Heading to Belmont Park on Friday. Any insight? http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbRaceEntriesDisplay.cfm?TRK=BEL&CY=USA&DATE=10/16/2009&STYLE=BEL Well how the hell did you do? Learn anything? Horse racing like any gambling has to do with managing your money!
|
|
| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Wed Oct 14, 2009 11:11 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Belmont is a great track but hard to make money. I've had some huge scores there (800+ dollar tris) but also had some bad beats. I agree with the Saratoga to Belmont piece. Saratoga runs completely different than Belmont. Alot of times at Saratoga it is such a speed favoring track that everyone will be trying to get to the lead. Belmont runs a bit truer to form. Without having any specific races to look at, here are some quick thoughts based on past experience, but can't say much how they will work now. 1. Stalkers and Pressers do well at Belmont. With the long stretch, deep closers can do well with a hot pace. 2. Dutrow and Pletcher are the trainers to beat out there. Both have great stock on track. 3. In terms of jockers, Alan Garcia is pretty good, but so are John Velasquez and Rajiv Maragh. 4. Turf racing at Belmont is awesome and tends to run to form. |
|
| Author: | Irish Boy [ Wed Oct 14, 2009 12:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Tying both to the point about turf racing at Belmont HV made and the past form point, New York (as I'm sure you know) has been receiving a ridiculous amount of rain all summer. As such, a large number of the scheduled turf races have been moved to the dirt tracks, leading to a lot of turf horses not running as often, and a lot of turf horses running on the dirt, which they don't prefer. So for any turf horses, it might be worth looking back to how they were performing back when they had an opportunity to run on the turf three, four, five times in a row, and not putting too much stock into how they performed on a muddy track they probably didn't want to run on anyway. |
|
| Author: | Brick [ Wed Oct 14, 2009 12:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Thanks. When you go for a day at the track do you pretty much always know your picks or do you try and gauge the track bias of the day? Looks like Rain/Wind is the forecast for Friday so I'm assuming there won't be much on turf. |
|
| Author: | Irish Boy [ Wed Oct 14, 2009 1:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How do I become a smarter horse better? |
Boilermaker Rick wrote: Thanks. When you go for a day at the track do you pretty much always know your picks or do you try and gauge the track bias of the day? Looks like Rain/Wind is the forecast for Friday so I'm assuming there won't be much on turf. Go in with an idea of your picks, but if the first two races indicate some sort of bias, be prepared to alter your picks. Biases are somewhat rare; I think players think they exist more than they actually do. So if 5-2 and 9-5 horses win from the front in the first two races, don't necessarily say "looks like there's a speed bias", because those horses are just better. The only time I'd really disregard my prior handicapping for a bias is if something really stunning happens in the first couple of races. For example, maybe the pace will be very fast early on, and the horses that were up in front early still finish in that order late. Or maybe a 20-1 shot gets the front, is challenged, and the other participants still don't make up ground. But in absence of something like that, I'd stick to what you thought before you got to the track. |
|
| Page 1 of 1 | All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ] |
| Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group https://www.phpbb.com/ |
|