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| Thoughts about the Madness https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=44107 |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Wed Mar 17, 2010 2:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Thoughts about the Madness |
Wednesday 641 Tulsa-Kent State OVER 133.5 This year's Tulsa team was not the slowish, defensive-minded team of previous years. Their D stats may look respectable, but you have to recognize that so many of their games were against the pitiful offenses of CUSA. When they have played teams in the conf. with good offenses, or played teams out of conference, they regularly gave up 70+ points and shooting percentage in the high 40s. When you play the schedule Tulsa played, you will have respectable defense stats. But take only the games against teams comparable in rating to Kent (Nebraska, Missouri State, Ohio, Nevada) you find Tulsa gave up nearly 80 ppg to those teams. Kent is no great D either, allowing opponents to shoot nearly 44% on the year. Pace should be near 140 and I expect both teams to be at or above 70. Thursday Tennessee -3 vs. San Diego State SDS is probably a popular pick this week because they won the MWC and the Vols were whacked by Kentucky. SDS played four in four and now travel to the East coast to play on Thursday. Now we might think this should be no big deal for athletes. After all, they have 3-4 days of rest in between along with a x hour plane flight. No big deal? I'm no expert in biology or fatigue, but I do remember history. These kinds of situations have left kids in less-than-peak condition too many times to count. Friday Cornell +4 vs. Temple I have had Cornell rated a tick higher than Temple almost continuously since January. Both teams have played to their numbers pretty regularly. Temple may have the defense to stop Cornell's shooting. Then again, maybe not. Oakland +10 v. Pitt I make this 7.5. This is not the same quality of Pitt team as years past, but this might be the best Summit/Mid Con team in the dance in years. The big guy will be a load. Purdue -4 vs. Siena Is Joe Public over-valuing the loss of Hummel? I make this line 7 and that includes taking Purdue down 4 points for the loss of Hummel. If you think he is worth more than that, then you might not agree with this. I think we also have this factor in play here: one reason many gamblers lose is because they remember too much the last game a team played and bet according to that game, rather than according to their overall range of performance. People saw Purdue lose badly to Minny and think they will play like that the next game out. Good luck with that kind of thinking. Missouri-Clemson over 138 Georgia Tech-oklahoma state over 136.5 Two very similar games of ACC vs. Big 12 teams who all like to play fast. Sure there are a few good defenses among this group, but they weren't nearly as prolific on either side of the ball in conference against teams outside their conference. Conference teams know each others' stuff. Non-conf games involving these kinds of teams are generally higher scoring. I expect both these games to be pretty open court kind of games without a lot of long possessions. |
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| Author: | Brick [ Wed Mar 17, 2010 2:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Coast2Coast wrote: Purdue -4 vs. Siena I'm certainly not a gambling expert but I think you are right on.Is Joe Public over-valuing the loss of Hummel? I make this line 7 and that includes taking Purdue down 4 points for the loss of Hummel. If you think he is worth more than that, then you might not agree with this. I think we also have this factor in play here: one reason many gamblers lose is because they remember too much the last game a team played and bet according to that game, rather than according to their overall range of performance. People saw Purdue lose badly to Minny and think they will play like that the next game out. Good luck with that kind of thinking. E'Twaun Moore had the worst game I've ever seen against Minnesota he's not going to do that again. Purdue is going to have matchup hell against a team with a lot of height. For instance, Minnesota has big contributors at 6'7,6'8, 6'10 and 6'11. Michigan State dominated them on the boards also. As soon as Purdue faces a team that can overwhelm them in the post I'd take them to lose. I think they'll do very well in this game though. |
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| Author: | Brick [ Wed Mar 17, 2010 2:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Also, thanks Coast. Looking forward to your picks in the second week. Last year you significantly aided my winnings in Vegas. You helped supplement my other losses! |
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| Author: | Chus [ Wed Mar 17, 2010 3:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Coast, where ya been? |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Wed Mar 17, 2010 5:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Welcome back Coast. Coast over/unders are good as gold |
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| Author: | Spaulding [ Wed Mar 17, 2010 5:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
| Hope all is well.
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| Author: | spmack [ Wed Mar 17, 2010 5:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Coast, we know you didn't come back for the NCAA Tournament. You came back for the CSFMB Tournament. Nice way to get votes... Kidding, man...welcome back. |
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| Author: | At Large [ Wed Mar 17, 2010 8:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Nice call on tonight's total, C2C -- thanks for posting. |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Wed Mar 17, 2010 10:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Darkside can now apologize. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Thu Mar 18, 2010 7:40 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
good dolphin wrote: Welcome back Coast. Coast over/unders are good as gold loves me some coast over/unders Thanks for the money last night. Just as you predicted, both teams in the 70s. |
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| Author: | Beardown [ Thu Mar 18, 2010 9:49 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Yeah. Coast covers his first total by 16 points. 
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Thu Mar 18, 2010 11:12 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
One for Thursday night Ohio-Georgetown over 140 The best number of 138 is gone, but 140-41 is still good here. Ohio is the best offense in the Mac and plays at a 69 pace, even with a bunch of slow teams in the Mac. GU should be pretty efficient offensively in this game and might even dominate on the offensive end with their size and quickness. GU will play fast in this game and I expect them to get shots without a bunch of long possessions. I expect Georgetown to get to 80 in this game, so root for Ohio to get points. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Thu Mar 18, 2010 1:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Coast2Coast wrote: One for Thursday night Ohio-Georgetown over 140 The best number of 138 is gone, but 140-41 is still good here. Ohio is the best offense in the Mac and plays at a 69 pace, even with a bunch of slow teams in the Mac. GU should be pretty efficient offensively in this game and might even dominate on the offensive end with their size and quickness. GU will play fast in this game and I expect them to get shots without a bunch of long possessions. I expect Georgetown to get to 80 in this game, so root for Ohio to get points. 139.5 is available at matchbook for -111 |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Thu Mar 18, 2010 8:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
The half a point didn't even come close to mattering...passed the 140 mark with almost 8 minutes to go. Once again, thanks Coast. I don't know if I will be following you on the Tennessee side. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Fri Mar 19, 2010 9:43 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
The two Friday totals I gave a few days ago have moved a few points from where I gave them out. If you're late to those parties, the numbers are still good at 141 (up from 138.5) and 139 (up from 136.5), though I might not play them for as much at those numbers. Today I'm also playing Cornell-Temple over 119.5 (good to 122) Temple is a very good defense, but cornelll will spread them out and has a nice outside/inside game. This line reflects Temple's pace stats, but I think Cornell will speed Temple up a bit. Michigan State-New Mex State over 148 (good to 150) Track meet of the day. New Mex will shoot inside 15 seconds nearly every possession, even against a good defense. MSU should have their way inside as well. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Fri Mar 19, 2010 10:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Thanks for the easy winner with the G'Town total. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Fri Mar 19, 2010 1:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
and there goes Coast's third total in a row going over...he is slipping a little, this one went over with only 7:30 left in the game. Once again thanks Coast. Missouri-Clemson is at 142.5 and you said your recommendation is only good to 141. I may still put a little on it. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Fri Mar 19, 2010 4:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Four in a row as he hits Missouri-Clemson over |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Fri Mar 19, 2010 5:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Thanks GD. Good start. I'll take 6-1-1 any time and hope we can add to that with the two tonight. Time to start getting the Saturday bets in before the lines start moving. Ohio-Tennessee OVER 140.5 This is exactly the kind of opponent that both of these teams like -- a team that will play pretty fast, play mostly an open-court game, and have more than occasional defensive lapses. If Ohio's hot shooting continues another day, this one not only goes way over, but the Mac will have a Sweet 16 team. Tennessee was lucky the way they played last night vs. San Diego St. to have survived...and I was lucky to get a push out of that game. They can't play that badly on offense two games in a row, can they? |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Sat Mar 20, 2010 10:26 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Sorry about those two losers. OSU-GT was slower than expected. And who woulda thunk Mich st. would shoot under 40% against that D? That doesn't bode well for Sparty going forward. Just the one total today. Good luck. 6-3-1 |
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| Author: | NSJ [ Sun Mar 21, 2010 11:57 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Leaving Vegas today , Coast. Any thoughts for the day? |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Sun Mar 21, 2010 4:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Sorry was unable to post last few days and my plays today were all steamed before I was able to get to a puter to share them. I don't feel comfortable giving out plays that have steamed 4-5 points beyond where I played them. They were over on Mich st-Mary, Wis-cornell and duke-Cal. I do have one for Monday already. Illinois-Kent State over 133.5 |
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| Author: | Chus [ Sun Mar 21, 2010 4:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
I like Kent +8 in that game. |
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| Author: | Free Ajent [ Thu Mar 25, 2010 6:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
No thoughts on any of the matchups for tomorrow Coast? It's like you just teased me and now i'm left with blue balls. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Fri Mar 26, 2010 8:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Check therxforum.com. They have some good cappers who will give you some thoughts. Chus has been pretty good lately as well. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Fri Mar 26, 2010 10:34 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Free Ajent wrote: No thoughts on any of the matchups for tomorrow Coast? It's like you just teased me and now i'm left with blue balls. Baylor. |
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| Author: | Free Ajent [ Fri Mar 26, 2010 10:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Chus wrote: Free Ajent wrote: No thoughts on any of the matchups for tomorrow Coast? It's like you just teased me and now i'm left with blue balls. Baylor.
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Fri Mar 26, 2010 2:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
I have been accused of many things in my life, but I am pretty sure this is the first time another man has suggested I was a contributing cause to his blue balls. I think back in the day I might have thrown out plays every day of the tourney. And I recall I did ok with those. But maybe I'm a bit more selective these days. Sorry, nothing met my criteria for a big bet the last few nights. Sure, I made some small bets every day, but if it isn't worthy of a big bet for me it's not worthy of me to recommend for anybody else. Last night, for example, I had bets on Kentucky and Kansas State and a parlay of those two with the Kentucky under. Tonight I have a bet on Tenn-Ohio State over 133.5, and a little parlay of that over with Ohio State to win outright (moneyline) that is a bet 2 to win 3.63 payoff. I also will have a bet on Purdue, but I'm waiting to see if I might get +9 on the Boilers. Purdue is my wild ass upset pick tonight. Duke will lose sometime soon. Why can't it be tonight? I think the public is way over-valuing the loss of Hummel as reflected in the betting line. Sure they aren't the same team, but 9 to Duke? Overlay IMO. But that's just an opinion and not analytically sound in every respect. So I'm not betting serious money on it. I may have something big on Saturday or Sunday. Stay tuned. Haven't worked through those games yet. I do have one big one for next Tuesday's NIT semifinals: Carolina-Rhode Island over 149 Had this game been played a month ago, it would likely have been lined at 155. However, these teams have played several "grinders" against slowish teams over the last month and March games tend to be slower. I think that gives us value here. These teams do like to play fast and both should oblige. I won't be surprised if this is 153 or so on game day. I also have regular bets on Dayton +1 and Carolina +1 in those games. Hope those balls regain their color. |
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| Author: | Brick [ Fri Mar 26, 2010 3:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Thanks Coast. Heading down the sportsbook in a few minutes. 
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| Author: | Chus [ Fri Mar 26, 2010 6:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about the Madness |
Coast2Coast wrote: Tonight I have a bet on Tenn-Ohio State over 133.5 81 at the break. |
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