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| Early Lines for NCAA final 4 https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=44509 |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Sun Mar 28, 2010 8:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Early Lines for NCAA final 4 |
Duke - 2 v WVA Butler -1.5 v Mich St |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Mon Mar 29, 2010 1:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Early Lines for NCAA final 4 |
As I noted yesterday, the linesmaker appears to have taken Mich. State down about 4 points for the loss of Lucas. I took them down 1.5 to 88, but the linesmaker makes them about 85.5..for the third straight game again. MSU has now covered three straight against the number and two straight without Lucas and with the lower linesmaker power rating. At what point does the linesmaker think maybe they've downgraded MSU too much? I make Butler 86. They started the tourney at 85 and I've brought them up 1 already. It's really hard for me to see them at 87 or higher, but even if they are an 87, then I still make this MSU -1. I don't just measure the last week and the teams Butler has beaten, but their entire body of work. I think the linesmaker has again under-valued MSU due to the injury, and they might also be over-valuing Butler expecting public money perhaps. Thus, I make this line MSU 88-Butler 86 = MSU -2. The linesmaker makes it Butler 87 - MSU 85.5 = Butler -1.5. I'll take the value as I find it. I make the other game Duke -2. (Duke 94, WVU 92). That one looks right on the money. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Tue Mar 30, 2010 10:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Early Lines for NCAA final 4 |
Any home court factor for Butler, Coast? |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Sat Apr 03, 2010 11:40 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Early Lines for NCAA final 4 |
This is the first time I could see a home court factor as negative! If you saw these guys practice the other day, it was packed. SRO! They came on the floor before practice for a standing O. I saw 2 players, lift their practive jerseys over their heads, they were so embarassed, freaked, smiling, whatever it was, you could tell it was the largest crowd they have ever been in front of. Most of the MSU guys have been here and now they come in as an underdog, putting less and less pressure. I might buy a point! or a 1/2! |
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