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| Derby 2010 Thread https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=45524 |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Mon Apr 26, 2010 10:26 am ] |
| Post subject: | Derby 2010 Thread |
Prohibitive favorite is out. Wide open race! |
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| Author: | Andy Dufresne [ Mon Apr 26, 2010 3:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
Looking at Lucky's last race showed this horse can go the 1.25 miles. He pulled up twice due to heavy traffic. He may be the new favorite, I didn't check. |
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| Author: | Eaglo Jeff [ Mon Apr 26, 2010 3:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
Time for my annual horse racing bet. I'll have to ask my guy Mike Antonitus (sp?) what he thinks. Got no clue when it comes to horse race handicapping. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Mon Apr 26, 2010 4:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
Andy Dufresne wrote: Looking at Lucky's last race showed this horse can go the 1.25 miles. He pulled up twice due to heavy traffic. He may be the new favorite, I didn't check. He'll be the post time favorite, most likely. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Mon Apr 26, 2010 5:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
Lot of speed in this baby, so I'm looking at a closer.So it's Ice Box a little Puplit a little Spend a Buck. Should clos like a frieght train wooo wooooo wooo! Of course Pletcher was a herd runnin and Calvin is tuff at the Twin Spires won 5 opening day.Luckin at Lucky did have trouble but I hate Baffert 
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| Author: | Rod [ Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
Antoniades better stick to them buggies! This is big boy racing we're talking about. |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Tue Apr 27, 2010 9:32 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
I absolutely hate the fact that most horses now are bred for speed. No classic distance horses left. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Tue Apr 27, 2010 10:26 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
I don't think that the problem is that they are bred for speed necessarily, but that they are breed for precociousness. The goal, more and more, is to have them at peak performance for only the end of their two year old and beginning of their three year old years. There's some overlap there between precociousness and brilliance (in the speed sense), but I think if breeders could develop a consistent strain of precocious runners that could handle 10 furlongs, they would do it. The reason for the move towards precociousness is the Kentucky Derby, after all. It will be interesting to see if, with breeding prices still falling and purses remaining relatively stable, that trend reverses itself somewhat. It would also help if the Kentucky Derby did away with the graded earnings parameter for entry, as this tends towards larger purses for young horses, making 4 year old campaigns less valuable. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Tue Apr 27, 2010 10:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
There's a little more to it than that. When an owner is shelling out hundreds of thousands of dollars for a yearling and then investing all kinds of money into training it, he wants to recoup that cash as quickly as possible. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Tue Apr 27, 2010 10:58 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: There's a little more to it than that. When an owner is shelling out hundreds of thousands of dollars for a yearling and then investing all kinds of money into training it, he wants to recoup that cash as quickly as possible. Right, but that's contingent upon 1.) yearling or weanling prices being high, and 2.) there being more opportunities to recoup that money on the Derby trail and in the breeding shed than in their late 3yo and older campaigns. If the way to horse racing riches to run through the 3yo and into the 4yo years, then that will change. You're right as it stands now, I'm just saying that if purses got progressively higher for older horses, thay dynamic would change. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Tue Apr 27, 2010 4:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
Andy Dufresne wrote: Looking at Lucky's last race showed this horse can go the 1.25 miles. He pulled up twice due to heavy traffic. He may be the new favorite, I didn't check. How does running a race a mile an 1-1/8 show he can go a mile and a quarter,plus heavy traffic there will be 19 other horse that can give him trouble and he is not running on poly. Take that |
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| Author: | muhfug [ Wed Apr 28, 2010 8:11 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
I'm going down to the Derby this year, haven't gone in ten years. Right now, there is a 60% chance of T-storms on Sat. That could change things, it's always a tough race to predict. It always come down to who gets the perfect trip. We'll see today who gets the good post positions. I'll probably tie a couple closers, a favorite, and a mudder into an exacta, depending on the weather. No matter what, the Derby experience is always fun. Right now leaning toward Lookin at Lucky, Paddie O'Prado, and Dublin. It's such a crapshoot. |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Wed Apr 28, 2010 11:17 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
I hate the many surfaces horses run on today. You got the cushion out west, poly in the midwest, direct everywhere else. Hard to determine how form translates from one surface to another. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Wed Apr 28, 2010 11:17 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
Jesus Christ, the favorite drew the 1 post, and the second choice drew the 20 post. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Wed Apr 28, 2010 11:19 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
Polytrack is an abomination. If God had meant horses to run on rubber, that big race on the first Saturday in May would be the Akron Derby. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Wed Apr 28, 2010 11:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
If God had meant for horses to run with harnesses, he would have strapped wheels to their asses. |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Wed Apr 28, 2010 11:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
Irish Boy wrote: Jesus Christ, the favorite drew the 1 post, and the second choice drew the 20 post. That's going to hurt Lookin at Lucky since they will want to rate that horse. Better get Calvin Bo-rail to ride him. 
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| Author: | Rod [ Wed Apr 28, 2010 11:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
And list'nin to some big out-a-town Jasper Hearin' him tell about horse-race gamblin'. Not a wholesome trottin' race, no! But a race where they set down right on the horse! Like to see some stuck-up jockey'boy Sittin' on Dan Patch? Make your blood boil? Well, I should say. |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Wed Apr 28, 2010 11:37 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
Post positions 1. Lookin at Lucky (7/2 odds) 2. Ice Box (11/1) 3. Noble’s Promise (12/1) 4. Super Saver (12/1) 5. Line of David (28/1) 6. Stately Victor (30/1) 7. American Lion (14/1) 8. Dean’s Kitten (35/1) 9. Make Music For Me (50/1) 10. Paddy O’Prado (15/1) 11. Devil May Care (20/1) 12. Conveyance (18/1) 13. Jackson Bend (20/1) 14. Mission Impazible (18/1) 15. Discreetly Mine (30/1) 16. Awesome Act (12/1) 17. Dublin (12/1) 18. Backtalk (60/1) 19. Homeboykris (35/1) 20. Sidney’s Candy (6/1) |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Wed Apr 28, 2010 5:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
Oh the gr8 Joe Orr who's dosage makes them the pick, and who is this years wise guy pick? |
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| Author: | newper [ Wed Apr 28, 2010 6:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
I would not bet on a horse from the 1 hole in the KY derby under any circumstance. |
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| Author: | Eaglo Jeff [ Wed Apr 28, 2010 9:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
Irish Boy wrote: If God had meant for horses to run with harnesses, he would have strapped wheels to their asses.  Too true, too true. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Wed Apr 28, 2010 10:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: Oh the gr8 Joe Orr who's dosage makes them the pick, and who is this years wise guy pick? On Dosage alone, Lookin at Lucky is the obvious play. He's a dual qualifier. But Super Saver is also a dual qualifier and he might be considered a "wise guy horse". |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Thu Apr 29, 2010 11:12 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
newper wrote: I would not bet on a horse from the 1 hole in the KY derby under any circumstance. The only way this works is either a deep deep closer or a speedball. Even then, it's tough to see it. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Thu Apr 29, 2010 2:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
I tend to think that dosage is a pseudo-science and that any correlation it may have with Derby success is purely coincidental. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Thu Apr 29, 2010 7:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
Irish Boy wrote: I tend to think that dosage is a pseudo-science and that any correlation it may have with Derby success is purely coincidental. Could be. It reminds me of PECOTA, where we change the formula when we don't like the results. I remember Go For Gin didn't meet Dosage requirements going in but they changed the Chef De Race numbers in his line so he fit after the fact. Kind of an Ex Post Dosage law. |
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| Author: | Woodridge Ryan [ Sat May 01, 2010 5:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby 2010 Thread |
Thank You Super Saver! I told ya Eddie! 
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