Last Week 5-1-1
Overall 9-7-2

Steelers -2.5 at Buccaneers W
49ers -2.5 at Chiefs L
Lions +10.5 at Vikings L
Houston -3 against Cowboys L
Seahawks +6 against Chargers W
Packers -3 at Bears L

2-4
11-11-2

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Washington -3.5


That Cincy line is a head scratcher.

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-- source

Not if you look at their history as road chalk.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

This week's NFL power ratings and the current lines/my lines:
http://www.mediafire.com/?kck6lkki4m8bt

Based on power ratings, I would be on Jax, New Orleans, Minny and Green Bay this week.
I lost last week on Minny and going against the Bears, so it's possible I still have those teams mis-rated. So I'll contemplate those bets a bit more. Line on New Orleans is dropping as bettors show love for Atlanta, so I'll wait to bet Nawlins too. So for right now, it's just Jax.

1-5-1 in Week 2
YTD: 5-5-1, -0.5

Jacksonville +3, 1*
Pure ratings play as I make Jax the favorite. Linesmakers probably figuring public won't like Jax after their debacle at San Diego last week...and suspect they are figuring on a little public love for the Vick. But how can you make Philly road chalk here? Their offensive line is horrible and their defense isn't stopping the run.

4-1 +3.17

Philadelphia/Jacksonville over 44.5 (-105)
Washington -3 (-125)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Jets +7.5/kC +8.5 6 pt Teaser 1 u -110
Basic strategy teaser with two teams in low total games.

Atlanta-New Orleans under 49, 1u
Missed the best price, but think this is still a really good number. I'd make this several points lower. Perception on Saints being high scoring is based on last year's offense, not this year's. Atlanta will run the ball a lot, helping to move clock. This has already moved down and I expect it will move more tomorrow.

I was considering going the other way if it went down to 48. The last five between these two have gone over 48.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

4-1 +3.17

Philadelphia/Jacksonville over 44.5 (-105)
Washington -3 (-125)
Pittsburgh -2.5 (-110)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

4-1 +3.17

Philadelphia/Jacksonville over 44.5 (-105)
Washington -3 (-125)
Pittsburgh -2.5 (-110)
Baltimore -10.5 (-105)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

4-1 +3.17

Philadelphia/Jacksonville over 44.5 (-105)
Washington -3 (-125)
Pittsburgh -2.5 (-110)
Baltimore -10.5 (-105)
New Orleans -3 (-110)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Pittsburgh (-3)
Cincinnati (-4)
Detroit (+11)
Chicago (+3)
Houston (-3)
Indianapolis (-6)

New Orleans -3, -116
power rating play.

I already hit them. This line means that these teams are even? I don't think so.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

4-1 +3.17

Philadelphia/Jacksonville over 44.5 (-105)
Washington -3 (-125)
Pittsburgh -2.5 (-110)
Baltimore -10.5 (-105)
New Orleans -3 (-110)
Washington/St. Louis over 39 (-107)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

week 3: 2-4 -2.45
2010: 6-5 +0.72

I really need to lay off the NFL. I win on Saturday, and then give it back on Sunday.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Chus- When you see things like what happened in the 49ers-Chiefs game yesterday, it can make a little more fun if you had the over in the game, it was about 36.5 or 37.

I don't if anybody saw the end of this game, but the Chiefs have the ball up 31-3 deep in 49er territory, instead of kicking a field goal on 4th down, go for don't get it, then with about 13 seconds to go, 49ers have the ball about their own 45 on 4th down throw a screen pass to Gore, he looks for a second like he may score gets stopped about the 13, 49ers call a timeout to get one more play. Alex Smith runs around a little and throws the touchdown on the last play, time to celeberate, but Smith looks disgusted on the sideline, because the receiver that caught the touchdown, I think Josh Morgan, hurts his knee, so he may be out awhile.

It looks like the under is coming in, then you think the game's over and Singletary calls a timeout to get another play and touchdown, glad I had the over, just a little crazy when you see how it happens.

Packers -3 vs. Bears, +106
I'll believe my numbers one more week. When these teams last played late last season at Soldier, the Packers were easily 2 TDs better. Martz has made Cutler better, but wins over Detroit and Dallas haven't made me believe that they've closed the gap this much. If this line were where it should be, IMO, at 6-7, I'd be passing this. But Bears' optimism springs eternal and some bettors are apparently buying it.

Now I will say this...some sharps are on the home dog Bears. But then most sharps would never -- or almost never -- lay points on the road. I don't either, but damn this makes twice this week. And the world's worst sports gambler, a loser every single football season in the last 20 years, is on the Packers. But he wins once in a while. So I'm trusting my numbers to a fault here...going against some sharps who love the home dog and backing the square play. I know it's not like me, but sometimes you gotta do....