Chicago Fanatics Message Board :: View topic

Last week: 3-1
YTD: 7-10, -4.9

Arkansas State +6 vs. Louisville, 2**
Sharp money alert. This will come down as word gets out on sharp money on this one. I predict 3 or 3.5 by Saturday, which would be a decent middle.

Fundamentals are pretty clear: Louisville is a bad..no make that really bad...team that is laying points on the road to a Sun Belt team that runs the ball pretty well. I'm taking a position on this one simply because I have good information that a certain sharp player with a big following os making this a big play and his gang will move this one down. Probably see it moving tonight or tomorrow. And when it does keep moving all week, by Saturday, I'll probably buy back the other side and set up a middle. If it doesn't go down, then I'll either hold the bet, which I think is a good bet, or juice out some of it.

IMO, the line will not go above 7.

Dr. Bob? Fezzik? dontfademe.com ?

2010: 12-9-2 +2.85

Oklahoma State -3 (+102) PUSH
Vanderbilt +7.5 (-105) L
East Carolina +13 (-105) L
Temple -5 (-108) W
Kentucky +3 (-120) L
Toledo -3 (-110) L
Bowling Green -3 (-125) L
BYU -4.5 (+113) L

Author:	Coast2Coast [ Mon Sep 27, 2010 9:10 pm ]
Post subject:	Week 5 NCAA
Last week: 3-1 YTD: 7-10, -4.9 Arkansas State +6 vs. Louisville, 2** Sharp money alert. This will come down as word gets out on sharp money on this one. I predict 3 or 3.5 by Saturday, which would be a decent middle. Fundamentals are pretty clear: Louisville is a bad..no make that really bad...team that is laying points on the road to a Sun Belt team that runs the ball pretty well. I'm taking a position on this one simply because I have good information that a certain sharp player with a big following os making this a big play and his gang will move this one down. Probably see it moving tonight or tomorrow. And when it does keep moving all week, by Saturday, I'll probably buy back the other side and set up a middle. If it doesn't go down, then I'll either hold the bet, which I think is a good bet, or juice out some of it.

Author:	Chus [ Mon Sep 27, 2010 9:31 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Week 5 NCAA
Coast2Coast wrote: Last week: 3-1 YTD: 7-10, -4.9 Arkansas State +6 vs. Louisville, 2** Sharp money alert. This will come down as word gets out on sharp money on this one. I predict 3 or 3.5 by Saturday, which would be a decent middle. Fundamentals are pretty clear: Louisville is a bad..no make that really bad...team that is laying points on the road to a Sun Belt team that runs the ball pretty well. I'm taking a position on this one simply because I have good information that a certain sharp player with a big following os making this a big play and his gang will move this one down. Probably see it moving tonight or tomorrow. And when it does keep moving all week, by Saturday, I'll probably buy back the other side and set up a middle. If it doesn't go down, then I'll either hold the bet, which I think is a good bet, or juice out some of it. Dr. Bob? Fezzik? dontfademe.com ?

Author:	good dolphin [ Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:16 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Week 5 NCAA
Last Week 2-5-1 Overall 18-25-3 Oklahoma State -3 against TAM PUSH Vanderbilt +7.5 at UConn L Indiana +10 against Michigan W NC State +4 against Virginia Tech L Temple -5.5 at Army W ND -2.5 at BC W Alabama -8 against Florida W Washington +10 at USC W Stanford +7 at Oregon L 5-3-1 Nice week 23-28-4 overall

Author:	Chus [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 9:38 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Week 5 NCAA
2010: 12-9-2 +2.85 Oklahoma State -3 (+102) Vanderbilt +7.5 (-105) East Carolina +13 (-105) Temple -5 (-108) Kentucky +3 (-120) Toledo -3 (-110)

Author:	Hawkeye Vince [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:31 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Week 5 NCAA
Coast - do you see the Iowa line going above 7 across the board?

Chicago Fanatics Message Board https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/

Week 5 NCAA https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=50988	Page 1 of 1

Author:	Chus [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:48 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Week 5 NCAA
IMO, the line will not go above 7.

Author:	Chus [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 11:10 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Week 5 NCAA
2010: 12-9-2 +2.85 Oklahoma State -3 (+102) Vanderbilt +7.5 (-105) East Carolina +13 (-105) Temple -5 (-108) Kentucky +3 (-120) Toledo -3 (-110) Bowling Green -3 (-125)

Author:	Chus [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 2:21 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Week 5 NCAA
Chus wrote: IMO, the line will not go above 7. DSI, a sister book of bookmaker, just put up 7.5

Author:	Coast2Coast [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 9:01 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Week 5 NCAA
Vince, no I don't. The line opened at 4.5 and the sharps bought Iowa all the way to 7 pretty quickly. When a line has a 3.5 point move like this to a key number (3 or 7), the books know that if they move it across the key number, in this case, to 7.5, there will be significant buyback from the same sharps setting up middles around 7. So no, I don't. The books would not like the exposure to middles. And if it does go to 7.5 in some shops, I don't see it staying there long because people will buy PSU there. The only way it goes to 7.5 is if some news comes out on PSU injury or something that causes bettors to like Iowa even more.

Author:	Coast2Coast [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 9:05 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Week 5 NCAA
Chus wrote: Dr. Bob? Fezzik? dontfademe.com ? The Arkansas State play is Fezzik's first 3** of the year. He gave it out Monday night. It's moved 1.5 points down to 4.5 so far.

Author:	Coast2Coast [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:11 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Week 5 NCAA
I think there are a few soft numbers and with numbers getting tight, it's all about situations and value. Wisconsin-Michigan State Over 53.5 This game has gone over 7 straight years. That isn't necessarily relevant, but it does indicate a history of these teams having their way with the other. They each obviously see ways to score on the other. This year looks no different: Both offenses decidedly better than their defenses.

Author:	Chus [ Fri Oct 01, 2010 12:49 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Week 5 NCAA
Coast2Coast wrote: Last week: 3-1 YTD: 7-10, -4.9 Arkansas State +6 vs. Louisville, 2** Sharp money alert. This will come down as word gets out on sharp money on this one. I predict 3 or 3.5 by Saturday, which would be a decent middle. Fundamentals are pretty clear: Louisville is a bad..no make that really bad...team that is laying points on the road to a Sun Belt team that runs the ball pretty well. I'm taking a position on this one simply because I have good information that a certain sharp player with a big following os making this a big play and his gang will move this one down. Probably see it moving tonight or tomorrow. And when it does keep moving all week, by Saturday, I'll probably buy back the other side and set up a middle. If it doesn't go down, then I'll either hold the bet, which I think is a good bet, or juice out some of it. You have to love Matchbook.

Author:	Chus [ Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:27 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Week 5 NCAA
2010: 12-9-2 +2.85 Oklahoma State -3 (+102) Vanderbilt +7.5 (-105) East Carolina +13 (-105) Temple -5 (-108) Kentucky +3 (-120) Toledo -3 (-110) Bowling Green -3 (-125) BYU -4.5 (+113)

Author:	Chus [ Sun Oct 03, 2010 7:50 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Week 5 NCAA
Chus wrote: 2010: 12-9-2 +2.85 Oklahoma State -3 (+102) PUSH Vanderbilt +7.5 (-105) L East Carolina +13 (-105) L Temple -5 (-108) W Kentucky +3 (-120) L Toledo -3 (-110) L Bowling Green -3 (-125) L BYU -4.5 (+113) L wk 5: 1-6-1 -5.65 2010: 13-15-3 -2.8

Page 1 of 1	All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group https://www.phpbb.com/