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| Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=51030 |
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| Author: | Chris_in_joliet [ Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
On bookmaker.com right now. This line seems like it should be the other way. They were a heavy dog vs Dallas and won and were a +3 dog at home vs Green Bay. Thoughts? |
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| Author: | ChgoSportsFreak [ Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
I think this could be a let down game - |
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| Author: | Aggravated Sox Fan Bob [ Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
I can hear the voice of Mike Nort right now saying Dis is a Trap game. |
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| Author: | Drop In [ Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
ChgoSportsFreak wrote: I think this could be a let down game - The Giants were horrible against Tennessee. But I think they'll play next week, like the Cowboys did against Houston. Their "bad" was fixable. |
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| Author: | Eaglo Jeff [ Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
Me being lazy and not taking time to find an Admiral Ackbar picture wrote: IT'S A TARP!!!!
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Tue Sep 28, 2010 5:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
I wouldn't be the least bit suprised if the Bears won and covered that number, but I wouldn't lay it. The Giants weakness is in the secondary on defense, which plays to the Bears strength. When the Bears are on defense, they are essentially going with the same game plan as Dallas and Green Bay, shut down the run, let them pass short. Manning is more than capable of throwing for 300 yards and 0 TDs. |
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| Author: | man of few opinions [ Tue Sep 28, 2010 6:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
good dolphin wrote: The Giants weakness is in the secondary on defense, which plays to the Bears strength. i disagree. they have been torched on the ground the last 2 weeks. the lack of run-stopping ability is what is killing them. they are being forced to load up the box to stop the run, leaving single-coverage outside, which is being exploited. the giants have some pretty talented DBs, but they need to stop the run or they will have trouble week in and week out. the BIGGEST problem they have though is "sure handed" receivers like hakeem nicks constantly having well thrown balls bounce off of their hands into the hands of defenders. of mannings 6 picks already this season, FIVE of them have been perfectly catchable balls bouncing off of receivers hands. the 6th one was that terrible left-handed flip he tried sunday. the giants are a talented team offensively, but they are killing themselves with horrible turnovers and penalties. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 9:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
So the question is, do you think the power rating for the Bears should be higher than Green Bay, since they beat them? Do you think it should be higher than Dallas, since they beat them? The number is right on for the books' power ratings, including a bump of the Bears up 1 and the Giants down 1 after last week. IF this game were played last week, it would have been +6 at New York and pick if it were at Chicago. WIth the line +4, the book is saying they think the Giants are 1 pt. better on a neutral field. WHen the season started, the books would have made the Giants about -9..more than when the Bears played at the Cowboys because the Giants were rated higher than the Cowboys at the beginning of the season. As you think about power ratings for teams, which is what lines are made from, you have to look at more than scores. Look at yardage as a much more relevant indicator. Green Bay turnovers were the major factor in the Bears win, but the yardage says the Packers won that game. Yardage is more relevant to power ratings because yardage is a better predictor of future games than scores, because yardage isn't influenced nearly as much by turnovers as are scores. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 9:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
Quote: Green Bay turnovers All one of them? I know Rodgers had an INT at the end of the first half too, but I wouldn't call a failed hail mary conversion particularly predicative. I agree with everything else you said, but that doesn't strike me as particularly compelling. |
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| Author: | Chris_in_joliet [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 9:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
I kind of feel that New York is going to be looking to make a statement and come out and pass the shit out of the ball and will already feel like they will be down a TD going into the game. The Bears have to have alot of confidence going into the game seeing as they were dogs at home vs Packers and bigger dogs on the road at Cowboys. I think I might make a small play on this later on in the week if the number stays the same. I dont expect it too though. Im thinking it drops to a +3. The Giants dont impress me this year at all. They beat a shitty Panthers team and than 2 straight weeks got their asses kicked by the Colts and the Titans. Neither of those teams would I say are that much ahead of the Bears if at all. Unless the Giants just all of a sudden turn it around I see the Bears winning outright. |
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| Author: | Colonel Angus [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 9:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
The Bears won their last 3 games because the other teams fucked up and let the Bears beat them. If any team has perfected fucking up this season, it's the New York Football Giants. |
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| Author: | Free Ajent [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 9:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
Chris_in_joliet wrote: I kind of feel that New York is going to be looking to make a statement and come out and pass the shit out of the ball and will already feel like they will be down a TD going into the game. The Bears have to have alot of confidence going into the game seeing as they were dogs at home vs Packers and bigger dogs on the road at Cowboys. I think I might make a small play on this later on in the week if the number stays the same. I dont expect it too though. Im thinking it drops to a +3. The Giants dont impress me this year at all. They beat a shitty Panthers team and than 2 straight weeks got their asses kicked by the Colts and the Titans. Neither of those teams would I say are that much ahead of the Bears if at all. Unless the Giants just all of a sudden turn it around I see the Bears winning outright. Wait, are you saying that you don't think the Colts are that much better than the Bears? If you think that's true you are fucking crazy. |
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| Author: | Chris_in_joliet [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 9:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
Coast2Coast wrote: As you think about power ratings for teams, which is what lines are made from, you have to look at more than scores. Look at yardage as a much more relevant indicator. Green Bay turnovers were the major factor in the Bears win, but the yardage says the Packers won that game. Yardage is more relevant to power ratings because yardage is a better predictor of future games than scores, because yardage isn't influenced nearly as much by turnovers as are scores. You heard a millon times on the game, as did I, that the Bears play a bend but dont break defense though. 3 seperate drives which lasted over 25 mins resulted in 3 points. I have seen plenty of teams rack up the yards and it doesnt matter. What is the stat you hear every monday about the QBs who passed for 300 yards or more. How many times do they wind up winning the game? Its all about Turnovers. If you count the fluke GB interception at the end of the half(which was just that........a fluke) that would be 1 for GB and one for Chicago. But it goes much deeper than that. You almost have to look at the Devin Hester run back as a turnover as that resulted in a score. They got great position and didnt do anything with it. I would think turnovers and a plus minus ratio would be just as good as a factor as judging yardage. What happens when a team keeps getting Turnovers when a team is backed up. I cant see how yardage is that much more of a factor than a team that is able to capitalize on anothers mistakes, as the Bears have been known to do. |
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| Author: | Chris_in_joliet [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 9:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
Free Ajent wrote: Chris_in_joliet wrote: I kind of feel that New York is going to be looking to make a statement and come out and pass the shit out of the ball and will already feel like they will be down a TD going into the game. The Bears have to have alot of confidence going into the game seeing as they were dogs at home vs Packers and bigger dogs on the road at Cowboys. I think I might make a small play on this later on in the week if the number stays the same. I dont expect it too though. Im thinking it drops to a +3. The Giants dont impress me this year at all. They beat a shitty Panthers team and than 2 straight weeks got their asses kicked by the Colts and the Titans. Neither of those teams would I say are that much ahead of the Bears if at all. Unless the Giants just all of a sudden turn it around I see the Bears winning outright. Wait, are you saying that you don't think the Colts are that much better than the Bears? If you think that's true you are fucking crazy. Why would they be that much better than them? On a neutral field can they dominate the Bears? The Colts beat a team that I think the Bears will handle in the Giants after they got trounced in the opening game vs the Texans. I think Foster is still running on them. They beat a Denver team that I dont think anyone is really impressed with. I dont see how the Colts would be miles and miles ahead of Chicago. |
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| Author: | Spaulding [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 9:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
Chris_in_joliet wrote: You heard a millon times on the game, as did I, that the Bears play a bend but dont break defense though. 3 seperate drives which lasted over 25 mins resulted in 3 points. I have seen plenty of teams rack up the yards and it doesnt matter. What is the stat you hear every monday about the QBs who passed for 300 yards or more. How many times do they wind up winning the game? Its all about Turnovers. Not a fan of the bend don't break. At some point they will get worn down, more prone to injuries, and I disagree with the basic thought that they depend on their defense to be their offense. Your right that it doesn't matter til they lose because of it. They always seem more lucky than good and luck runs out. I'm more concerned about the 1st and goals and not getting in the endone or even taking points. That's got to stop. |
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| Author: | Free Ajent [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 9:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
Chris_in_joliet wrote: Why would they be that much better than them? On a neutral field can they dominate the Bears? The Colts beat a team that I think the Bears will handle in the Giants after they got trounced in the opening game vs the Texans. I think Foster is still running on them. They beat a Denver team that I dont think anyone is really impressed with. I dont see how the Colts would be miles and miles ahead of Chicago. Really? Wow ok....guess that guy Peyton Manning retired. |
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| Author: | Chris_in_joliet [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
Free Ajent wrote: Chris_in_joliet wrote: Why would they be that much better than them? On a neutral field can they dominate the Bears? The Colts beat a team that I think the Bears will handle in the Giants after they got trounced in the opening game vs the Texans. I think Foster is still running on them. They beat a Denver team that I dont think anyone is really impressed with. I dont see how the Colts would be miles and miles ahead of Chicago. Really? Wow ok....guess that guy Peyton Manning retired. Well Peyton Manning has lost before right? And do you just measure a team by a QB and thats it. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
The Colts would be, and would deserve to be, a significant favorite over the Bears. |
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| Author: | Chris_in_joliet [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
Green Bay was a +3 vs the Bears and that didnt turn out well. Im pretty sure alot of people had Green Bay ranked right up there with the Colts. |
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| Author: | Free Ajent [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
Chris_in_joliet wrote: Well Peyton Manning has lost before right? And do you just measure a team by a QB and thats it. I don't think the Bears can beat the Colts and the Packers beat themselves but you won't hear me complaining. The Colts would and should be a favorite over the Bears just like the Packers were but I don't see the Colts beating themselves with penalties like GB did. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
Chris_in_joliet wrote: Green Bay was a +3 vs the Bears and that didnt turn out well. Im pretty sure alot of people had Green Bay ranked right up there with the Colts. That's fantastic. Will you please use me for any of your future NFL gambling needs? |
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| Author: | Free Ajent [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
Irish Boy wrote: Chris_in_joliet wrote: Green Bay was a +3 vs the Bears and that didnt turn out well. Im pretty sure alot of people had Green Bay ranked right up there with the Colts. That's fantastic. Will you please use me for any of your future NFL gambling needs? Get in line! |
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| Author: | Chris_in_joliet [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
Irish Boy wrote: Chris_in_joliet wrote: Green Bay was a +3 vs the Bears and that didnt turn out well. Im pretty sure alot of people had Green Bay ranked right up there with the Colts. That's fantastic. Will you please use me for any of your future NFL gambling needs? Where was Green Bay ranked in the preseason power rankings? |
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| Author: | Chris_in_joliet [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
SI.com had the Packers at number one Colts were 5 Cbs had Packers at number 3 Colts were 11 Usatoday had Colts 1 and Packers 8 Should I find more to go along with my arguement that alot of people thought they were very close to one another when the season started? |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
Once again, that's real swell that you use SI and CBS for power ratings. |
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| Author: | Chris_in_joliet [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
What Im saying is that the preseason rankings dont mean shit. Look at all the teams the "experts" picked to come out of the NFC West. 49ers all falling quickly. Saints don't look untouchable. Colts got manhandled by an aveage Texans team. Different league boys than last year. Irish boy, quit talking shit and show me your rankings that you had for the teams before hand that show such a vast difference than those sites. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
Chris_in_joliet wrote: What Im saying is that the preseason rankings dont mean shit. Look at all the teams the "experts" picked to come out of the NFC West. 49ers all falling quickly. Saints don't look untouchable. Colts got manhandled by an aveage Texans team. Different league boys than last year. Irish boy, quit talking shit and show me your rankings that you had for the teams before hand that show such a vast difference than those sites. You continue missing the point. First, we're about three weeks into the season, which means that we have vastly more info than we had before the season. Even still, this transitive Team A > Team B > Team C, so Team A > Team C doesn't always work that way. Third, you're just making conclusory statements without really any evidence to back it up. I'm telling you, as a statement of fact, that the Colts would be a significant favorite over the Bears right now. The Packers still would be too, notwithstanding Monday Night. The SI and CBS and whatever website power rankings aren't worth the bandwidth they take up, and you'd be better off avoiding them. |
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| Author: | Chris_in_joliet [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
Irish Boy wrote: Chris_in_joliet wrote: What Im saying is that the preseason rankings dont mean shit. Look at all the teams the "experts" picked to come out of the NFC West. 49ers all falling quickly. Saints don't look untouchable. Colts got manhandled by an aveage Texans team. Different league boys than last year. Irish boy, quit talking shit and show me your rankings that you had for the teams before hand that show such a vast difference than those sites. You continue missing the point. First, we're about three weeks into the season, which means that we have vastly more info than we had before the season. Even still, this transitive Team A > Team B > Team C, so Team A > Team C doesn't always work that way. Third, you're just making conclusory statements without really any evidence to back it up. I'm telling you, as a statement of fact, that the Colts would be a significant favorite over the Bears right now. The Packers still would be too, notwithstanding Monday Night. The SI and CBS and whatever website power rankings aren't worth the bandwidth they take up, and you'd be better off avoiding them. The Packers werent a heavy favorite vs the Bears so why would the Colts be that much bigger of a favorite when they havent shown anything at all really. The reason I was using the rankings was for that arguement because other than the 2 weeks of football thats all you can judge it on. If you want to judge what the Packers have done compared to the Colts than that is fine, and that would put the Colts as less of a favorite than the Packers IMO. I was trying to say, seeing what the Packers have done vs what the Colts have done doesnt show me the Colts are a better team than Green Bay. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
The Packers were a three point road favorite, and I believe the line was shaded. That would make them a 6 or 6.5 point favorite on a neutral site and a 9 or 9.5 point favorite at home. That's a pretty heavy favorite in the NFL. What do you think the line would be if the Bears played the Colts tomorrow? |
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| Author: | Chris_in_joliet [ Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bears are a +4 vs the Giants? |
Irish Boy wrote: The Packers were a three point road favorite, and I believe the line was shaded. That would make them a 6 or 6.5 point favorite on a neutral site and a 9 or 9.5 point favorite at home. That's a pretty heavy favorite in the NFL. What do you think the line would be if the Bears played the Colts tomorrow? At home vs the Colts and the heavy love for Peyton Manning I think it would +4 At Indy I think it would be about a +7 or 8. |
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