I could see AccuScore being wrong on the Bulls game.
| Chicago Fanatics Message Board https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/ |
|
| AccuScore Predictions https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=53560 |
Page 1 of 1 |
| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Wed Dec 08, 2010 8:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | AccuScore Predictions |
I've been looking at these the past few weeks and they seem ridiculously accurate. So, I've decided to chart them (with no Jelly Beans involved). These are projected final scores based on the average of 10,000 game simulations and rounded. Yesterday's predictions were - Syracuse 78 MSU 74 Kansas 80 Memphis 68 Charlotte 99 Denver 96 Actual Results - Syracuse 78 MSU 58 Kansas 81 Memphis 68 Charlotte 100 Denver 98 Tonight's predictions - Boston 103 Denver 95 Miami 95 Utah 93 Kentucky 75 Notre Dame 74 Spread - Miami +1 ND +5 1/2 No line yet on Boston So far, Day 1 Results - Record - 3-0 Record ATS - 3-0 |
|
| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Fri Dec 10, 2010 9:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
Actual Results in (parentheses) - Wednesday predictions - Boston 103 (105) W & W-ATS Denver 95 (89) (BOS -6 1/2) Miami 95 (111) Utah 93 (98) W & W-ATS (Miami -1) Kentucky 75 (72) Notre Dame 74 (58) W & L-ATS (ND +5 1/2) Thursday results - Colts 22 (30) Titans 21 (28) W & W-ATS (Titans +3) Trail Blazers 92.1 (97) W & W-ATS Magic 91.7 (83) It's a Tie!! (POR +2 1/2) Temple 72 (68) G'town 68 (65) W & W-ATS (Temple +2) Weekend action - Navy 31 Army 28 (Army +8) Patriots 24 Bears 21 (NE -3) Chargers 28 Chiefs 18 (Chargers -6 1/2) This is pretty remarkable and doesn't bode well for the Beloved this weekend. Record through Day 3 of tracking - Overall Record - 9-0 Record against the spread - 8-1 |
|
| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Fri Dec 10, 2010 10:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
Couple other pieces of info - Likelihood of winning the NFC North - Bears 44% Packers 56% Likelihood of making the playoffs - Falcons 99% Saints 92% Eagles 82% Packers 74% Bears 67% St. Louis 63% Giants 52% Seattle 34% TB 30% Sangletary Francisco 4% |
|
| Author: | NSJ [ Fri Dec 10, 2010 10:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote: Overall Record - 9-0 Record against the spread - 8-1 If this keeps up, I will take a serious look at it. |
|
| Author: | City of Fools [ Fri Dec 10, 2010 10:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
I run a Yahoo Football pick 'em against the spread and I always set up some dummy pick 'em teams. One of those teams I used Accuscore for and it is in first place by a wide margin.... |
|
| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Mon Dec 13, 2010 11:50 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
Quote: Weekend action - Navy 31 (31) W & L-ATS Army 28 (17) (Army +8) Patriots 24 (36)W & W-ATS Bears 21 (7) (NE -3) Chargers 28 (31)W & W-ATS Chiefs 18 (0) (Chargers -6 1/2) Don't have my paper yet. My delivery guy might be frozen. I've decided on all games where the predicted spread matches the line, I'm going with the team that is favored to win the game. It's more fun to pick a side. I decided that before the Bears game. So, the record through Day 4 is - Overall - 12-0 Record against the spread - 10-2 |
|
| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Mon Dec 13, 2010 5:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
Saw these for tonight but I don't have the paper yet. These are the first ones I've seen that I really question. Indy 102 Bulls 93 Heat 87 New Orleans 98 Balt 27 Hou 23 NYG 24 Minn 22 |
|
| Author: | City of Fools [ Mon Dec 13, 2010 5:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
I could see AccuScore being wrong on the Bulls game.
|
|
| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Mon Dec 13, 2010 5:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
I'm hoping I find the paper so I can see which 3 they had - just to be consistent. |
|
| Author: | NearWessSideHussra [ Mon Dec 13, 2010 6:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
What's the deal with this paper. They have information you can't find online? Really great picks? Ravens should cover the -3 against the 32nd pass defense in the NFL. |
|
| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Tue Dec 14, 2010 9:41 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
Monday predictions / (results) - NYG 24 (21)W & L-ATS MIN 22 (3) (MIN +5) BAL 27 (34) W & W-ATS HOU 23 (28) (BAL -3) Manchester United 2 (1) W & W-ATS Arsenal 1 (0) (?? No spreads on English Premiere League soccer but Man U was favored but they won by at least what WSJ said) Tuesday Predictions - Denver 105 Orlando 104 (Denver +1) Atlanta 97 Detroit 91 (Atlanta -4) Tennessee 78 Oakland 66 (No line yet) Record through Day 5 - Overall 15-0 Record against the spread - 12-3 |
|
| Author: | City of Fools [ Tue Dec 14, 2010 10:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
so you're not counting the Bulls game because there wasn't a spread? |
|
| Author: | NSJ [ Tue Dec 14, 2010 10:34 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
Doc --- If you could provide some more information about what you are tracking, how you are getting your info ("the paper"), that would be great. Monthly subscriptions look to be $80 per month. |
|
| Author: | beni hanna [ Tue Dec 14, 2010 10:43 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
City of Fools wrote: so you're not counting the Bulls game because there wasn't a spread?  Are you suggesting we need a jellybean counter for Dr. Ken and his AccuScore venture? 
|
|
| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Tue Dec 14, 2010 11:00 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
I'm only counting games listed in the Wall Street Journal. They list 3 games each day. The Bulls / Heat games weren't listed. I didn't get my paper yesterday and tried to find something online and found some of those games but I'm not sure it's the same thing. I was able to dig Monday's paper from my neighbor's garbage bins this morning and find the listings. Also, to keep the experiment true, it could be that a single person is choosing the 3 games to list in the WSJ so trying to find other games would be outside the bounds set for this experiment. As for the spreads, I will always bet the WSJ predicted winner when the projection matches the spread. As for English soccer predictions, since there are no spreads on that, if you had bet the money line, you'd have won so I give them a win. I'm just sayin'. |
|
| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Wed Dec 15, 2010 9:54 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
Well, the Wall Street Journal got its ass handed to it last night, finally getting a game wrong. Although, the way Oakland had played Illinois and MSU, you could see they had to get one of these. I'm just crying a river that it was Bruce Pearl's group. They've given us 6 games tonight. Bonus. Tuesday Predictions / (Results)- Denver 105 (111) W & W-ATS Orlando 104 (94) (Denver +1) Atlanta 97 (80) Detroit 91 (103) L & L-ATS (Atlanta -4) Tennessee 78 (82) Oakland 66 (89) L & L-ATS (Tenn -11) Wednesday Predictions - BOS 104 NYK 99 (BOS -3 1/2) DAL 98 POR 90 (DAL -7) OKC 112 HOU 102 (OKC -8) OSU 87 Florida Gulf Coast 48 (I don't think they'll put a line on this game. So, I'll call it OSU -38 / Per Chus -38.5, so OSU is the pick) Minny 78 Akron 56 (Minny -15) South Florida 65 Auburn 60 (Auburn +12) Through Day 6 - Overall 16-2 Record against the spread 13-5 |
|
| Author: | newper [ Wed Dec 15, 2010 10:06 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote: OSU 87 Florida Gulf Coast 48 (I don't think they'll put a line on this game. So, I'll call it OSU -38) It deserves extra credit for picking this game... way to go out on a limb, AccuScore/WSJ. I know you are only dealing with what they publish, but using games like this artificially inflates their record IMHO. I don't have a problem with picking these and adding them to a total as long as you are picking every single game. Once you get to the point of selecting individual games for a day, it gets sort of lame -- especially on a Wednesday. I would even buy it if they were listing all the ranked games, but they don't have the mighty Bethune-Cookman/Baylor clash in there. But North probably does it this way too, so I guess we should compare jellybeans to jellybeans... Good work though Dr. Ken -- I am interested to see if AccuScore can keep up this margin when we get to (typically) more competitive conference play. |
|
| Author: | City of Fools [ Wed Dec 15, 2010 10:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote: Well, the Wall Street Journal got its ass handed to it last night, finally getting a game wrong. Although, the way Oakland had played Illinois and MSU, you could see they had to get one of these. I'm just crying a river that it was Bruce Pearl's group. WYC, Thursdays on the Score. |
|
| Author: | Chus [ Wed Dec 15, 2010 11:50 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
5dimes has the spread in the OSU game at 38.5 |
|
| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Thu Dec 16, 2010 9:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
Things are starting to get ugly. I'm just sayin'. I may soon turn my picks over to the Bookie Investment Banker. Wednesday Predictions / (Results) - BOS 104 (118) W & L-ATS NYK 99 (116) (BOS -3 1/2) DAL 98 (103) W & L-ATS POR 90 (98) (DAL -7) OKC 112 (117) W & W-ATS HOU 102 (105) (OKC -8) OSU 87 (83) W & L-ATS Florida Gulf Coast 48 (55) (I don't think they'll put a line on this game. So, I'll call it OSU -38 / Per Chus -38.5, so OSU is the pick) Minny 78 (66) W & L-ATS Akron 56 (58) (Minny -15) South Florida 65 (61) W & T-ATS Auburn 60 (49) (Auburn +12) Thursday Predictions - Chargers 27 49ers 14 (Chargers -9) Celtics 97 Hawks 86 (Boston -5 1/2) Missouri 83 Oral Roberts 68 (No line yet) Through Day 7 - Overall 22-2 Record against the spread 14-9-1 |
|
| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Fri Dec 17, 2010 9:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
The Wall Street Journal bounces back and says, "F-U, Noisewater, make comments about my picks again and I'm going to cram the Marketplace section down your throat." Thursday Predictions / (Results) - Chargers 27 (34) W & W-ATS 49ers 14 (7) (Chargers -9) Celtics 97 (102) W & W-ATS Hawks 86 (90) (Boston -5 1/2) Missouri 83 (81) W & W-ATS Oral Roberts 68 (62) (Mizzou -13 1/2) Weekend Action - BYU 31 UTEP 23 (UTEP + 11 1/2) NIU 33 Fresno State 28 (NIU -1 1/2) The Journal obviously has no respect for the Kill Factor. Ohio 32 Troy 29 (Ohio +3) Through Day 8 - Overall 25-2 Record against the spread 17-9-1 |
|
| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Mon Dec 20, 2010 9:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
Weekend Action / (Results) - BYU 31 (52) W & L-ATS UTEP 23 (24) (UTEP + 11 1/2) NIU 33 (40) W & W-ATS Fresno State 28 (17) (NIU -1 1/2) The Journal obviously has no respect for the Kill Factor. Ohio 32 (21) L & L-ATS Troy 29 (48) (Ohio +3) Monday Predictions - Bears 20 IceKings 16 (Vikings +9) Hawks 94 Magic 93 (Hawks +2 1/2) Manchester City 2 Everton 1 (Manchester favored) Through Day 9 - Overall 27-3 Record against the spread 18-11-1 |
|
| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Tue Dec 21, 2010 9:26 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AccuScore Predictions |
Monday Predictions / (Results) - Bears 20 (40) W & L-ATS IceKings 16 (14) (Vikings +9) Hawks 94 (91) W & W-ATS Magic 93 (81) (Hawks +2 1/2) Manchester City 2 (1) L & L-ATS Everton 1 (2) (Manchester favored) Tuesday Predictions - Southern Miss 31 Louisville 30 (Southern Miss +2 1/2) Kansas State 68 UNLV 67 (UNLV +4 1/2) Magic 94 Mavericks 92 (Mavericks +3 1/2) Through Day 10 - Overall 29-4 Record against the spread 19-13-1 |
|
| Page 1 of 1 | All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ] |
| Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group https://www.phpbb.com/ |
|