College week 0
All 1 *
Michigan State -6.5 v Boise
Tennessee -3 -120 v NC State
San Jose St + 26 @ Stanford

Coast good to hear from you and I hope things are well. Looking forward to a great year of college football. Any teams out there that intrigue you and you are looking at from the outset?

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2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

The annual internal conflict.

Welcome back. With you on Michigan State tongith

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

yes it is. I have taken sjsu in this most years, and now the cardinal has no Luck and 2 seasons removed from harbaugh. i expect stanford to slip this year. a veteran team getting 26 in a rivalry just too tempting.

Tenn NCS under 52.5, 1*
I have a lot of respect for O'Brien but think Vols D will be very good. Big Orange 27-16

week 0:2-2


Cowboys-Giants over 45.5
Early season games between these two have generally been high scoring and both Os seem pretty healthy and ready.

Northwestern-Vandy over 54
Same ole purple. They can score but cannot defend. I will look at overs until the numbers on them move higher or they play a top D that will shut them down. Vandy didn't do much offensively vs. So Car, but the Cocks have a big D. Rogers should have a big day.

Ariz St -3 -125 vs. Illini
Missed posting the best number but will still buy here. A middling Mac coach for the Illini? Seriously? Would Doctor Ken hire an accountant with a 2.0 GPA from a second rate school? Nope, and neither should the Illini hire a guy with a mediocre record in the Mac. They should have higher standards than that. First year in the Beckmann era likely to be painful for Illini fans. Schelhaase not being 100% a big factor as dropoff to backup is steep.

Somebody has to drive my car.

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You know me like that.

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So you're saying I have a chance .....

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Power is always in the hands of the masses of men. What oppresses the masses is their own ignorance, their own short-sighted selfishness.
- Henry George

Florida +1 @ Texas AM
Welcome to the SEC, Aggies. Speed --especially on defense-- kills. The under is also really tempting.

Three unders with favorites that I think will have trouble scoring a lot of points today:
Texas AM -Florida under 49.5
Wisconsin-Oregon State under 49.5
Stanford-Duke under 56

I don't spend much time thinking about the best teams or rankings, but look for teams that are over- or under-valued in the market.

Teams I am looking to play ON (depending on lines of course):
Oregon State
Arkansas State
Texas State


Teams I am looking to play AGAINST:
Penn State
Stanford
Illinois

He went 17-7 in conference, and 14-2 in his final two seasons. But, you know, don't let facts get in the way of your pissy narrative.

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Fire Phil Emery

I recognize that fans, lawyers and politicians like to select only certain facts to support their point of view. That may work for some fans, juries and voters, but it's not good practice for picking CEOs or investing. The relevant, complete facts are that he was 21-16 straight up and 19-18 against the spread in 3 years coaching in a weak conference. That is mediocre in my world. If you think those are acceptable qualifications for a CEO or an investment, then I guess our standards are different.

Citing a coaches record against the spread as evidence of his ability is literally one of the stupidest arguments I've ever seen on this board. In a basically efficient market, every head coach's record tends towards .500. But you know that.

As for his record straight-up, that's almost as stupid. Would he be that much better if Toledo had scheduled Louisiana-Monroe and San Jose State instead of Ohio State and Boise State? Would he be a great hire if Big East refs could correctly call a PAT? Context matters. But you know that too.

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Fire Phil Emery

[quote="Irish Boy"]Citing a coaches record against the spread as evidence of his ability is literally one of the stupidest arguments I've ever seen on this board. In a basically efficient market, every head coach's record tends towards .500. But you know that.

As for his record straight-up, that's almost as stupid. Would he be that much better if Toledo had scheduled Louisiana-Monroe and San Jose State instead of Ohio State and Boise State? Would he be a great hire if Big East refs could correctly call a PAT? Context matters. But you know that too.[/]

ATS is a measure of meeting the market's expectations. it is the coaching equivalent of a CEO meeting earnings expectations. The best coaches meet and exceed them most seasons and are around 57% for their career, not 50%.

As far as record, yes it matters too. The best coaches in mid-majors do much better than Beckmann did. They occasionally beat teams they aren't supposed to beat.

You see things as a fan.I see them as an investor. I don't think that makes either argument stupid. But you know that.

There's a simple proof that shows you are full of shit here. If you believed what you are saying, you'd take the top five head coaches in college football and just bet their teams week after week. A good year for you (or anyone) is, what, 55%. You seem to think you can beat that by just pounding the top coaches. You don't do that for a reason.

It's also fun to be lectured by a lobbyist on selective use of data.

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Fire Phil Emery

Enough of the arguments over insignificant points. There are plenty of other sections to argue. This section is to pick winners and discuss how we are going to get them

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Cincinnati +7
The market says Ravens. Is the ghost of Art Modell worth 3 points or something? That "dead owner inspiration" if that is what is causing people to bet Ravens is just the kind of thing that brings value to the dog. Not having Terrell Suggs is a - to this Ravens D and until they prove they don't miss him too much, his absence is more significant IMO than the dead owner angle. I take value as I find it.

Week 1: 4-4
Season:6-6
6-4 college, 0-2 NFL

Florida +3 @ Tennessee
I give edges on D, special teams and coaching to Gators. Tenn gets edge on O and home field.

I hate going against you, but I think I'm going the other way.

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Ariz St-Missouri over 58.5
Texas -Mississippi over 51
Texas AM -SMU over 61

I see soft road favorites like Oakland, Dallas, Wash, Minn. getting a lot of love today. I will let other guys play that road chalk against "bad" teams.

6 pt teasers
Giants -1/Bengals -1
Giants -1/Chargers -1/2

At least two of those teams will lose straight up.

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Not bad. All four of them lost.

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

I was told by a number of D-1 football types that alumns could live with losses so long as spreads were covered at least 2/3 of the time.

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You got a little Spmack in ya, always looking to start trouble.

_________________
2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

Ok Carrie

_________________
2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

_________________
2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

One game does not prove whether a guy is a good hire or a good coach. Ultimately, Beckman's fate will probably lie in his ability to pick the right guys to coach defense, given his pretty lousy track record on that side of the ball, and his ability to recruit top tier big ten quality athletes, of which he had few at Toledo. Do the best high school kids believe in him and want to play for a guy with his midmajor pedigree? Can he get enough of the best kids each year to move the program up from where it was when he took over? Remains to be seen.

Football is tough that way. It seems it is easier for a midmajor basketball coach to move up to a top conference and recruit one or two top kids a year (see Iowa's McCaffrey or Illini's Groce) that advance the program than it is for a football coach to move up to recruit a higher level athlete and convince 10 or more top kids each year or however many is necessary to improve the talent level overall.