Coast, never let it be said you aren't a man of honor.
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| Tourney Totals - Calling Coast to Coast https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=56807 |
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| Author: | Beardown [ Mon Mar 14, 2011 5:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Tourney Totals - Calling Coast to Coast |
We'd all appreciate it Coast. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Wed Mar 16, 2011 11:23 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Tourney Totals - Calling Coast to Coast |
Full disclosure: It hasn't been a great year. I have a winning record on totals, but not enough to cover the juice and make any money. Did well last week though so maybe the worm has turned. Last week, the value was with unders. This week, it's with overs. Not all of the games are available to be bet right now with full limits (only some books have all the games), so I will post them as they become widely available. Should have at least the Thursday NCAA games tonight. Wednesday: Southern Cal-VCU OVER 127.5 (1*) Texas Southern-Colorado OVER 143 (1*) Weber State-Oregon OVER 138.5 (2**) Idaho-San Francisco OVER 134.5 (1*) |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Wed Mar 16, 2011 9:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Tourney Totals - Calling Coast to Coast |
Thursday NCAA Totals Michigan State-UCLA over 125 (2**) Missouri-Cincinnati over 137 (1*) Gonzaga-St. Johns over 135 (1*) Friday NCAA Totals Villanova-George Mason over 135-1/2 (2**) Marquette-Xavier over 140 (1*) Memphis-Arizona over 139 (1*) Illinois-UNLV over 132-1/2 (1*) |
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| Author: | Regular Reader [ Wed Mar 16, 2011 9:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Tourney Totals - Calling Coast to Coast |
Coast, never let it be said you aren't a man of honor.
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| Author: | newper [ Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Tourney Totals - Calling Coast to Coast |
Coast, how do you feel about FSU/ND over the 131.5 today along with a smaller play of Washington/UNC under that 158.5 figure. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Sun Mar 20, 2011 11:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Tourney Totals - Calling Coast to Coast |
Newper, I was going to bet the ND-FSU game under the 134.5 when it opened, but it was available only briefly at low limits. By the time it was open for widespread betting at full limits, it had dropped to 131. The under isn't playable there for me, but for me to play over on this game, the number would need to be about 125. I guess it comes down to how you see the game being played. I think that FSU's tempo and defense are going to extend ND possession times and I'm expecting a pace around 63. And ND did play at that pace for much of the season. Their overall season pace is 64.6 (NCAA avg. 66.7). And while FSU's average pace is higher, that is skewed by the fast teams they played in the ACC. And with FSU's propensity for turnovers, it's hard for me to think they are going to exceed 1 pt. per possession. If you think ND will be able to execute offensively as they have against most other opponents, then you might like over. But if you think that, then maybe ND - is a better play. The total is not a play for me. The other game I expect to be a track meet. The 158 number seemed sharp to me. The only total I have any lean to at the current numbers today is Ohio State-Mason over 135. But the lean isn't strong enough to make a regular play. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Sun Mar 20, 2011 12:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Tourney Totals - Calling Coast to Coast |
I should add the other play I am considering today is Illinois-Kansas under tonight. I may end up playing that one, especially if it moves up any. I think Illinois has the significant possibility of slowing down KU's offense and cutting down the number of transition points KU gets. And if they do that and make it a half court game, I think Ill can stay in that game. And if all that happens, then we might be looking at a grinder in the 60s. If KU scores in transitiion a lot, the game will get ugly and the over will be more likely. If you look at how Illinois has played the best/fast teams this year, they have generally controlled pace. The only exceptions were Maryland and NC early in the season, but ILL was ahead in both those games and were scoring pretty easily, which pushed the pace up. I don't think they are going to find the scoring easy today. If Illinois can keep pace around 65, this one stays under. |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Sun Mar 20, 2011 12:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Tourney Totals - Calling Coast to Coast |
These are todays O/U, he does not like any of them, as I can't show you here but they are all in the yellow zone which he considers weak plays. His O/U in the tourney have been 12-2 on good plays Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% Calc Play 730 7:10 PM VCU vs PURDUE 135 131.0 Under 56.8 Calc --> Play 734 8:40 PM ILLINOIS vs KANSAS 144 147.3 Over 55.0 Calc --> Play 720 2:45 PM MICHIGAN vs DUKE 136 138.5 Over 54.0 Calc --> Play 732 6:10 PM ARIZONA vs TEXAS 139 141.1 Over 53.5 Calc --> Play 728 9:40 PM FLA. ST. vs NOTRE DAME 134 132.1 Under 53.2 Calc --> Play 726 7:45 PM MARQUETTE vs SYRACUSE 140 138.6 Under 52.3 Calc --> Play 722 12:15 PM WASHINGTON vs UNC 157 155.7 Under 51.7 Calc --> Play 724 5:15 PM GEORGE MASON vs OHIO STATE 135.5 136.2 Over 51.2 Calc --> Play In the picks above, Margin, Points For, Points Against and Total Points are averages from 50,000 games played. The Win% ATS is the percentage of games in which the team picked covers the noted spread. Similarly, the Pick% in the Over/Under table is the percentage of time that the Over or Under pick covers the total. These values represent the Predictalator's confidence in the pick and are used in the Play Value Key and Calculator. With all plays assumed to be -110, anything less than 52.38% confidence is not considered to be a worthwhile pick. To alter odds, click on "Calc" and adjust the Odds in the Play Value Calculator. Clicking on the "Play" button will allow you to run that game through the Customizable Predictalator. An "Upset Watch" icon will appear next to games where we believe the underdog is more like than not to win outright. Picks will be updated as needed due to injury (up to one hour before game time). |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Sun Mar 20, 2011 2:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Tourney Totals - Calling Coast to Coast |
Looks like somebody likes both my leans. BW hit Ohio State over pretty hard and moved the line 3 points to 138.5. Too late to play that one. KU-Illinois has moved off 146.5 and coming down. Now or never. I bought a little at under 146. I thought the early move over might have been a head fake. A guy I trust said it was real, but still not sure about that. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Mon Mar 21, 2011 10:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Tourney Totals - Calling Coast to Coast |
Geez, my leans are better than my 2** plays. One Monday night Davidson-Creighton over 138 |
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| Author: | Chus [ Mon Mar 21, 2011 8:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Tourney Totals - Calling Coast to Coast |
Coast2Coast wrote: Geez, my leans are better than my 2** plays. One Monday night Davidson-Creighton over 138 99 at halftime. 
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Tue Mar 22, 2011 3:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Tourney Totals - Calling Coast to Coast |
Santa Clara-USF Under 145.5 I know that some people think all these games are worth looking at over because teams are playing happy fun ball, the pressure of the conference and conf. tourney grind is over and that when strangers meet in post-season, the offenses have an advantage. But here we have two conference and “neighborhood” rivals who know each other very well. Both games they played this season were lined and landed under this number. When two teams know each other’s stuff so well, and defenses know what to do when they see certain sets being run, it’s worth quite a bit to the under. Sure, these teams could play a street game, but these coaches can be control freaks. And they need this W to get into the “final 4”…even if it’s for a BS tournament like this. I think the odds are better than even that this game looks a lot like the other two – pace under 70 and defenses holding each other at or below 1.0 efficiency. I make this 140 so I’ll take the value as I find it. |
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