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used the Predictalator on Thursday, went 7-1 The whole system was 8-3-1 of his 12 top picks, made more than enough $$$ to pay for today as well, plus someone else was paying for today.
Here are his top 4 for today
ATS Lock of the Day: Marquette +1.5 over Xavier (Covers 61.1%)
The Predictalator continues its love of the Big East (and teams from the state of Wisconsin - ATS at least) Marquette, a .500 Big East team, is favored to win outright over Xavier, a 15-1 A-10 team. Xavier has actually already played two Big East teams already, which happened to combine to go .500. The Musketeers won by just six over Seton Hall and were then destroyed by 20 points at Cincinnati.
Tu Holloway is the best player in this game and Xavier has a decent edge in rebounding, but the better overall team is Marquette. The Golden Eagles played the 12th toughest schedule in the country, going 20-14 and ranking tenth offensively and 46th defensively in our efficiency metrics. Xavier played the 75th toughest schedule and went 24-7. The Musketeers rank 24th offensively and 64th defensively. Marquette is better in general in both phases of the game.
Fortunately, simulation allows to account for every player in the game and opportunities for matchups to be exploited, so we can track how Holloway is capable of impacting this game and if the rebounding deficiency will doom Marquette. That is enough to keep this from being a blowout, but not enough to keep the Predictalator from projecting an upset. Marquette wins outright 57.0% of the time and by an average score of 70.0 - 67.5. As 1.5-point underdogs, Marquette covers the number 61.1% of the time, which would warrant a $92 play from a normal $50 player. Despite two top 25 offenses, the posted total is a little aggressive at 140, so the UNDER covers 53.9% of the time, which is weak, but playable.
Other ATS Paul's Pick of the Day: #8 Michigan +1.5 over #9 Tennessee (Covers 59.7%)
The bettors must love Tennessee. Maybe we just love teams from the Big Ten and/or the state of Michigan, but I just don't get the Volunteer love. To me, this looks like fair seeding by the selection committee. Both teams faced tough schedules, failed to reach 20 wins (over DI opponents) and went .500 in conference. The difference is that the Big Ten is much better than the SEC (and Bruce Pearl missing time is not enough to counteract that).
The Wolverines played the eighth toughest schedule in the nation, winning 19 of 32 (over DI opponents) and ranking 18th offensively and 51st defensively. Tennessee played the 26th toughest schedule, also winning 19 games (of 33) and ranking 91st offensively and 50th defensively in our metrics. The defensive numbers are almost identical. The offensive difference is too big to ignore (let alone to like Tennessee at all). The Volunteers shoot just 43.3% from the field, 68.3% from the line and 30.4% from the behind the arc. They also turn the ball over almost exactly one-in-five times down the floor (ranking 134th in turnover percentage). Michigan (having faced better competition) shoots 44.4%, 69.6% and 35.3% respectively. As a typical, methodical John Beilein-coached team, Michigan only turns the ball over 16.6% of the time (13th best in the country).
Tenth seeded Michigan wins straight-up over Tennessee 55.2% of the time and by an average score of 63.7 - 62.1. As 1.5-point underdogs, Michigan covers the spread 59.7% of the time, which would warrant a $77 play from a normal $50 player. In this case, the 127.5-point total is appropriate and not playable.
Other ATS Paul's Pick of the Day: #3 Syracuse -11 over #14 Indiana State (Covers 59.3%)
The lone big favorite amongst our top plays/"Paul's Picks," it takes a very strong team in a unique position to be expected to win by this many points far more often than not. Indiana State got a little love from the committee for winning an over-hyped Missouri Valley conference and the bettors have followed suit with that love. Indiana State ranks behind three of the four 15 seeds in our Power Rankings (all the way down at 147). Larry Bird is not suiting up for the Sycamores. In truth, the MVC champs just put together a bit of a fluke run in the conference tournament and are now staring at one of the more dangerous teams in the tournament.
Syracuse played the 20th toughest schedule, winning 26 of 33 games and ranking 22nd offensively and sixth defensively. The Orange have one of the few teams in the tournament without a glaring weakness - which is parlayed into an Elite Eight run in our Predictalated Bracket. Indiana State played the 123rd toughest schedule, going 19-13 (over DI opponents) and ranking 185th in offense and 122nd in defense in our efficiency metrics. Granted, there are 345 DI teams, but that's still not very good. The Sycamores are essentially the opposite of Syracuse, a team without a discernible strength (at least relative to NCAA competition). Indiana State is not even senior-laden or star-driven, which are often characteristics of worse seeds that can make a run.
Third seeded Syracuse blows out fourteenth seeded Indiana State 88.5% of the time and by an average score of 73.2 - 57.2. Winning by 16 points on average, the Orange cover the spread 59.3% of the time, which would warrant a $73 play from a normal $50 player. Playing along with the theme that Indiana State is being over-valued, it seems the Sycamores' defense is as well when it comes to the total line. The OVER (128) covers 54.1% of the time, which is weak, but playable.
Other ATS Paul's Pick of the Day: #9 Illinois +1.5 over #8 UNLV (Covers 59.1%)
Admittedly, this pick is a little tough because UNLV appears to be the best eight seed in the tournament. That's unfortunate for the Runnin' Rebels (it may be worse news for Kansas), who take on the best nine seed in Illinois. The Illini have a team that we identified before the tournament as one that could make a surprising run. They are a classic sleeper team with balance, experience and no glaring weakness. At that time, we assumed they would get a double-digit seed. Maybe the committee read our tweets, because Illinois got a surprising seed. Their still better than a nine. UNLV looked to be in a similar position, entering the tournament with just one loss against a non-tournament team (vs. Colorado State). The matchup just doesn't work in the Rebels' favor.
Illinois faced the ninth toughest schedule in the country, going 19-13 and ranking 20th offensively and 25th defensively. More importantly, that balance extends to every position and in just about every facet of the game (beyond just "offense" and "defense"). UNLV faced the 57th toughest schedule, going 24-8 and ranking 46th offensively and 13th defensively. Despite the defensive edge, there is not anything that jumps out as an exploitable matchup opportunity for UNLV (save for the Lon Kruger taking on one of his old programs factor).
After 50,000 simulations, Illinois wins outright over UNLV 54.7% of the time and by an average score of 67.4 - 65.8. The Illini cover a 1.5-point line 59.1% of the time, which would warrant a $71 play from a normal $50 player. The 132-point total is appropriate and not playable.
_________________
"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”
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