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| Sunday - Predictalator https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=56995 |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Sun Mar 20, 2011 7:14 am ] |
| Post subject: | Sunday - Predictalator |
OK not impressed with todays action as only one game is even rated "Normal" but had such a good run can't complain. ATS Lock of the Day: Notre Dame -5 over Florida State (Covers 58.3%) It is important to note right off the bat, that there is not nearly as much individual value with top ATS picks on Sunday as we have seen up to this point in the tournament. This is typically the case. Competition gets better and bettors learn more about each team. Last year, a similar phenomenon appeared when we had a tremendous first three days of the tournament. Our subscribers' bankrolls grew, which is great, but so did their confidence in our picks. Meanwhile, our confidence in our own picks was headed in the opposite direction (that's natural). Many subscribers loaded up more than they should on the top play of the day despite the fact that it was only a 58% play, while many plays earlier in the week had been well over 60%. Please follow the play value calculator recommendations for each game. "Normal" values (1%-3% of bankroll) should be higher for games for those who have been playing our picks because bankrolls should be growing, but it is very important to use our confidence in these picks to guide strategy. "Lock" of the day means a little something different. In this case, Notre Dame (-5) is the only pick that qualifies as "normal" or better. So, while we don't have extremely strong opinions on a few games, the value is in diversification. There are five ATS picks that cover 55%+ - the three listed here, Texas (-5.5) and Duke (-11.5). My general recommendation would be to use the play value calculations to play each of these five games (and even the other "playable" games, especially if line changes strengthen those picks). Marginal per-game value may be lower, but gross winnings should be comparable to playing just the Paul's Picks on Thursday or Friday. There are also five playable totals, two of which still exceed 55%. On to today's top play... It's strength versus strength when Notre Dame takes on Florida State on Sunday. The Fightin' Irish, having faced the 14th toughest schedule to go 27-6, have the most efficient scoring team in the country in our strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted metrics. The Seminoles, who played against the 50th toughest schedule, have the fifth best overall defensive team, with the country's best shooting defense. The numbers favor Notre Dame because Florida State is so ineffective offensively. Even with a healthy Chris Singleton, Florida State has the 190th best offense. Notre Dame may not be great defensively, yet the Irish still rank 40th overall. Even if Notre Dame struggles to shoot as well as usual against FSU, it is unlikely that the Seminoles can put together enough offense to compete in this game. And while I understand that Florida State handed us one of just four losses in our first 17 normal or better picks, one of the main reasons for our loss (FSU's win) came from Texas A&M's 47.4% free-throw shooting, which was uncharacteristic of the team and not impacted by FSU's defense. Notre Dame wins outright 73.2% of the time and by an average score of 70.1 - 62.0. As five-point favorites, Notre Dame covers the number 58.3% of the time, which would warrant a $62 play from a normal $50 player. With FSU's great defense and poor offense dictating much of the tempo, the UNDER (134) is weak, but playable. Other ATS Paul's Pick of the Day: #11 Marquette +4.5 over #3 Syracuse (Covers 56.6%) Yes, this is a "weak," pick, but it is also the second strongest. It is definitely playable (especially if the line moves with a stronger lean towards Syracuse), but please note the strength of the pick. We loved both of these teams heading into Friday and both covered pretty easily. At the time, we liked Marquette a little more (+1.5 was a 61.1% favorite to cover) than Syracuse and the Golden Eagles covered by a little more than the Orange did (Marquette covered by 12.5, while Syracuse covered by six). Marquette defeated Syracuse at home, 76-70, in their matchup on January 29th. Not enough has changed between these teams to assume that the outcome will change by more than ten points on a neutral court. Marquette has played the 12th toughest schedule, going 21-14 and ranking ninth offensively and 48th defensively. Offensively, the Golden Eagles are very balanced and among the country's top 50 teams in just about every relevant category. They'll need that offense when they take on Syracuse and the Orange's 2-3 zone. Syracuse played the 22nd toughest schedule, going 27-7 and ranking 23rd offensive and seventh defensively. The Orange are strong overall, yet have weaknesses getting to the line and keeping opponents off the offensive glass. Marquette should get enough second-chance opportunities to keep this a close game throughout. Syracuse wins outright over Marquette 55.5% of the time and by an average score of 70.2 - 68.3 - the closest game on Sunday. As 4.5-point underdogs, Marquette covers the spread 56.6% of the time, which would warrant a $44 play from a normal $50 player. The 140-point total is appropriate and not playable. Other ATS Paul's Pick of the Day: #1 Ohio State -11 over #8 George Mason (Covers 56.6%) Ohio State is the best team in the tournament and still our most likely eventual champion. A George Mason fan asked me before the tournament how to beat Ohio State. It's not easy. The only teams - Purdue and Wisconsin - that have done it this year have top four seeds in the tournament, were playing at home, got Ohio State in foul trouble and had incredible shooting days. And both of those teams lost by double-digits in Columbus. George Mason is a legitimate eight seed and this game is Ohio. The only chance the Patriots have is to shoot lights out, especially from deep, and force a thin Ohio State team to go deep into its bench due to foul trouble. And even then, Ohio State is so well crafted that it would take multiple players in the seven-man rotation going down to feel comfortable that this would be close. The outlook for GMU looks bleak. Ohio State, our top-ranked team in the tournament, played the 27th toughest schedule, going 33-2 and also winning over both of the teams that beat it. The Buckeyes rank second in our offensive efficiency rankings and 11th in our defensive metrics. George Mason, out of the Colonial Athletic Association - also home to VCU and Old Dominion - has faced the 103rd toughest schedule, going 27-6 with three losses to teams that did not make the tournament (Dayton, Hofstra and NC State). The Patriots rank 30th offensively and 39th defensively in our metrics. George Mason is not bad, but Ohio State is too good for the Patriots. Expect a double-digit win. Ohio State wins straight-up 85.5% of the time and by an average score of 75.5 - 60.8. As 11.5-point favorites who win by almost 15 points on average, the Buckeyes cover the spread 56.6% of the time, which would warrant a $44 play from a normal $50 player. The 135.5-point total is appropriate and not playable. |
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